Background
The history of Pakistan-India relations can be seen as an era of lost opportunities because of deep mistrust, hostility, and conflict that has diminished efforts toward peace and stability. Pakistan and India have had several wars and conflicts resulting in border clashes and military stand-offs. India and Pakistan have fought two wars over Kashmir in 1948 and 1965, one over East Pakistan in 1971, and a low-intensity Kargil conflict in 1999. Throughout history, Kashmir has been a bone of contention between both countries. Both still have ongoing disagreements, persistent problems, and a history of unfulfilled promises. In the past seven decades, numerous attempts have been made by the two countries to address these disputes, but they were not successful due to domestic, regional, and global factors. In this article we discuss India-Pakistan relations under Modi in his third term and the obstacles standing in the way of successful bilateral ties.
The Kashmir Stalemate
Since 2018, tensions between both countries have been exacerbated, especially when India unilaterally decided to repeal Articles 370 and 35A which changed the autonomous status of Kashmir. Pakistan considered this as a violation of the Shimla Agreement and past UN resolutions. In 2019, India also conducted bombings through air strikes in the Pakistani territory of Balakot. Trade between both countries has been constrained; particularly so following the Pulwama attack and the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act of 2019 which led to punitive duties of 200 % on Pakistani imports. Consequent to that, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan suspended trade relations with India. Thus, dialogue between both countries has been halted for years, trade suspended, and diplomatic representation/exchanges reduced.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi reflects ultranationalist traits. He has an extremist, anti-Muslim mindset, and his election manifesto had a muscular anti-Pakistan narrative. During his term, the Indian Government has projected hawkish, biased, and aggressive policies toward Pakistan. In its 2019 manifesto, the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) emphasized taking a hard stance towards Pakistan to achieve its long-term goals by securing India against internal and external aggression. The manifesto highlighted a zero-tolerance approach towards terrorism. Additionally, the BJP in its manifesto defended the abrogation of Article 35(A) by considering it an obstacle to the development of Kashmir.
In 2021, the hope that back-channel communication would lead to any improvement turned into disappointment as no progress was made on any front. The only outcome was that both countries agreed to uphold a tenuous cease-fire on the Line of Control (LoC) in February 2021 which was an important development. The rivalry between India and Pakistan is a defining approach of the Indian polity. The enmity for Pakistan is a national cause in India.
Introduction
With the inauguration of new governments, the year 2024 started with hopes of normalizing relations between India and Pakistan. This optimism was based on the assumption that the elections might bring both countries to renew their bilateral ties. A new hope for diplomatic reproachment was prompted when Narendra Modi congratulated Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif who began his second term as Prime Minister on 3 March 2024. On the other side, Modi was sworn in for a third time on June 8, 2024, but with a sharply reduced mandate that forced him to depend on the coalition to stay in power. Under the Modi government, relations between India and Pakistan have remained sour and Kashmir has remained a central focus of Modi’s policy towards Pakistan.
India and Pakistan have strained ties, specifically due to India’s refusal to talk about Kashmir—after making unilateral changes in the region. However, the growing Indian economy has significantly influenced India’s relations with the global superpowers. Therefore, there is no pressure on the state from international communities to mend ties with Pakistan. During June 2024, India’s total exports were estimated at $65.47 billion registering a growth of 5.40 %, and total imports were estimated at $73.47 billion registering a growth of 6.29 %. India’s trade policies aim to create new market opportunities and bolster economic growth. Modi’s Government is likely to continue the same hardline posture towards Pakistan that it has adopted in the past five years.
The political leadership in Pakistan is now willing to take steps to renew bilateral relations. Many political and economic experts believe that Indian leaders will continue to pursue a tough posture toward Pakistan and are unlikely to change it in the future. This article aims to analyze the current state of affairs between India and Pakistan under the Modi regime.
Domestic and Regional Dynamics
India has long viewed Pakistan through the prism of security concerns. Narendra Modi’s policy towards Pakistan revolves around the issue of terrorism. On the day when Modi took the oath—a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims fell in a gorge in the Reasi district of Indian-Occupied Kashmir (IOJK)—India blamed Pakistan for the incident. India accuses Pakistan of inciting trouble in Indian-occupied Kashmir as well as orchestrating violent attacks on the Indian territory. Changes in nuclear warfare capabilities, profound mistrust, and repeated hostilities continue to hinder any efforts to normalize ties. India is also seeking to isolate Pakistan by providing heavy economic assistance to Afghanistan.
Modi’s Government is likely to continue a policy of indifference with Pakistan. However, it is doubtful that Modi will unilaterally initiate any re-engagement with Pakistan. Additionally, targeting Muslim minorities, bashing Pakistan, and using anti-Muslim rhetoric in his campaigns makes prospects of improvement between the two countries very slim. In Indian election campaigns, Pakistan remains a widely referred-to phenomenon where Muslim bashing and hate speeches remain a ubiquitous issue.
Hosting G20 Summits, joining multilateral forums such as the QUAD, and attending the G7 leadership meeting in Italy, India is becoming an increasingly assertive voice in the global arena. BJP’s relatively low performance in the 2024 elections might indicate that Modi’s immediate concern is more inward-looking as his government introspects on its losses and tries to prevent a recurrence. Modi aims to prioritize economic development, foreign investment, and infrastructural projects as domestic policy concerns. Meanwhile, Pakistan requested its 24th loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize its faltering economy amid a volatile political and security environment. However, neither country can take the initiative to improve bilateral relations, as both countries have set some pre-conditions for re-engagement.
