Mongolia, a landlocked enclave between two major powers i.e. China and Russia, holds significance in the geopolitical orbit. Mongolia has adopted various foreign policy initiatives, primarily the “Third Neighbor Policy,” to balance as well as broaden its relations with its immediate neighbors alongside other developed states. Under such a set of circumstances, Pakistan could potentially act as Mongolia’s viable partner, exploiting the juncture to play a larger role overall in the region.
Mongolia’s history began with Genghis Khan, who established the renowned Mongol Empire by uniting the Mongol tribes and conquering South Asia in the 13th century. Consequently, the Jin Dynasty of China was overthrown by his successor, Ogodei, in 1234. In the 14th century with the arrival of Manchu Qing (China), Mongols were overtaken and became part of the Qing Dynasty in the 17th century. After the fall of the Qing in 1912, with Soviet support, the Mongolian People’s Republic emerged in 1924.
Today, Mongolia’s 3.5 million citizens live in an area of 603,953 sq meters, making it one of the world’s least densely populated countries. Situated in Central Asia’s bitterly cold territory, it lacks access to the sea. Besides livestock and agriculture being major contributors to the economy, state-planned economic charting in the 1960s emphasized forming industries (metallurgy and building materials). This encouraged cross-border linkages, resulting in rapid economic growth. Currently, the country boasts the best cashmere yarn in the world, enormous environmental and cultural tourism potential, and an abundant supply of mineral resources which notably include copper, tungsten, gold, and fluorite.
Relations with China and Russia
Mongolia is a middle state, encircled by Russia to the north and China to the south. Influenced by its neighbors since its existence, strengthening self-sovereignty had been by far Mongolia’s core national interest.
Mongolia-Russia Relations:
Russia-Mongolia diplomatic relations were established in November 1921 with the respective embassies’ setup in 1922. Afterward, high-level visits took place between the two states for several decades. Their defense cooperation included joint exercises such as “Darkhan-3” in 2010 and “Selenga-2011” that took place in Russia and trained Mongolian soldiers to combat sectarianism and terrorism.
The Treaty of Friendly Relations and Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed between the two on 3rd September 2019 strengthened relations considerably. Additionally, by participating in regional forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Mongolia opened up communication channels with Russia, promoting a discussion on privacy and security challenges. Russia’s position in imports (25–35%) with Mongolia has remained at the top, while the share of exports has dropped significantly (down to 1%) over the years. This reflects an imbalanced trade between the states.
Mongolia-China Relations:
Mongolia and China established their respective embassies in 1950. However, they built an official alliance in 1994 by signing the Treaty of Cooperation and Friendship stating; “the relations are based on the principles of reciprocal respect of each other’s sovereignty, independence, territorial jurisdiction, and development of cooperation-based relations.”
China has served as Mongolia’s key trading partner since 1997 in the wake of shifting trade patterns brought about by the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Both nations expanded their diplomatic ties to a strategic partnership in 2011 emphasizing three key commitments:
(a) Refraining from joining any military alliance and allowing a third party to use its territory.
(b) Endorsing the Chinese Government’s stances on issues about Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang.
(c) Regularly scheduling high-level visits.
In August 2014, during Xi Jinping’s visit to Mongolia, both signed a “Joint Declaration on Developing Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” stepping up the inter-state diplomatic relations. The 2015 China-Mongolia Scientific and Technological Cooperation Agreement demonstrated shared interests in technological advancement. In 2016, Mongolia joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the flagship project named “China-Mongolia-Russia” Economic Corridor. Under BRI, China is expected to bring in around $30 billion of credit for infrastructure projects aligning with the Steppe Road Program—Mongolia’s National Development Initiative.
Mongolia’s Third Neighbor Policy Framework and its Dividends
During his first visit to Mongolia in the 1990s, the US Secretary of State James Baker coined the term “Third Neighbor Policy (TNP)” saying that “Mongolia should classify its relations with its immediate neighbors i.e. Russia and China, concurrently reinforcing its relations with the US thus having three big neighbors.”
