Assessing the Impact of Rising Sea Levels on the Coastal Community of Manora Island, Pakistan

Abstract

Coastal areas are the zones of economic significance where economic activities are highly concentrated. Sea level rise refers to the global increase in sea level as a result of climate change. This research paper examines the economic vulnerabilities of the Manora coastal community in response to the rising sea levels. Manora Island is a short peninsula that acts as a protective barrier between Karachi Harbor and the Arabian Sea of Pakistan, and due to global sea level rise, it is at risk of economic vulnerability.

The paper aims to identify the causes of the sea level rise and its impact on economic vulnerability. Economic indicators such as a decline in tourism, sea transport, and mangrove population contribute to this vulnerability. The increase in sea level also affects fisheries, which is a primary source of income for many coastal communities, leading to poverty and the search for alternative employment. The research adopts a mixed-method approach using both qualitative and quantitative data. Finally, the research paper suggests a few recommendations to reduce vulnerabilities.

Keywords: Economic vulnerability, Coastal Communities, Sea Level Rise, Climate Change, Mitigation Options

Background

The twenty-first century has witnessed major challenges due to climate change. The process of climate change is neither an overnight phenomenon nor a days and months span; it is a gradual process that slowly makes the communities vulnerable. Climate change and its impacts originate all over the world and have adverse effects on developing countries, making it formally recognized by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Alamgir, A., et al., 2015). 

The rising level of CO₂ has resulted in retaining heat in the earth’s atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial systems, causing an increase in global warming. As a result of this, the sea levels rise as the ocean water expands and the glaciers retreat at a faster rate, adding to the sea level rise. The rise in sea levels is a threat to both the environment and the economy. The rise in sea levels has many physical impacts, like coastal erosion, inundation, salinization of soil, and increased coastal hazards. Thus, this paper aims to find out the causes that result in a rise in sea level. 

Pakistan is geographically located in a region that has a warm climate and lands that are arid and semi-arid. Pakistan’s coastal line area is spread over 1,050 km and is further divided between Sindh and Balochistan (Jagirani, S., et al., 2021). The Sindh coast is a passive margin and is around 25% of the total coastline, receiving tail-end southwest monsoon and a combination of sandy beaches, mangrove forests, rocky cliffs, and mud. (Memon, F.S., 2016). 

According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Pakistan is included in the list of top twelve countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change. The rural populations’ livelihood and survival are directly related to the coasts, as around 2 million people live in rural coastal areas. Coastal zones are of economic importance, as many of the economic activities are concentrated there. Manora Island is a coastal area located in Karachi, Pakistan. It is connected to Karachi by a 12-kilometer strip called the Sandspit Highway. Manora is a short peninsula that acts as a protective barrier between Karachi Harbor and the Arabian Sea. As the sea levels rise, the economic activities in these areas are affected, resulting in a decrease in economic output.

The Sindh coastline is of high economic importance, as Karachi is the industrial hub of Pakistan and about 70% of industries are in Karachi. So due to the rise in sea level, these industries become non-functional, leading to a decrease in contribution to GDP. The rise in sea levels results in economic vulnerabilities of the coastal communities that are highly dependent upon fisheries and also contribute to 0.8% of the GDP. Decreases in tourism and mangrove trees also contribute to economic vulnerability.

 

Karachi is home to two grand ports: Karachi Port Trust (KPT) and Port Muhammad bin Qasim. These two ports are major channels for imports and exports of the country, as 95% of international trade is handled through these two ports (Memon, F.S., 2016). As sea levels rise, these two become nonfunctional, resulting in increasing the unemployment rate and making the coastal communities further economically vulnerable. Thus, this paper tends to find economic indicators that can be used to assess the vulnerabilities of coastal communities due to the rise in sea level.

The rise in sea levels not only causes economic vulnerabilities among the coastal communities but also tends to be a hindrance to Pakistan in achieving the 2030 Agenda, as it affects the achievement of three sustainable development goals, i.e., SDG 11, SDG 13, and SDG 15. These SDGs are sustainable cities and communities, climate action, and life on land, respectively. The achievement of these SDGs is very important to ensure the development of the country.

