Pakistan's woes and the way forward

Pakistan faces a number of challenges besides security which arise primarily from its growing population and the shortages of food, water and electricity that inevitably accompany such a rise. This has been labelled a 'demographic time bomb' by Talbot because he estimates that with a couple of decades, the population of Pakistan might hover around 220 million. This would mean around 6 million citizens unemployed and over 30 million children out of school and water shortage of around two-thirds of the flow of the Indus. If fertility rates are not managed, Pakistan's population in 2050 may range from 335 to 460 million. Even currently with nearly half the population illiterate, 1 in 4 children malnourished and around 36 million people unemployed, Pakistan is in an extremely tough spot. There are lessons Pakistan could take from other countries like Bangladesh which introduced successful family planning campaigns that helped to curtail a previously unsustainable fertility rate. In Indonesia and Iran, fertility rates remain half of what they are in Pakistan.

Besides population and government mismanagement, climate change is also a driving force behind the water and energy crises in Pakistan. A shortfall of around 4-6 gigawatts in electricity and water levels declining from around 5000 cubic meters per capita to around 1500 which is predicted to go down even further to a disastrous 850 meters in 2020. Climate change adds to these problems because the government has to manage these resources and explore others as it strives to maintain a small environmental footprint. Talbot thinks water management is an area which provides an opportunity for countries in the region to cooperate because the alternative is war between and within countries. Water wastage can be reduced by over 30 percent simply from updating infrastructure  Better water-storing technology along with a shift towards less water-intensive crops might also reduce demand. With regards to electricity, Pakistan does posses the Thar field which stretches over 9000 square miles and has under it over 175 billion tons of coal. Pakistan also has hydroelectric potential and investment from China in coal, hydro and nuclear has certainly added to the country's energy generation capacity. These will however need to weighed against the environmental costs so that a sustainable approach can be taken.

A debate around the economic and social transformation of Pakistan is required so that a national consensus may emerge around a more equitable economic policy and larger security framework. This would mean an economic outlook that recognizes the failure and inadequacies of previous policies which have failed to transform Pakistan into a middle-income economy along with an objective assessment of security needs which accounts for water, food and energy needs. Only when such a national consensus emerges can any transformation be truly successful.

Along with the usual list of reforms like better delivery of services, effective taxation, institutional changes with regards to the police, military, bureaucracy, political and social system should be added openness with regards to economic matters, particularly as they pertain to the privatization of state enterprises which are bleeding money. This would empower citizens to participate more broadly and will provide for the availability of greater resources for human development. He thinks that a virtuous cycle needs to be established where one reform leads to another such as less interference by the military because of a reassessment of the security landscape and the place of the military in Pakistani society vis-a-vis a strong and united political class. Pakistan's problems are long-term as he sees them and only a positive feedback loop will help to solve them.