Ever since the inception of strategic competition in South Asia, the two rival nations, Pakistan and India, have been in a never-ending arms race. In a game of power, one is never sure what the other would do, especially when both have everything to fight for. As India recently got its second nuclear-powered submarine (SSBN), the INS Arighaat, a new wave of tension started in the underwaters of the Indian Ocean. Now, the big question is, with its neighboring country becoming more and more powerful, can Pakistan afford to be left behind? Is a nuclear submarine a vital strategic weapon that Pakistan needs to address the threats originating from several nuclear weapon states in the region or is it a luxury that Pakistan can live without?
This article analyzes the modern arms race between two nuclear neighbors while trying to understand why Pakistan may have no other option than to build its nuclear-powered submarine given the increasing threats in the region.
Historical Context
The confrontation between India and Pakistan has been predominantly manifested in military clashes, including the initial wars of 1947, 1965, and 1971, as well as the Kargil conflict in 1999. The nuclearization of both countries in the late 1990s changed the dynamics and the approaches of these two countries towards each other in some ways. The Indians first tested nuclear weapons in 1998 and soon after that, Pakistan also tested them, therefore reaching a balance of power between the two main nuclear rivals of South Asia. However, this balance is still delicate, if not volatile, given the fact that both nations are continually modernizing and increasing their stockpile.
India has always had a larger defense budget than Pakistan, which has enabled it to spend a lot on the development of the most advanced technologies in the field of defense. In recent years, India has deliberately embarked on the successful development of third-generation missile systems, air defense systems, and naval expansion.
With a comparatively lower budget for defense, Pakistan has concentrated on the production of tactical nuclear weapons and reliable missile arsenals. Thus, the Indian expansion of underwater capabilities is a strategic shift in regional security. India’s atomic submarine, INS Arihant was successfully tested and commissioned in 2016 as a start of the SSBN program.
The INS Arihant is a nuclear-powered submarine built with the capability to launch nuclear missiles from a submerged position, thus strengthening the Indian second-strike capability. After this, India commissioned the second SSBN, INS Arighaat, which should enhance its nuclear capability even more. India also envisages acquiring a new generation of submarines, such as the S5-class SSBN, to further enhance its underwater nuclear deterrent capability. This growing underwater nuclear fleet unbalances strategy in South Asia and brings questions about Pakistan’s response.
Why Nuclear-powered Submarines are Better
SSKs are conventional diesel-electric submarines, while nuclear reactors power SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines). There are fundamental differences in the characteristics of the two regarding operations and capabilities. The main strength of SSNs is the fact that, unlike conventional submarines, they are immovable. They are not dependent on air, which means they can sail for months without surfacing. Conventional submarines, however, need surfacing to recharge batteries, making them more vulnerable to detection.
Nuclear-powered submarines are faster and have greater operational range and endurance. They are useful for distant patrols and reconnaissance in unfriendly territories. They can also transport larger payloads, such as ballistic or cruise missiles, increasing their strike power. Due to such benefits, SSNs are an important force multiplier in contemporary naval combat, especially for those countries wishing to go beyond their coastal marine jurisdiction.
Role of Submarine in Second Strike Capability
The concept of second strike capability is one of the most important elements of current theories in the sphere of deterrence. A country can retaliate with nuclear weapons after a nuclear strike on it. Second strike capability is important for resentment as it makes it impossible for a country to be defeated by a preemptive strike. This strategy involves the use of submarines, especially the SSNs and SSBNs because these are the most invisible and continue to survive most attacks. A ballistic missile submarine with nuclear propulsion is an ideal second strike weapon system because even in the event of a first strike; a country will have some form of retaliation weapons.
Need for Nuclear Submarines
There are several reasons why Pakistan should consider acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine, based on the current security situation in South Asia. First and foremost, the growing presence and modernization of Indian submarines, particularly nuclear-powered and ballistic missile-carrying submarines, have disturbed the strategic equation. In the absence of that capability, Pakistan’s naval forces are likely to be at a disadvantage. This is especially so because India is increasing its focus on the Indian Ocean region.
A nuclear-powered submarine would give capabilities to Pakistan, which may be considered vital to maintaining a second strike capability. In this regard, it is important because Pakistan’s current nuclear deterrence capability is based upon ground-launched missiles which are far less survivable than sea-launched ones and are easily detectable for a preemptive strike. Growing a nuclear force with an addition of sub-sea capability will provide the required edge and Pakistan should ensure that it can retaliate at least.
Furthermore, having a license to acquire a nuclear-powered submarine will further complement the conventional force of the naval forces in Pakistan. A nuclear-powered vessel would enable Pakistan to carry out sustained surveillance, and espionage, and counteract Indian navy operations in sensitive zones such as the Arabian Sea and other regions. It would also improve the Pakistani force’s operational maneuverability and power projection capabilities in the region.
Hence for Pakistan, acquiring nuclear-powered vessels is a tactical leap forward considering its implications, concerning its endurance, survivability, and, indeed, lethality. It would provide Pakistan with the much-needed capability that would ensure that the Indian navy remains controlled within the Indian Ocean region.
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Hiba Amjad is a committed and driven student currently pursuing her bachelor's in strategic studies from the National Defence University, Islamabad. My areas of interest include human security, Middle Eastern security issues, arms control and disarmament, climate change, information, cyber warfare, the rise of terrorism in Pakistan, and different traditional and nontraditional security issues.