Many government policies have been formulated to reduce the economic vulnerabilities caused by the rise in sea levels. The two major policies that discuss this issue are the Pakistan Climate Change Policy and the Sindh Climate Change Policy. These two policies give several measures that can be taken to protect coastal communities from economic vulnerabilities. Thus, this research paper will also give a few recommendations on how to reduce such economic vulnerabilities in coastal communities. 

Significance of Study

The research paper contributes to raising awareness among individuals regarding the threats caused by rising sea levels. This research paper also adds to the knowledge of an individual about how the sea levels rise and which human activities contribute to it. The research paper sheds light on the economic vulnerabilities faced by this coastal community, helping the individual understand the economic significance of coastal areas.

The findings of the study will help policymakers develop a policy for the reduction of economic vulnerabilities faced by coastal communities. The research paper’s significance, in short, lies in providing an understanding of economic vulnerabilities that are faced by the Manora coastal community as the sea levels rise. It facilitates informed decision-making, fosters resilience-building measures, and contributes to a more sustainable and climate-resilient future for coastal urban centers worldwide.

Research Objectives

1. To find out the causes behind the changes in sea levels in Manora Island, Pakistan.
2. To figure out the economic indicators that can be used to assess the vulnerability of the Manora coastal community.

Research Questions

1. How have sea levels in Karachi changed, and what are the causes behind them?
2. What are the key economic indicators that can be used to assess the vulnerability of the Manora Island coastal community in Pakistan?

Research Hypothesis

Conceptual Framework

Literature Review

World War II resulted in good recognition of the significance of climatology and from there on, it has been well-documented in various fields. It is documented in economics, social planning, water management, and agriculture management. Climatology refers to the study of different elements of climate like temperature, rainfall, pressure, winds, humidity, evaporation, and their relationship with human activities. Climate change has been discussed as an agenda item in the 20th UN Security Council on 20^th July 2011 (Bukhari & Sayal, 2011).

The twenty-first century has witnessed climate change as a major challenge as it impacts all sectors, including water, agriculture, energy, health, and trade. The overall climate of the world has changed over time, with a rise of 0.6 ± 0.2°C since 1900 (Qureshi & Ali, 2011). This increase in temperature is followed by sea ice and glaciers melting along with an increasing number of heat waves, ocean warming, sea-level rise, and change in precipitation accompanied by heavy rainfall and droughts in many regions. 

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to global warming because Pakistan geographically lies in an area where the increase in temperature is expected to be higher than the temperatures of other countries. The Hindukush and the Himalayan glaciers are reported to be receding rapidly because of climate change and global warming. Pakistan is an agrarian country and climate change can pose a threat to the country’s economy, making it climate-sensitive.

Moreover, due to monsoon rain, water security variability, flood security, and energy security are under great threat. Coastal zones are considered permanent features, which are the most stable. However, the reality is the other way around, as shorelines are very dynamic. Global climate changes, such as rising sea levels, are the driving force behind inducing the mid-and long-term changes in coastal areas. The coastal resources are directly impacted by the morphological changes as the coastal environment has high commercial, recreational, and economic values.

Pakistan’s coastal line area is spread over 1,050 km and is further divided between Sindh and Balochistan (Jagirani, S., et al., 2021). The Sindh coast is a passive margin, comprising around 25% of the total coastline, receiving tail-end southwest monsoon and featuring a combination of sandy beaches, mangrove forests, rocky cliffs, and mud (Memon, F.S., 2016).

The Pakistan coastline is highly productive from economic, biological, and social standpoints and has significant importance both in terms of biodiversity and economic development. Karachi is one of the largest coastal cities in Asia and with a population of 14.91 million, it is one of the largest metropolitan cities in Pakistan. The Karachi coastline experiences heavy rainfall of high intensity varying from 125 to 250 mm. Karachi shows a regular increase in temperature, rising by 0.37% per decade.