After the concept was introduced formally, Mongolia started reaching out to developed states by sending diplomatic notes to break the ice and then extend cooperation in different areas along with the US to broaden its geopolitical horizons. These were sent to France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and several other states requesting Mongolia’s global recognition as an independent state. These efforts reflected Mongolia’s attempt to minimize economic, political, and ideological dependence on its immediate neighbors.
Broadening Horizons
- Mongolia-US Relations:
US-Mongolia is a competent partnership as it helps Mongolia tackle geopolitical transitions. The Mongolian embassy in the US is one of the largest across all its consulates. Under the auspices of TNP, Ulaanbaatar and Washington endorsed mutual values in international coalitions. For instance, Mongolia presided over the Community of Democracies and the two nations collaborated via the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
By enforcing UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea’s missile programs, Mongolia has won the trust of the US Joint initiatives such as the 2017 Mongolia-US Cybersecurity Dialogue represent bilateral attempts to enhance cyber resilience. The US government’s equipment and training, support Mongolia’s defense forces. Likewise, the US military frequently takes part in peacekeeping exercises such as the annual Khaan Quest exercise, an event hosted by Mongolia.
Signing bilateral agreements such as the US-Mongolia Transparency Agreement 2017, Mongolia Third Neighbor Trade Act 2018, and Mongolian exports to the US with an annual growth of 1.84% from 1995 to 2021 reflects adequate economic partnership and diplomacy between the United States and Mongolia.
Overall, Mongolia sought balanced relations with global power centers i.e. Russia, China, and the US, forging extensive partnerships. This aided Mongolia in sustaining credible relations without compromising its sovereignty.
- Mongolia-Pakistan Relations:
In 2010, the National Strategy of Mongolia; Article 3.1.1.5 stated “Pursuant to a “third neighbor” strategy, bilateral and multilateral cooperation with highly developed democracies in political, economic, cultural, and humanitarian affairs shall be undertaken.” As an endorsement of this policy, TNP opened doors for other states to develop relations with Mongolia wherein Pakistan can act as a considerable beneficiary.
With an estimated surge of 6.2% in economic growth suggested by the World Bank, Mongolia holds trade worth $24 billion. Meanwhile, Mongolian trade with Pakistan stands at a trade volume of merely $4.8 million, which must be expanded. Upgrading such economic relations could be a favorable strategic move for both nations as it provides a solid base to further cooperate in mining and agriculture–especially the cotton industry, boost investment, and engage in joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. Ultimately, cooperation in the realm of sustainable development (SDGs), education, and climate (green energy initiatives) will reap greater benefits for the collective good of both states.
- Declared Third Neighbors of Mongolia:
| States | Areas of Cooperation |
| Japan | Commercial, strategic, and development cooperation. |
| India | Defense, digital space, surveillance, and border patrolling. |
| Turkey | Tourism, counter-terrorism and environment. |
| Germany | Energy, archaeology, and legislation. |
| South Korea | Education, governance, and health. |
| Canada | Commerce, peace-keeping, and human rights. |
| Australia | Defense, commerce, and people-to-people exchanges. |
The table above unveils Mongolia’s relations with its declared third neighbors reflecting the practical implications of TNP.
Mongolia’s astute navigation of its position on the geopolitical chessboard, balancing relations with its immediate neighbors, and fostering of its third-neighbor partnerships is an arduous milestone. Still, it managed to yield conclusive autonomy for the state. Amid ongoing geopolitical competition between states, wherein bloc politics is largely at play and states are coerced to align with a single bloc, Mongolia is acting neutral, advocating for democratic norms in all its partnerships reflecting independence from global stakes. This nuanced approach has played a pivotal role in Mongolia’s success as a middle power on the global stage.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
The author is a seasoned geopolitical analyst currently pursuing her MPhil in Peace and Conflict Studies at the National Defence University Islamabad, Pakistan. Her areas of research interest are Peace-Development Nexus, Global Studies, and International Political Economy.
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