Introduction
Africa has long been subjected to revolutions and insurgencies, and it appears that the revolution itself fuels further revolution. The remote part of Africa, the Sahel, has been under Jihadist insurgency since 2003, leading to several conflict re-ignitions in the region, including the Mali War, and the Boko Haram insurgency. Though the definition of the Sahel may vary, it generally comprises Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea. Within this region, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have had their elected pro-western governments overthrown by the militants.
Recently, all three of them withdrew from the G5 Sahel alliance. Mali was the first to back down in 2022, followed by Niger and Burkina Faso’s withdrawal in 2023. The remaining members of the framework, Chad and Mauritania, announced the dissolution of the G5 the same year. Moreover, all three states were suspended members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional alliance of 15 West African states. In February 2024, the three states announced their joint exit from ECOWAS based on a few criticisms of the alliance; however, their suspension has resulted in the Nigerian crisis, where Nigeria suffers from multiple security challenges.
On September 16, 2023, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger came together to form a defense agreement after signing the Liptako-Gourma Charter. The signing of this charter gives the impression of a first step towards a new initiative, the Alliance of the Sahel States (AES), irrespective of the previously signed charters.
Breaking Bonds and Transforming Alliances
The declaration of the joint exit of the three nations—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso— from the ECOWAS on 28th January 2024, was fueled by three criticisms of the regional alliance. The resentment shown was because ECOWAS had drifted away from its foundational vision, with foreign interventions influencing the alliance. The second criticism was that the ECOWAS had not provided sufficient support against the insurgency in these nations and had not addressed the displacement of millions of people.
Lastly, the nations also added that the regional alliance had imposed unfair sanctions on the measures taken within the nations to counter the atrocities, which has only fueled the hardships of the societies that have already been afflicted due to these conflicts. It is to be noted that this withdrawal has resulted in rising economic, diplomatic, and security tensions within West Africa, posing a challenge for the ECOWAS to collaborate economically and provide measures against rising insurgency within West Africa.
However, within the remote area of the Sahel, the regional alliance formed between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso on September 16, 2023, provides a step ahead from the past initiatives, aiming for more than just defense cooperation. It calls for a paradigm shift, excelling towards a robust relationship with the potential for a confederal framework.
The ministries of the respective nations within this alliance have agreed on the creation of a confederation, marked by treaties that would assert the power to common bodies to govern policies within their respective nations. The confederation, unlike a federation, aims at establishing the protection of the sovereignty of its members in light of international law.
Motivating Factors Behind the Sahel Confederation
The ministers of the three states had a meeting on February 15, 2023, to discuss the confederation and its prospects. A draft treaty was formed between the Sahel states, advocating for the formation of a “joint force of the AES countries.” It was declared at the conference that this joint force would be operational as soon as possible.
Several underlying factors are present behind this union. There are prospects for economic development since these three countries are among the poorest ones in the world with high poverty levels, weak agricultural sectors, and a lack of access to basic necessities. Pooling of wealth through this alliance is one way out of this situation. Other than this, the economies of these nations are complementary to one another, composed of natural resources and manufacturing potential, which can ultimately pave the path for economic growth.
The Sahel region is located in an important geostrategic position within West Africa, which further allows these nations to strengthen political and economic ties and counterbalance regional and international situations. Furthermore, the alliance can help the nations work in synergy in various sectors and foster regional stability, cultural exchanges, and commercial benefits through trade between the three nations.
Potential Challenges for the Integration of the Confederation
Various challenges are in front of these three nations, which can potentially hinder the adequate implementation of policies under the confederation. ECOWAS has offered to lift sanctions on these states if they rejoin the alliance, but the lack of enthusiasm of the three nations to pursue membership in ECOWAS can cause complications in the economic landscapes of these nations.
The Sahel nations are large exporters of raw materials, which has limited economic benefits for their citizens. Whereas, ECOWAS aims to cooperate on the basis of a common currency and open borders. Therefore, the confederation is likely to suffer heavily with weaker access to global markets if the nations are still landlocked. From all this, it can be deduced that if the three members leave ECOWAS for good, they can easily lose their access to a plethora of economic reforms provided through the Ivory Coast which is the host to West Africa’s second-largest port and an important player in the CFA franc zone. This economic isolation can cause severe issues for the Sahel Confederation in the long run.
On the other hand, military integration within the confederation can also serve as a challenge because, since September 2023, there have been no prospects for any joint military exercises between the three nations. Compared to NATO, this alliance does not have the resources necessary to carry out extensive and complex processes. This resource deficiency is also due to the jihadist insurgency within the region.
Furthermore, the confederation has taken a step towards calling out for support from the Russian private military company “Wagner Group”. Yet, the failed intervention of Wagner in Mozambique showcases its inadequacy to aid the confederation in gaining victory over atrocities within the Sahel region. Another loophole in the confederation is the potential staging of coups by the military in case the civilian government does not cooperate with the interests of the alliance. Given the current security and political dynamics, these issues serve as a major hindrance to the proposed activities of the confederation.
Conclusion
The Sahel Confederation does provide hope for the eradication of insurgency within West Africa; however, there is a broader regional concern that encompasses both military and economic aspects. There is a need for the confederation to come up with a meticulously devised plan of action that would help the nations seek alternative measures that can help in achieving and fulfilling the shared prospects of the Sahel Confederation.
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Minahil Khalid is a student of M.Phil International Relations at Kinnaird College for Women University, Lahore. Her research interests revolve around global political issues and security studies.