Coastal communities are susceptible to climate change as the rise in sea levels poses a constant threat to the communities. There are several causes for the increase in sea levels. The rise in sea levels due to high and low tides has many adverse impacts on the coastal communities and environment as it causes saline water intrusion, erosion of shorelines, and amplified intensity and frequency of coastal flood inundation (Bakhsht, H.A., et al., 2011).

The main causes behind rising sea levels are thermal expansion, freshwater inputs, physical forces, and ocean current variation. Thermal expansion refers to the warming of seawater. The upper layer of the ocean, which is in contact with the atmosphere, releases some of the heat to the atmosphere, whereas the lower layer retains this heat for a longer time and quantity, leading to the temperature rising in the sea in the long run (Memon, 2016). In 2021, the global sea level set a new record high, 97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels. 

Freshwater inputs prove to be another cause behind the rise in sea levels, as the increase in global warming causes the melting of glaciers, sea ice, and ice sheets. This increases the freshwater input in the sea. It has been found that due to changes in temperature and increased global warming, Antarctica is losing the ice mass at an average rate of 150 billion tons per year and Greenland is losing about 270 billion tons per year adding to the sea level rise.

According to the IPCC, if this rate continues, by 2035 all glaciers will disappear (Memon, F.S., 2016). In Pakistan, the Himalayas, Karakoram, and the Hindu Kush are the third largest ice reserves after the polar region, and they also make the largest chain of mountains in the world. Since the temperatures are increasing at an alarming rate, the thinning of ice and retreat of the glaciers present are increasing, adding to the sea levels.

The sea levels are also affected by tectonic activities like the extraction of oil, gas, and water that result in creating scenarios for subsidence and lifting. Regional ocean currents move a large amount of water from one place to another location and affect the sea level. Thus, this research paper aims to find out the causes behind the increase in sea levels in Karachi. 

The rise in sea level not only has physical impacts but also results in making the coastal communities socially and economically vulnerable. Karachi is known as one of the budgetary capitals of Pakistan, as it represents one of the greatest income eras (Memon, F.S., 2016). Karachi generates a total of 65% of national tax revenue and contributes 25% to the country’s total GDP.

As a result of the rising sea levels, coastal areas are affected, which leads to economic vulnerability. Karachi, being the industrial hub of Pakistan with about 70% of industries located there, is particularly vulnerable. The rise in sea levels renders these industries non-functional, leading to a decrease in GDP. Karachi is the home to two grand seaports, Karachi Port Trust (KPT) and Port Muhammad bin Qasim. These two ports are major channels for imports and exports of the country, as 95% of international trade is handled through these two ports (Memon, F.S., 2016).

As the sea levels rise, these two ports become nonfunctional, resulting in a loss of income for the labor force employed there, making them economically vulnerable and decreasing GDP. Pakistan coastal communities contribute a total of 0.8% of the GDP through fisheries. The households dependent upon the income generated through fisheries are subjected to poverty as the sea levels rise and they must find other employment opportunities for themselves.

Decreases in tourism and mangrove trees also contribute to economic vulnerability. Thus, this research paper aims to identify the economic indicators leading to the vulnerability of the Manora Island community due to rising sea levels in Pakistan. Furthermore, this research paper will give recommendations to decrease the vulnerabilities caused by the increase in sea levels. 

Research Approach

The research will use a mixed-method approach where qualitative and quantitative data are collected and analysis is done at the same time, presenting a broader overview of the phenomenon.

Data Collection Method

Secondary data will be collected from various sources, academic papers published on the same topic, and reports on coastal vulnerability from relevant government agencies.

Data Analysis Method

Thematic analysis will be employed to analyze data collected through qualitative methods and statistical analysis will be done for quantitative data. Correlations between sea level rise and the economic impact on coastal communities of Karachi will also be explored.

Ethical Consideration

In the conduct of this research, ethical considerations were maintained by acknowledging and correctly citing all sources used. The ethical framework of this research was governed by the values of transparency, prohibition of plagiarism, and acknowledgment of limits that resulted in responsible and credible research outputs.