India is concentrating on its steady march towards economic prowess, ring-fence security, and rising global influence. Pakistan is facing multifarious problems including a serious economic crisis. The government is trying to manage the economic problems as the GPD broadcasted a growth of 2.38% with inflation trending downward since the third quarter of FY2024.
Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia to re-kindle trade ties and IMF meetings have been ongoing. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia expressed their interest in enhancing trade with Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan is willing to improve its trade with India as well. One of the greatest security challenges Pakistan is facing arises from its neighbors including an unsettled situation with Afghanistan, strained relations with India over cross-border terrorism and Kashmir, and great power competition between India and China. These circumstances have complicated both Pakistan’s and India’s strategic approach as both countries are seeking to balance their relations with China and the United States.
India is persistently attempting to encircle Pakistan in the region. In its strongest display of displeasure, India decided to pull out of the SAARC Summit, which was to be held on November 2026, in Islamabad after the September 18 Uri attack in Kashmir. The Modi Government boycotted it by protesting against Pakistan’s failure to prevent cross-border terrorism and implied that Pakistan-sponsored terrorism is the biggest threat to regional cooperation.
It was a diplomatic move by India to encircle Pakistan by refusing to attend the eight-nation meeting in Islamabad which can be seen as India’s isolating policy towards Pakistan. Speaking at an event on July 26, 2024, Prime Minister Modi accused Pakistan of involvement in proxy war and terrorism. Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, dismissing Modi’s belligerent remarks, said that the Prime Minister of India can not divert the world’s attention from the harsh and violent actions that are being committed by the Indian forces in the Indian Illegal Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). She also warned India against any aggression saying that Pakistan remains steadfast in its intent to defend its sovereignty.
What is the Way Forward for Pakistan-India Relations?
Major powers want both countries to normalize their ties as their mutual relations are important for regional peace and stability. However, there are many obstacles to normalizing ties and they are not easy to overcome. Michael Kugelman believes that hopes for reconciliation should be tempered. Following its rough standpoint regarding Pakistan, the BJP’s tactics did not change in its recent elections either. The anti-Pakistan narrative, the policy of isolating Pakistan and constantly demonizing it, accusing it of state-sponsored terrorism, and refusing to talk about Kashmir are damaging the possibility of improving bilateral relations. India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar said that India’s foreign policy will focus on prioritizing the years-old cross-border terrorism allegedly emanating from Pakistan.
On both sides of the border, visionary leadership along with consistent dialogue can break the logjam and change the course of history. Therefore, it is imperative to adopt a problem-solving approach by rethinking policy formation. Building trust is very important and the only way is through engagement at all levels between leaders, government officials, businesses, media, and civil society. We can learn significant lessons from the effective and result-oriented peace talks and negotiations on both sides.
Climate Change
While posing a severe threat to both nations, climate change brings more new opportunities for dialogue and cooperation to reduce the tension between them. The two states can move beyond the traditional security threat by adopting collaborative projects like a joint management system of shared water resources, regional projects, and collaborative disaster response to make a climate-resilient future for the region.
Religious Tourism
Religious tourism is one of the most important and common aspects of bilateral ties that can build effective confidence between the two states. To promote peaceful engagement between the frictional neighbors, it is vital to focus on the shared religious heritage which will also promote people-to-people contact.
Improving Cross-Border Trade and Business
For Pakistan, trading with India could help stabilize its struggling economy. A deeper trade-relation with India could boost Pakistan’s private sector which is usually dominated by established local business leaders. Both countries could gain significant strategic benefits through mutual trade.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that the Pakistani business community is eager to resume trade with India which indicates a potential shift in the historic diplomatic stance. A restoration of trade ties could help to create conditions for more lasting peace by creating openings to discuss more contentious problems.
SCO Summit
Recently, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visited Pakistan for the SCO Summit. While keeping a restrained tone, Jaishankar emphasized regional cooperation and mutual friendship. Moreover, he avoided any bilateral talks with Pakistan and remained solely focused on multilateral concerns. On the basis of India’s cautious participation in the SCO, it is however expected that the dynamics between both countries will not change.
If we want the future to be better than the past, both sides should adhere to the above principles to build a peaceful and prosperous future. We need to pick up where we left off and work together for regional peace and security. Both countries should explore ways to advance cooperation on trade and economic problems. Only then can lasting peace become a feasible choice to the endless conflicts. Sustainable bilateral talks depend on the emergence of strong leadership in both countries that can shape foreign policy.
Conclusion
The above analysis of India-Pakistan relations indicates that dealing with challenging relations with India will continue to preoccupy Pakistan with little incentive to ease tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Two major issues have caused both countries to remain trapped in hostility, which are Kashmir and terrorism. However, with both countries having gone through elections in 2024, it was expected that they would consider normalizing their ties for the coming future.
In the light of current political environment, it seems difficult to engage in a result-oriented dialogue between two countries. Modi’s adamant approach towards Pakistan indicates that no significant improvement in bilateral relations is expected.
If you want to submit your articles and/or research papers, please check the Submissions page.
The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Nimra Hasnat has recently completed her MPhil from Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad. Her research interests include domestic and regional political dynamics, the interplay between military and civil institutions, and the implications of political development on International relations.