Asia’s Arms Race
South Asian strategic stability is primarily shaped by the tri-polar nuclear system involving China, India, and Pakistan. The strategic nuclear balance of South Asia has remained stable for a long time and is now being threatened by China’s competition with the United States and India’s balancing efforts against China. This has triggered an arms race in the region, with Pakistan caught in the middle of it.
Since the acquisition of nuclear power, China, India, and Pakistan have not indulged themselves in a nuclear arms race, viewed their nuclear capability as a political instrument rather than a tool of warfighting, and maintained the posture of minimum deterrence. Nevertheless, recent developments have suggested that the era of nuclear stability and minimum deterrence is shaking in South Asia.
China’s Military Advancement
According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), China is rapidly modernizing and expanding its nuclear arsenals, with a stockpile of 500 warheads and 440 warheads available for delivery. In 2021, China started building 300 new ballistic missile silos, including three missile silo fields for solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). It also expanded the construction of new silos for liquid-fuel Dongfeng 5 (DF-5) ICBMs.
In addition to ICBMs, China has further increased production of dual-capable Dongfeng 26 (DF-26) intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM). Furthermore, type 094 ballistic missile submarines have been modified with longer-range JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). This addition was alarming for both the US and India because it confirmed their suspicion that China was trying to join the ranks of front-line nuclear powers. In the face of these developments, both India and the US have strengthened their partnership to keep a check on China’s increasing militarization in the Indo-Pacific.
India’s Agni-V
In response to China’s militarization, India has started to modernize its land-based ballistic missiles, and on March 11, 2024, India successfully tested the locally designed intercontinental ballistic missile Agni-V with MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle). The development of Agni-V is a technological breakthrough that has increased the striking capability of the Indian nuclear program.
The Agni-V, with a range of 5000 km, has MIRV technology, which means that a single missile can carry multiple warheads. Agni-V is India’s longest-range ballistic missile with a three-stage solid-fuel engine, whose first test was conducted in 2012. MIRV technology has improved it, which is a dangerous development because it increases the number of deployed warheads that can destroy multiple targets.
The Agni series of missiles and the Prithvi short-range ballistic missiles are the backbone of Indian nuclear weapons. India has also acquired nuclear triads by building nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which has increased India’s deterrence capacity. China acquired the MIRV technology back in 2015; thus, the Indian acquisition of this technology has had little impact on China. However, the defensive vulnerabilities of Pakistan have increased amid the successful testing of Agni-V.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Progress
Pakistan is also gradually upgrading and expanding its nuclear arsenals with more warheads and advanced delivery systems. In addition to current assets, there are several new delivery systems in the development process. Pakistan holds a full spectrum of nuclear weapons in strategic, operational, and tactical categories, which can cover a large part of the Indian landmass, up to 2750 kilometers (vertical element).
The full spectrum aspect of deterrence also covers the horizontal element, which refers to the Pakistani nuclear triad (army, navy, and air force). This posture was adopted in response to the Indian Cold Start Doctrine, where India intended to launch large-scale conventional strikes on Pakistani territories. In 2015, the Nasr ballistic missile (a tactical nuclear weapon) was born out of a compulsion to deter large Indian conventional forces. Moreover, in 2017, Pakistan tested Ababeel medium-range ballistic missiles with MIRV technology, which can strike multiple targets with three to eight nuclear warheads.
At the core of this issue are the asymmetries that have been directing all the recent nuclear arms races. The asymmetries are present in both the strategic force and strategic focus of the main regional players. In terms of strategic nuclear force, China is way ahead of both India and Pakistan, whereas India’s recent acquisition of Agni-V with MIRV along with a large conventional force can be detrimental to Pakistan’s defense system.
In addition to force, the strategic focus of all three nuclear powers also differs from each other. Pakistan’s strategic focus is aimed at India’s conventional and non-conventional military might, whereas Indian nuclear developments are mostly in response to China’s expanding regional influence. However, China’s nuclear efforts are aimed beyond regional rivalries and towards the global power struggle, primarily with the United States.
In response to recent nuclear developments in South Asia, Pakistan needs to adopt a more aggressive position to prevent India from undertaking any large-scale military action against Pakistan. India can strike anywhere in Pakistan with its MIRV technology in medium- and long-range missiles. However, the further development of MIRV by both states will increase the number of nuclear warheads, increase the nuclear arms race, and further damage regional stability. Pakistan’s military must take precautionary measures faster to ensure regional strategic equilibrium.
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