India and Bangladesh Relations In Tumultuous Times

Introduction

India and Bangladesh, countries sharing a 2,216km border have been coexisting on favorable terms ever since the birth of the Bengali nation in 1971. India was one of the first countries to recognize Bangladesh as an independent sovereign state when it came into being. Ever since the events of 1971, India has shown its support to Bangladesh through bilateral treaties and has become the second-largest trade partner for Bangladesh, after China. There have been several different trade initiatives between the two nations, as well as multiple developmental initiatives like the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline project, that have been used for the transportation of petroleum products and have greatly benefitted the economies of both nations. Other projects worthy of mention here are the Chattogram and Mongla ports which have exponentially increased trade between the two countries.

Historical Context

For the past 53 years, India and Bangladesh have been considered allies of one another, making their position strong in the region and giving them a certain influence over South Asia. Sheikh Hasina was the prime minister of Bangladesh for the past 15 years. When first elected in 1996, Hasina enjoyed huge support from the Bengalis and was seen as a beacon of hope. Her first tenure ended in 2001, after which she was re-elected to the office of prime minister in 2009. This second election in 2009 is seen by many experts as the start of Hasina’s unwavering support of the government of India.

In the beginning, Hasina’s effort to build a bilateral relationship with India by way of trade and development treaties was seen in a very positive light by the Bangladeshis. Although Sheikh Hasina and her policies were supported by the people in the beginning, in the more recent past the people of Bangladesh have suffered alleged atrocities at the hands of Hasina’s regime which has built a sense of hatred for the regime.

Political Turmoil and the Removal of Sheikh Hasina

The elections held in 2018 and 2024, marking Hasina’s 3rd and 4th appointment to the office of prime minister, were seen as rigged by the people of Bangladesh. The public was outraged at the results of the elections as, in their opinion, Hasina did not have popular support anymore, but her regime was being forced on Bangladesh and its people. This was also the first seed of animosity against India as the public believed that, India, a democratic state must show a reaction to the rigged elections if it had Bangladesh’s best interest in mind.

The Indian government stayed silent over the issue, making it more obvious that India’s support and alliance were with Sheikh Hasina and not with Bangladesh or its general population. A more recent development in India and Bangladesh relations was the events of 2024, where a student-led uprising in Bangladesh which originally started with the demand for quota system reforms eventually ended in the ouster of the then-prime minister of Bangladesh, Shaikh Hasina, on August 5th, 2024.

Allegations of Favoritism and Human Rights Violations

It was not just India that was showing unwavering support to the regime; Sheikh Hasina was also believed to be favoring India over the interests of the people of Bangladesh. In the events of the water sharing disputes and the Farakka Barrage water crisis in Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina was seen leaning towards India over the Bengali citizens. It confirmed the doubts of the general population that the bilateral ties were not between the two states but rather between Hasina’s regime and India.

In addition to her unfair favoring of India, Hasina and her regime have allegedly been involved in committing many atrocities in Bangladesh in her 15 years in office. The regime has allegedly been responsible for at least 600 illegal disappearances and multiple incidents of extrajudicial killings in the country, for which she is yet to be held accountable by the Bangladeshi courts. In addition to this, during the student-led uprising in 2022-2024, there were allegedly 1,500 deaths during the protests resulting in the ouster of Hasina.

India’s Crucial Role in the Political Crisis

Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India and was given refuge by the Indian government, has been the largest factor causing the recent drift between the two countries. Hasina, wanted in Bangladesh for her alleged atrocities, is being treated as a guest in India which is seen as a huge intervention of India in the domestic matters of Bangladesh. This has been criticized by many as it is seen as the main point of contention between the two nations. This act of India yet again solidifies the thought that India is in favor of Hasina and her regime more than Bangladesh and its general populace.

Religious and Social Unrest

Right after Sheikh Hasina was ousted from her office and fled the country, there was a period of extreme unrest and disorder in the country. During this time, there were multiple incidents of political attacks carried out across the country, the victims of which were almost all religious and social communities of the country. In these attacks, there were also some unfortunate incidents in which the Hindu minorities fell victim.