Causes of Sea Level Rise

Thermal Expansion

Sea level rise is primarily caused by the thermal expansion of seawater due to rising temperatures. Thermal expansion occurs when water absorbs heat and its molecules become energized, leading them to move apart and increase in volume. This phenomenon is particularly significant in the context of global warming and climate change, as the Earth’s average temperature has been rising and as the oceans absorb heat from the atmosphere, the water molecules gain energy and expand.

This expansion leads to an increase in the overall volume of the oceans, causing sea levels to rise. According to the laws of physics, as the temperature of a substance increases, its volume also increases, and this principle applies to seawater as well. Rising ocean heat content (and hence ocean thermal expansion) is an important element of climate change and sea-level rise (Church & White, 2011).

In coastal regions such as Karachi, sea level rise due to thermal expansion occurs because of the same global processes that affect the world’s oceans. Rising global temperatures lead to the heating of the oceans, causing the seawater to expand and contribute to an increase in sea levels over time. This phenomenon is a part of the broader issue of global sea level rise driven by climate change (Memon, 2016).

In Pakistan, Karachi serves as a significant economic hub and is the focal point of numerous businesses in the shipping, manufacturing, and financial sectors. In recent years, Karachi’s sea level has been rising alarmingly. The ideal sea temperature is between 18°C and 26°C. However, in Pakistan, the sea temperature is increasing rapidly due to thermal expansion, which leads to an absurd rise in sea levels. In Karachi, sea levels increased by around 0.002 mm/year from 1916 to 2016 and by 0.0032 mm/year from 1916 to 2020, according to a study by the Pakistan Academy of Sciences. This is faster than the 0.013 mm/year average worldwide sea level rise.

Thermal expansion is the primary factor contributing to the rising sea levels in Karachi (Arif Hasan, 2023). Sea levels increase as the sea expands, caused by global
warming. Climate change is making the oceans warm quickly, making this problem worse. Numerous adverse impacts of Karachi’s rising sea levels can be seen by the citizens. People are being evicted from their houses as flooding is happening more frequently and with more severity.

According to the study, thermal expansion accounts for around 57% of the rise in sea levels in Karachi. The other two significant causes, which together account for 26% and 17% of the rise, are glacier melt and land subsidence. This study also discovered that by 2050 Karachi’s sea level is expected to rise by 0.2 meters and by 2,100 it is expected to rise by 0.8 meters. The city will be negatively impacted by this sea level rise in several ways, including flooding, eroding land, and saltwater intrusion (F. A. Khan et al., 2020).

Studies have predicted that if the condition remains the same and the temperature keeps on increasing at this same rate, then by 2044 the sea temperature rise would increase to such an extent that it would become nearly impossible to reduce its consequences.

Freshwater Inputs

Climate change has resulted in some serious increases in the temperature, which is leading to the rapidly retreating of glaciers. According to studies, Antarctica is losing 150 million tons of ice every year and it is believed that if the situation continues, then by 2035 all glaciers will melt down. This melting of glaciers and ice sheets adds to the rise in sea levels globally.

Freshwater inputs can nonetheless contribute to the rise in sea level, although they have a lower impact than other causes. The addition of fresh water to oceans is known as freshwater input. This can originate from several places, such as groundwater discharge, river runoff, and melting glaciers and ice sheets. Seawater is replaced by fresh water when it is added to the oceans. The result is a rise in sea levels.

When compared to the sea level rise brought on by glaciers and ice sheets melting, the amount of sea level rise brought on by freshwater inputs is very minor. It nevertheless makes a considerable contribution (Frederikse et al., 2020). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), freshwater inflows cause sea levels to rise by between 0.1 and 0.2 millimeters annually. In comparison to the reported sea level rise of 3.2 millimeters per year, this is a small quantity. It is crucial to remember that as the Earth’s climate continues to warm, the contribution of freshwater inputs to sea level rise is anticipated to grow.

