As the summer crop neared its harvest season this year in Pakistan, farmers in Punjab, who were expecting a bumper rice crop, were met with a catastrophe they weren’t prepared for: the worst flooding in over three decades. As the world braces for the catastrophic changes brought about by climate change, countries like Pakistan, facing disproportionate levels of extreme climate events, are at the forefront of this shift. Extreme climate events are no longer once-in-a-decade occurrences; their frequency and magnitude are intensifying rapidly and are expected to continue increasing in the future. Grappling with disastrous floods for the second time in this decade, Pakistan finds itself in the middle of this crisis.
According to UNOSAT’s latest satellite analysis, as of early September 2025, approximately 3,660 km² of land in Pakistan’s Punjab province was affected by floodwaters, while in the Indian Punjab, around 1,480 km² of agricultural land was submerged under water. With thousands of acres of agricultural land submerged, a chain of socio-economic challenges has opened up for both countries, with people on both sides heavily relying on agriculture as their means of living.
The similar flooding situation has, however, opened the doors to a critical question: Why has Pakistan faced a disproportionate level of destruction compared to India when facing a similar climatic event?
2025 Floods: The Cause and the Aftermath
The Indus plain is no stranger to flooding since it is home to one of the largest river systems in the world, fed by the glaciers in the Karakoram and the Himalayas, but what brings concern is the escalating intensity of this flooding. A study on glacial melting in Pakistan has signalled a 30% increase in glacial melting over the last 50 years and has warned about an impending threat to human and material loss. This upsurging water discharge from the glaciers, coupled with aggravated monsoon rains that broke a 49-year record, wreaked havoc in both neighbouring countries.
A comparative look at the flooding situation in both countries reveals that around 2 million people were affected by the latest wave of floods in Pakistan’s Punjab, with nearly a million requiring rescue. However, the numbers on the Indian side reflect a stark difference, with the media reporting over 350,000 people being affected, with around 19,597 people being evacuated from flood-hit villages.
In addition to this, Pakistan has a significantly larger inundated area, i.e, according to PDMA reports, around 1.3 million acres of agricultural land have been submerged in floodwater, while the indian state has reported the inundation of 148,000 hectares of agricultural land. Another, often overlooked, aspect of flood damage is the livestock impact. There is little reported on the cattle deaths in both countries; however, reports from the provincial disaster management authority in Pakistan have revealed that around half a million livestock have been rescued up until September 2025
Why was Pakistan Hit Worse?
While authorities in Pakistan continue to press that the primary reason behind the excessive destruction is the “weaponization of water” by India, in reality, the difference is multi-causal, with several factors contributing to the difference in severity of the impact left by this climate catastrophe on both countries.
Firstly, it is important to put into perspective the size discrepancy of the impacted area in both countries. The Punjab on Pakistan’s side is 4 times larger than its Indian counterpart. This, coupled with the fact that accelerated glacial melting in the Karakoram and the record rainfall during the monsoon have produced an unusually heavy discharge in the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers, all of which sweep the majority of the Indus plain in Pakistan. With the inundated footprint expanding exponentially as the floodwater reaches Pakistan, Pakistan’s susceptibility to flood damage was automatically worsened compared to India.
Another factor compounding the effect of floods in Pakistan is the upstream reservoir discharge by India into already swollen rivers the resulting in a huge cross-border water flow. Even though Pakistani authorities have called the act “the worst example of water aggression” by India, with water released without timely warnings, it is necessary to establish the fact that water discharge and embankment breaches are among the standard protocols to ensure infrastructure integrity. And critical geography experts have said that “The Indian decision to release water from their dam has not caused flooding in Pakistan,” calling this statement an ‘oversimplification’ of the issue.
In addition to this, a comparison of the evacuation response of both countries points towards different approaches. Pakistan carried out mass evacuations with over half a million people fleeing their homes in over 24 hours, while India carried out focused evacuations, shifting people to safe places in response to dam water releases. This is indicative of overall better structural readiness on India’s end, despite the Pakistani Punjab’s Chief Minister issuing exclusive disaster preparedness orders in early July this year.
But perhaps one of the most crucial factors is the dense settlement and encroachment along these main tributaries and the building of housing and commercial areas. This is one of the main causes of the destruction, according to federal minister Khawaja Asif, because it directly impacts by decreasing the conveyance capacity of the rivers. Similar comments were made earlier this year by the Senate’s standing committee on Water Resources, which reported an “alarming increase in occupation of rivers and canals’ land” across all four provinces, including 153 encroachment cases in Punjab alone. Even though there are cases of encroachment reported across the border but the extent is trivial as compared to Pakistan.
Considering all these factors, it is then also crucial to examine the resulting socio-economic vulnerabilities of both countries. The Germanwatch Climate Risk Index (CRI) ranked Pakistan 1st on the list of highly impacted countries in 2022, while India was ranked 49th. With a higher ranking on the indices of climate vulnerability, coupled with its geographical makeup, Pakistan is expected to experience higher human impact per unit area flooded, as compared to India.
Experts have also cited political reasons behind the failure of adequate disaster management, criticising that three years after the disastrous floods in 202,2, which claimed the lives of over 1700 people government still hasn’t implemented any policy reforms to address the issue. This was further elaborated by an NDMA report on the structural damages caused by this year’s flooding, which pointed to the lack of structural resilience as a key factor in causing death and displacement.
Conclusion and Way Forward
Yet again, this year’s floods have exposed the fragile underbelly of South Asia’s climate resilience. While India’s Punjab has suffered losses too, the Pakistani province has taken the worst hit, its farmlands drowned, its villages emptied, and its recovery stretched thin. The difference doesn’t lie merely in upstream water releases; it is the outcome of decades of unplanned settlement, weak enforcement of riverine zoning laws, and inadequate investment in resilient infrastructure. For Pakistan, the path forward demands urgent action and dedicated lawmaking, i.e., restoring natural floodplains, enforcing encroachment removal, investing in early warning systems, and rethinking its agricultural heartland’s vulnerability.
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