This situation, however, was put to rest when the interim government came to power. It has been claimed by Bangladeshi officials that the situation in Bangladesh on the ground has been much more peaceful ever since. But, on the other hand, India believes that the attacks against the Hindu minorities were downplayed by the interim government of Bangladesh. India has termed these attacks as an attempt at “ethnic cleansing” of the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. This claim has been refuted by Mohammad Yunus’s interim government which has even invited Indian media and other claimants to observe the situation on the ground by visiting Bangladesh themselves.

Attack on the Bangladeshi Consulate

In a recent event, Chinmoy Krishna Das, a Hindu monk in Bangladesh has been arrested by officials on charges of sedition. This gave the Indian media and civil society another reason to believe atrocities were being carried out against the Hindu minorities. They believe that Chinmoy Das’s arrest is influenced by the fact that he is a Hindu monk and therefore, India has requested his bail. This request has been denied by the interim government of Bangladesh and it has been seen by many as an attempt by India to meddle in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs, resulting in the two nations drifting further apart.

The Indian media and its civil society have been seen taking up the issue of the alleged ethnic cleansing of the Hindus a lot. It has even been used as a narrative to solidify votes by multiple political parties in India. This has, however, resulted in serious unrest in India which ended in an attack on Bangladesh’s consulate in Agartala, India, that too in the presence of police which has raised concerns on where the situation is headed.

Implications for Pakistan

The recent events in South Asia have caused unrest and affected the bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh. However, this situation has resulted in a golden opportunity for Pakistan to mend its history with Bangladesh through diplomacy. Since 1971, there has been an unspoken rift between Pakistan and Bangladesh which was solidified during the rule of Sheikh Hasina’s regime.

Since, 2018 there hasn’t been any direct air travel between the two nations but the situation has now changed. According to Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to Pakistan, direct flights between the states are going to be resumed once again. After the student-led uprising in Bangladesh, there was massive support from the Pakistani general population for Bangladesh which was seen in a very positive light. Ever since then, efforts have been made by both nations to revive their diplomatic relations and support for one another.

Geopolitical Shifts

According to many Indian media and civil society members, the overthrow of Hasina’s government was never the sole effort of the people of Bangladesh, but they believed that there was always a “foreign conspiracy” backing the uprising. This foreign conspiracy, in their opinion, comes directly from Pakistan while China acts as a silent factor. This narrative of the Indian media and civil society has further disappointed the Bangladeshis and as a result, they have become more inclined towards other countries in the region, including China and Pakistan.

Since Sheikh Hasina was overthrown, an increase in trade between Pakistan and Bangladesh has been witnessed. Pakistan has also initiated the trade of weapons which has concerned the Indian government. China is now the biggest arms supplier to Pakistan and now, to Bangladesh as well. Additionally, the two states are also reportedly backed by Turkey. This can result in a future, where these countries, due to shared interest and strategic diplomacy may form an alliance that can severely weaken the position and influence of India in the region.

Conclusion

India’s smear campaign against Bangladesh’s interim government, its efforts to undermine the revolutionary student-led uprising of 2022-2024, and its decision to shelter Sheikh Hasina despite Bangladesh’s request for her extradition have fueled deep mistrust between the two nations. This growing rift could strain bilateral relations and potentially leave India facing challenges on three fronts—China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh—ultimately weakening its regional influence.

As of right now, both nations need to establish certain regulations as, according to many, India will not be able to micromanage Bangladesh as it has been doing since 1971. The Indian foreign secretary’s visit to Bangladesh is seen as a step to revive diplomatic relations between the two countries. India needs to realize that the ties between the two nations must not be dependent on the individuals who are ruling the country but instead should be solely dependent on the interests of the two nations. India needs to show leadership diplomacy and strategic realism in the current situation, the first step to which may be the extradition of Sheikh Hasina back to Bangladesh.

Ever since the events of August 2024, Pakistan has shown immense support for the interim government of Bangladesh, evident from the recent meeting of Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan, with Mohammad Yunus, the chief advisor of Bangladesh. Since the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government, the Pakistani media and its civil society have been seen celebrating this as a revolutionary moment for Bangladesh. There has been a popular sentiment of “one nation two states” prevailing in Pakistan. Pakistan, at this point, must initiate diplomatic policies where the two countries may be able to mend their history and move forward with mutual respect for sovereignty and regional stability.

---

If you want to submit your articles and/or research papers, please check the Submissions page.

The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.