The figure clearly shows that Pakistan has a huge percentage of glaciers present, so as the temperature rises, these glaciers will retreat and will significantly contribute towards the sea level rise. Freshwater inputs also play a role in Karachi’s sea level rise as it accounts for a 26% rise. The city is situated on the Indus River Delta, a significant freshwater supply. The Arabian Sea receives a substantial freshwater discharge from the Indus River during times of flooding. This freshwater can displace seawater, raising the sea level. The rise of sea levels in Karachi is accelerating due to thermal expansion and the inclusion of fresh water. Saltwater intrusion takes place when freshwater inputs happen because of sea level rise. Saltwater intrusion pollutes freshwater supplies (F. A. Khan et al., 2020).

Economic Vulnerabilities

Decrease in Shipping and Trading

Seaports are considered to be the backbone of international trade and are important for the effective management of any supply chain network, as 90% of trade is done by sea (Liaqait et al., 2020). In Pakistan, approximately 95% of the international trade is handled by the sea via Karachi Port, which is the biggest port, whereas the Muhammad bin Qasim Port handles 20% of the cargo traffic. According to the Ministry of Port and Shipping, from the year 2017-2018, Karachi Port handled 52.49 million tons of the country’s traffic cargo which makes up almost 70% of the whole country. Karachi Port is ranked 83^rd among the world’s top 100 ports.

Due to the high functionality of these ports, many employment opportunities are created for the people living nearby, which results in an improvement in the economic situation. However, as the sea levels rise, the increased coastal flooding and coastal erosion result in damaging the infrastructure of the ports leading to their closure. This closure results in job losses for the coastal communities, as they are engaged in various sectors related to port operations, such as dockworkers, stevedores, cargo handlers, ship crew members, customs officials, and administrative staff.

Moreover, a decrease in shipping and trading causes a reduction in the daily wages of the workers, making them economically vulnerable. The decrease in shipping and trading activities may also force the workers to migrate to other places in search of employment. This migration is costly and makes the economic situation of already struggling families worse. Thus, a decrease in shipping and trading activities makes the coastal communities economically vulnerable due to the decrease in employment opportunities and incomes.

Decrease in Income Through Fisheries

The decrease in Indus Water into the delta and the rising sea levels have resulted in seawater intrusion in the coastal shores of Sindh and have affected the livelihood sources of the locals. This intrusion of seawater possesses the ability to degrade natural resources. The fisheries sector plays a very important role in the economic development of the country, as it is one of the most powerful income and employment generators for the locals.

Pakistan’s economy is also dependent upon the fisheries sector, as it contributes significantly to the economy and is also considered a source of food and livelihood for the coastal communities. According to a study, around 0.4 million people are directly attached to the fisheries and almost 0.6 million people down the line, making it 1% of the labor force (“Economic Analysis of Fisheries Sector of Sindh, Pakistan,” 2017).

In Pakistan, the main hub for fishing activities is the Karachi Fish Harbor, which constitutes about 60% of the fishing fleet. The fishing fleet in Ibrahim Hydari and adjacent areas constitute about 20% of the fishing fleet, for a total of 80% fishing of the fleet existing in Karachi. Thus, the Sindh fisheries sector plays a very important role in the economic well-being of coastal communities by providing them with a livelihood.

Thus, when the sea levels rise, it affects the local communities as the income generated through fisheries decreases and they become economically vulnerable. The rise in sea levels causes coastal erosion and forces the fisherman communities to migrate to other locations, affecting their livelihoods. Since the livelihoods of the coastal communities are highly dependent upon fisheries, reallocating these communities can disrupt fishing practices and make it difficult for them to reestablish their livelihoods in new locations. This can negatively affect their income from fishing, making them economically vulnerable. According to a study conducted in one of the coastal areas of Karachi, a fisherman quotes:

“Gradually, due to sea intrusion and sea erosion, now those creeks have become part of the sea, and new creeks have developed in the coastal region, and new islands have been developed. The fisher community is of the view that land has gradually become barren and it makes it difficult for them to continue living there; hence they have to migrate (Iqbal & Abro, 2021).”

