The World Meteorological Organization recently published that global warming breached the threshold limit of 1.3 °C. On the other hand, the United Nations Environment Program published its flagship “Emission Gap Report 2024,” in which it quoted that 57.1 GtCO2 was emitted in 2023 alone. COP-28 global stocktake (GST) was a stark reality check for the world. We only have a 400 GtCO2 carbon budget left for development, and Pakistan only contributed around 510 MtCO2 in 2023. If this continues the remaining carbon will be consumed within the next 6 years.
The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29)
The Republic of Azerbaijan is holding the presidency of the COP29 summit, which is taking place in its capital, Baku, from 11-22 November 2024. Heads of 197 states are expected to contribute to this year’s Conference of the Parties (COP). A call of truce was made by Yalchin Rafiyev, who is the deputy foreign minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the chief negotiator for COP 29.
This call for a truce not only promotes peace but also the reduction of the carbon emissions of war, which account for around 5-6% of the global carbon footprint. The cumulative effects of climate change can stress governance and institutions, a significant challenge to the overstretched government’s ability to respond in a timely and effective manner.
An Opportunity for Peace & Cooperation
Inspired by the “Olympic Truce” which signifies a tradition (originating from Ancient Greece dating back to 776 BC) of providing safety and a peaceful environment, the COP29 presidency presents the 2024 Conference of Parties as a “Truce COP.” The ambition is for there to be a one-month global ceasefire during the conference.
The suggested timeline of the ceasefire is during the COP, and a week before and afterwards. Azerbaijan is calling all parties to the Paris Accord that are engaged in conflict to put down arms. The COP29 presidency also added a special “Peace Day” on 15 November, and a COP29 peace and climate initiative, intended to help the most vulnerable countries around the world for a ceasefire.
The ongoing conflicts of Ukraine and Russia, and Israel and Gaza (both in regions neighboring Azerbaijan) cast a shadow over the conference. Forging a diplomatic agreement at the end of COP29 on climate is expected to be even more fragile because of geopolitical tensions that are running high.
COP29 presents a unique chance to bridge divides and find paths toward lasting peace because conflicts and wars not only increase human vulnerability but also cause large greenhouse gas emissions, which are unprecedentedly polluting the air, water, and lands. Only joint long-term solutions can solve the climate change puzzle because no country alone has enough resources or potential to tackle the climate challenge.
During COP28, last year in December, Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s campaign to hold this year’s COP. This was the first international gesture of support between the two longtime competitors. Pakistan and India should take inspiration from this example.
Since signing the Paris Agreement, numerous countries have initiated regional cooperative efforts on transboundary natural resources management via the integration of multiple bilateral or multilateral treaties. Despite COVID-19 leading multilateral efforts, the volatile nature of political turmoil in South Asia (Pakistan and India) remains, and treaties at the regional level of integration are understood little.
Siachen: Mountain of Peace in South Asia
In the nature-security nexus, every individual action matters, so additional efforts are necessary to bridge peace with regard to the environment in the region. The aftermath of wars/conflicts undermines nations’ efforts to safeguard the region. For example, in the climate crisis in South Asia’s highest battleground, Siachen, more soldiers die due to avalanches than direct combat. More than 20,000 soldiers are deployed from India and Pakistan at 6,700 meters above sea level. It is one of the world’s largest glaciers and highest battlegrounds, situated in Kashmir.
According to EM-DAT, in 2023 the world suffered 399 disasters, Asia suffered 167 natural disasters and Pakistan faced 13. We are not facing a single crisis now, but a trend of poly-crises. The cryosphere is heating up to four times faster compared to the world, and scarcity of natural resources like water for low-riparian countries is now unavoidable and irreversible, as in the Indus Basin.
Current glacial conditions in the Upper Indus Basin are unpredictable (as with the phenomenon of GLOFs) and represent a wake-up call for the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. As part of the Joint Solemn Appeal, I would like to make two suggestions from this platform:
- Designate the HKH region as a “Regional Biodiversity Common.”
- Demilitarize the glacier for climate peace, making Siachen a “Mountain of Climate Responsibility,” to highlight that the people of South Asia are serious about protecting future generations.
This is a crucial step in ensuring climate justice for the Global South that contributes less than it endures. Thus, a holistic approach that facilitates peace and stability is the need of the hour. This would not only ease the transition for Global South but would also de-risk the investment uncertainty for the stockholders.
Besides that, it is also important to implement measures to alleviate and temporarily halt war burdens among low- and middle-income nations. In such crucial times, when Pakistan grapples with an economic crisis, political instability, and climate emergencies, this call of truce was a pinnacle moment for Pakistani youth and scholars to interact with the president of COP29, present their case for peace and ceasefire turn their pledges into actions.
This era indeed presents an arc of vulnerability for countries like ours that struggle with such grave challenges, while lacking in scale, capacity, and capital.
The Last Hope for 1.5 °C
Thus, on one hand, the expectations from this year’s COP might have been elevated with the ambitious statements made by COP29 president, H.E Mukhtar Babayev, and the agreement on carbon markets. However, on the other hand, the distrust between the developed world remains, as the high emitters, the G7 and G20, fail to keep up with their pledges.
It is important to mention that we are currently at 1.3°C and the last 16 months were record breakers, more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial time, and mean temperatures over the last 12,000 years. Without a strong commitment to peace and stability, it is unbearable for vulnerable countries to protect their communities from the risk of far-off emissions.
Therefore, the ambitions this year must transform into actions and pledges shall become tangible commitments unless global leadership takes decisive steps toward emission reductions, this temperature will become the new normal, making livable conditions unlivable.
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Talha Tufail Bhatti is working as an assistant research officer at the climate change desk in the “Strengthening Regional Climate Resilience” program at the Institute of Regional Studies. He is an expert in climate governance and environmental policy. He can be reached at [email protected].