People came to very faulty conclusions when the 2021 Taliban takeover unfolded in Afghanistan. The Taliban government is being painted as an invincible force in Afghanistan and why not—they own the moment and are living it. At present, they ride the crest and have bragging rights. Yet, it was these very same Taliban who vanished in 2001 because they realised they could never have faced the onslaught that they saw coming their way.
They could not stand their ground and defend what was then in their possession, being effectively routed when under pressure. They were far better prepared then, amply warned and more deeply entrenched than they are now, armed with a far more committed faith at the time. So what has changed after 20 years, is the question people are asking.
Most do not understand the nuances of tribal warfare; when a tribe realises that it lacks the capacity to acquire an objective or sustain it if they acquire it, they quietly withdraw, allowing its enemy to possess it. It is not defeat but a sustained grudge and must never be misconstrued to be forgotten or forgiven. It’s simply how tribal warfare has always been fought, executed, and prosecuted.
The tribe waits and has the patience to wait for even a thousand years, to gain capacity and wherewithal to once again acquire the objective they lost. The underlying principle here is that the tribe never forgets. A famous anecdote illustrates this matter and it goes like this: in 1947, the last political agent was holding his farewell in the frontier regions of Dera Ismail Khan. The political agent was respected far and wide, had a very good reputation amongst the tribesmen, and was wholly accepted by all. Yet, during his last address, a young boy in his early teens, walked into the darbar and pulled out a .303 rifle from under his chador and before anyone had time to react or respond, he shot the political agent.
The boy when taken into custody and questioned as to why did he do such a thing, he said, “My father was killed by the British and my mother told me that the British are leaving, if this political agent leaves, and there are no Englishmen left here, how will you exact revenge for your father, and we shall be destined to live in disgrace forever?”
As such, in keeping with tribal tradition, the mainstay of the Taliban sweep across Afghanistan was a consequence of patience, the art of waiting it out, honed and developed to a fault. The tribes have evolved patience into a principle of war, which conventional warfighting neither understands nor recognises. A lesson that the West has never learned at their own peril. The Taliban having concluded that the West could never effectively govern Afghanistan for any given time, continually engaged them in a conflict of attrition impacting on the coalition’s respective national treasure, resources, and lives.
It was a question of time before the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) would have to decide to withdraw or suffer the consequences of a no-win no-lose war. The Taliban waited for the moment—20 years in the making. Pashtun culture, customs, and traditions welcome aliens with a famous warning, “You may have the watches but it is we who have the time.” It was always very clear that the United States would eventually have to leave Afghanistan.
Yet if the US had not left the way that it did; irresponsibly, in indecent haste, and without a plan, the Taliban advance could have been more graduated, incremental, and progressive, allowing the Taliban to organise a structured change of government in Afghanistan.
The Taliban advance was a product of a vacuum created by the US’s hasty withdrawal and the sudden collapse of the Afghan government. This has put the Taliban leadership into a difficult situation where a near-anarchy exists in Afghanistan and the propaganda mills are churning out conspiracies and stories to defame the Taliban as much as possible. Criminal elements are running amok, taking advantage of the overall situation and giving a bad name to the Taliban.
On the other hand, the spectacular sweep of the Taliban forces is creating a perception of extraordinary proportions allowing ultra-religious groups to mislead society and bring about wrong conclusions. Obscurantists are using the occasion to promote and impose their dogmatic, highly conservative, and traditional thought amongst people in general and respective national political processes in particular.
The Taliban were propelled to power mainly because of their popularity with the people, a popularity measured on a strictly relative basis; for want of a better way to put it, they were the far lesser evil that the people had gotten used to living with. The sitting government of Afghanistan projected a highly questionable administration and police that was corrupt to the core, narco-influenced, unjust on all accounts, heavily parochial, and laced with nepotism; just as it was with the warlords the last time around in the early 1990s.
Besides, the former Afghan government was seen as an artificial authority sitting in the lap of a foreign occupation force ruling only to benefit themselves and never the people. The US withdrawal allowed the Taliban the space that they could occupy almost by default, without any violent resistance. Their ascent to power was further accelerated by a universal collapse of the Afghan National Army and the National Directorate of Security on account of people lynching and stoning them in the streets.
There were no running battles of any real significance where one may conclude with any reasonable logic that the Taliban fought their way through heavy resistance and executed military maneuvers of great consequence. The so-called warlords either capitulated or fled as did the leadership of the Afghan government. So now that the Taliban are precariously perched at the top of the Afghan government, one needs to take stock of the environment as it stands.
In Panjshir, the stirrings of resistance seem to be gathering momentum. Hostile agencies are trying to find space to exploit. The Taliban must search for an appropriate bone to throw at Massoud without compromising their values or position. The sophisticated approach to pacify a world caught up in suspicion, rumour, and conspiracy against the Taliban is the need of the time. To secure international assistance and cooperation in stabilising Afghanistan is the need.
Pakistan must stand out in providing direction, guidance, and assistance in these matters. The Taliban must move towards an all-encompassing government to include representation of all Afghan people regardless of ethnicity or ideology. Now that the Taliban have succeeded, this success as it is perceived by Pakistan is far better than any unified Afghan government that was in place.
The Taliban are displaying two streams: the leadership and the rank and file. The former is projecting a mature outlook and are trying to show the world how changed they are and how moderate their political and social dispensation is; however, the latter paint a wild picture of a typical uneducated mob. For the Taliban government in Afghanistan, there are two huge tasks, i.e. trying to cobble together an inclusive government and to maintain control over an exuberant rank and file.
In both matters, there could be differences of opinion amongst the Taliban which could lead to animosity, internal division and conflict, but if these are handled correctly, then, Afghanistan may finally find the stability it has been in search of for decades. Pakistan has the credibility to provide arbitration in these matters, from the perspective of an honest broker. From a Pakistani point of view, there are many who are celebrating the idea of the Taliban success. This is justified when seen in the light of hostile agencies using Afghan soil to perpetuate terrorism in Pakistan. This was done through the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a defeated entity, that had fled Pakistan only to find refuge under a hostile Afghan government.
Nevertheless, if this celebration of a Taliban victory in Afghanistan is on account of illusions that a similar takeover would be welcome in Pakistan, then such celebration is misplaced and will hopefully be short lived. I do not know any Pakistani who wants to be governed by the Taliban or their style of governance. So if anything, the government in Pakistan must ensure that people with such obscurant views do not force themselves on to society and that people are protected from extreme views and not coerced into joining mobs demanding a Taliban outlook of administration and governance.
If one examines the Afghan phenomenon, one would quickly come to the conclusion that the Taliban were actually supported by the people. This was on account of a despotic, artificial government where corruption prevailed, injustice was so evident and parochialism, nepotism and favouritism over-ruled merit and individual rights. If the government here in Pakistan wants to avoid extremism, then first and foremost it needs to address these very issues here in Pakistan and give people a sense of ownership and national belonging.
So for Pakistan, the future can be very lucrative and beneficial provided the relevant safeguards are taken to ensure sustained internal stability. Pakistan can also extend a huge help to Afghanistan to quickly establish itself as a stable country.
Pakistan has earned the right to have a say in the affairs of the region involving itself and Afghanistan. Pakistan paid the maximum price for a destabilized Afghanistan over the decades, and it sustained Afghanistan during a critical moment in history for the Afghans as well as for itself. It is not unnatural for Pakistan to now set a course that is beneficial both to Afghanistan as well as Pakistan, something that cannot be at the exclusion of the other.
If you want to submit your articles and/or research papers, please check the Submissions page.
The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
