Elections in the United States have always been regarded as a game changer in global politics. They have the attention of the international media, given that this sole decision can change the trajectory of the world. Similarly, this year’s November 2024 elections had the same impact and garnered great attention from the global media. After numerous anticipations about who would win and who would lose, the result eventually came on 5th November, when Donald Trump was officially declared the second-term President of the United States. This time, Trump has entered the White House with more resilience and new ideas. His election victory is seen to have opposing views by international politics, especially concerning the ongoing conflicts, e.g. Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine conflict. Analyzing the stance of Trump on Ukraine and Palestine is crucial.
Trump on Palestine
President Donald Trump has been aiming to end the Israel-Palestine conflict. With Trump’s appointment as the President of the US, Benjamin Netanyahu has said to be the first one to call and congratulate him. They have also been said to talk about the dynamics of the conflict and the growing threat to Israel by Iran. During the call, both states have vowed to work together to protect Israel’s sovereignty. According to a TV Channel survey, 67% of Israelis are happy with Trump’s comeback as president. His victory was also seen on the streets as many Israelis celebrated Trump after the declaration of election results.
If we look at Trump’s policy towards Israel during his first term, we can see how favorable and pleasant he was. He was the first president to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. He was also the first to transfer the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In 1967, Israel seized Golan Heights from Syria and officially (illegally) annexed it in 1981. It wasn’t recognized until Trump’s presidency and his favorable policies toward Israel rolled around.
He is also regarded as the pioneer of the Abraham Accords where he completely neglected the role of Palestine and gave attention to other Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, etc. for the normalization process. He also did not pay much attention to the Israel-Palestine conflict back then. According to some scholars, Trump will push Saudi Arabia for normalization yet again.
Although Trump has not presented the world with his detailed plans to end wars in the Middle East during his presidential debate, he sure has vouched to “end them all,” which shows that this issue is on his agenda.
Trump has given Netanyahu the deadline to end this war by January 20th, 2025, the day of his presidential inauguration. As happy as the Israeli settlers are about Trump’s comeback, his second presidency seems quite unpredictable for the ongoing warfare in the Middle East. This time, the resentment and voices against Israel are intense, which is making the issue hard for Trump to ignore. Nevertheless, the world will learn about his approach in the coming days.
Trump on Ukraine
Trump’s comeback has raised European concerns over his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is fretful about whether President-elect Trump will support them as Joe Biden did.
Ironically, Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin over his decisive role in the conflict and deemed Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as the one who instigated the war. Trump vowed to end the war before joining office. His friendly approach towards Russia is alarming the Ukrainian authorities. Any shift of relations by the US in the conflict can cause a massive hit to Ukraine’s ability to retaliate against Russia.
Rumors hold that Trump’s reelection will not have a solid impact on Ukraine’s relationship with the US. Throughout his campaigns, Donald Trump has shown doubts and concerns over elongating the conflict for three years. He proclaimed that the war would not have begun in the first place if he were the president. Several times, Trump has given the impression that the new administration will pressure Ukraine for a peace deal or a truce while ceding some of the Ukrainian territory to Russia.
After Trump’s win, the Foreign Policy Chief of the European Union, Josep Borrell, expressed his full support for Ukraine. He visited Kyiv and assured them that the EU would aid them in every possible way, no matter if the US decreased its support for the war in Ukraine. European allies have spent $125 million in light of military support, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction package to Ukraine so far. These statistics show that the EU can provide support to Ukraine in case of US support withdrawal.
Although during his first term, Trump claimed that he emboldened Ukraine with military support, he has also made statements on several occasions that show his distaste towards the state. Despite all these instances, Ukraine’s President, Zelensky, congratulated Trump on his victory. His call to President Trump shows his willingness to work together despite all conflicts of interest.
The significant fallout in the Russia-Ukraine conflict during Biden’s administration is the vacuum in a solid plan to end the conflict. Instead, the world witnessed a considerable amount of military aid being given to Ukraine, so the fight keeps going on. The same situation goes with the Israel-Palestine issue, where the US has provided Israel with unwavering support in military aid. Instead of working towards a peace deal, the Biden administration worked as fuel on fire. Trump is determined to fill this vacuum by actively working to end the conflict. Although he has not presented any concrete plan, he has discussed the ongoing disputes multiple times in his presidential debates, showing his willingness to work towards a peaceful world.
The dynamics of the conflicts between Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine are changing because of the mere elections of the United States. This shows what US elections are capable of and how much an elected president has the power to alter the course of any conflict. The lack of a plan for peace deals raises questions about Trump’s inclination towards a peaceful world, yet it is too soon to conclude anything. The world might witness a change in the ongoing conflicts after the presidential inauguration on January 20th.
If you want to submit your articles and/or research papers, please check the Submissions page.
The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Minahil Baig is currently pursuing her master's degree in Peace and Conflict Studies from NUST. Her areas of interest include conflict management, defence studies, artificial intelligence, and modern warfare.