As a result of sea level rise, the temperatures increase, and there are changes in oceanic currents, affecting fishing productivity. The reduced fishing productivity contributes to lower catch sizes and subsequently a decrease in income generated by fisheries. According to a survey conducted in the coastal areas of Karachi, it was shown that around 67.5% of people strongly agreed to the fact that seawater intrusion due to the rise in sea levels has caused a decrease in fishing quantity, and a total of 15% agreed to this statement.

A decrease in fishing productivity causes a decrease in the income of the fishermen,
resulting in the relocation of fishing communities. This not only creates economic vulnerability but is also expensive. Moreover, the rise in sea levels causes an increase in high tides, which can damage the boats of fishermen and hinder their ability to
catch fish. 

Decrease in Tourism

Globally, tourism is a socially and economically significant phenomenon and both the government and private organizations foster and profit from it. On a local level, tourism plays a very important part in providing a livelihood for the people. Tourism has obvious positive consequences, and it has the potential to be used as a vehicle for economic growth.

According to a 2020 report by the WTO, tourism has proved to be a significant contributor to the world’s economy, and a total of 1 in 11 employment opportunities are created by it (S. A. Khan, 2022). Tourism helps to reduce poverty as it results in increased employment opportunities and an increase in income generation through local products and cuisines. Coastal areas have a high rate of tourism, accounting for a total of 10.4% of the global GDP which is equivalent to surpassing $8.8 billion.

Karachi is home to several coastal areas, which makes it a preferable tourist destination. Coastal tourism in Karachi derives from the need for accommodation services such as hotels, resorts, guesthouses, and vocational rentals. These establishments provide lodging options for tourists, resulting in the generation of income for local businesses and employment opportunities. In Sindh, employment in restaurants and hotels has increased from 37.7% in 2014-2015 to 40.9% in 2017-2018, which indicates an increase in the employment rate. Manora Island, a coastal area of Pakistan, alone has 10 restaurants that employ members of the local community.      

Over time, climate change has been responsible for inducing an increase in sea levels. This increase in sea level is a threat to the tourist sites as the sea level rises and frequent coastal flooding takes place, resulting in the destruction of infrastructure and the closure of the tourist sites. This closure affects the coastal communities economically as their source of income and employment opportunities are dependent upon tourism. According to a survey conducted, 70% of the people who are interested in visiting the coastal areas of Karachi will only do so if proper steps are taken to ensure the protection of tourist sites.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the research conducted on assessing the economic vulnerabilities of the coastal community of Manora Island in Pakistan, due to sea level rise underscores the critical importance of understanding and addressing the multifaceted challenges that these communities face. The findings of this study illuminate the intricate interplay between environmental changes and economic dynamics in the context of rising sea levels.

The research has revealed that coastal communities in Karachi are not only on the frontlines of the impacts of sea level rise but are also intricately linked to the broader urban and economic landscape. The vulnerabilities identified include a decrease in income and employment opportunities due to a decrease in shipping and trading, fisheries, and tourism. It highlights the urgent need for comprehensive strategies that integrate environmental sustainability, community engagement, and economic development.

While the challenges are substantial, the research also reveals potential avenues for enhancing the resilience of coastal communities. Empowering local businesses, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, promoting sustainable livelihood diversification, and integrating traditional knowledge with innovative solutions are all strategies that can bolster the adaptive capacity of the Manora coastal community.

In a broader context, the research contributes to the achievement of global sustainability goals, particularly Sustainable Development Goal 11 (sustainable cities and communities) and Sustainable Development Goal 13 (climate action). By acknowledging the economic vulnerabilities of the coastal community of Manora Island and advocating for informed policy decisions, this research serves as a call to action for creating a more resilient and equitable future of Pakistan.

In the face of sea level rise and the associated challenges, this research stands as a testament to the resilience and determination of coastal communities in Karachi. By heeding the insights gained from this study, policymakers, researchers, and communities alike can work together to build a more secure, sustainable, and prosperous future for all.

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