Agriculture is one of the most important sub-sectors of Pakistan and contributes significantly to food security, providing employment opportunities and a source of foreign exchange earnings. It provides almost 20% of the national Gross Domestic Product and 48% of the total occupational populace of the country. Pakistan’s exportable agriculture crops are essential for stabilizing foreign exchange revenue. However, this sector – vital to the economy of Pakistan – is slowly being threatened by a global issue known as climate change.
Climate change is not just a theory but a current phenomenon that greatly impacts the modification of agricultural systems. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan has been ranked as the fifth most detrimentally affected country by climate change. That is why the consequences of climate change are most alarming for a country like Pakistan, where agriculture very much depends on seasonal rains and rather stable weather conditions.
Current State of Pakistan’s Agricultural Exports
Pakistan mainly exports rice, cotton, wheat, and fruits like mangoes and citrus. These products are essential for both the local consumers and the export market, with major export markets being the Middle East, Europe, and North America. But current signalization shows that the steady base of these exports is a little at risk, at least in the not-too-distant future, though one cannot refer to the unambiguous threats emanating from such sources as impacts of climate change.
For example, rice, especially superior quality basmati rice, is one of the most exported items of Pakistan. Yet, fluctuations in temperature and water are already impacting the rice yield necessary for exports to be consistent. Likewise, cotton, on which Pakistan largely relies as a part of the textile industry, is also going through difficulties because of temperature increases and unpredictable seasons. The disruption of these crops is very relevant to the national economy and a major concern to millions of farmers whose sources of income depend on this vegetation.
Challenges to Agricultural Exports
Impact on Crop Yields
Due to the increase in global temperatures, heat waves have become more frequent and intense in Pakistan, which is unsuitable for or detrimental to the growth and productivity of important crops. Wheat, which is a food security and a major export crop, is vulnerable to changes in temperature, especially in the flowering and grain-filling phases. Increased temperatures may have a detrimental effect that leads to early maturity and thus low yields and poor grain quality. Similarly, rice needs certain environmental conditions for its production and suffers from irregular monsoons that bring about either drought or floods, both of which have adverse impacts on yields.
Besides temperature, other factors are important for crop production, such as water availability and water timing. The agriculture of Pakistan largely depends on the Indus River system, which is supplied by the water stored in the glaciers of the Himalayas. Global warming is raising the glacier rate and is likely to deplete the long-term water supply as the glaciers recede and cause initial enhanced river flows. This leads to fluctuations in water supply as well as fluctuations in rainfall. All these changes not only affect the yields but make the production costly to the growers because they may need to install irrigation systems or undertake other adjustments to support their crops.
Food Insecurity
A high level of food insecurity is also experienced in Pakistan due to the lowering productivity of agriculture as a result of climate change. When the yields of the crops reduce, food production reduces, hence prices are high and only a few people can afford the food, especially in a country where many live in a state of poverty. Increased cost of food can cause further poverty and lead to social conflict since most of its populations depend on farming for food and income in the rural areas. Not only is food access weakening, but farmers’ income is also decreasing, so they cannot easily shift to other kinds of jobs or substitutes for crops.
Market Competitiveness
India and Vietnam are such countries that have put a lot of effort into making their agriculture climate-smart and have either held on to or gained more market share. On the other hand, the agriculture of Pakistan is on the brink of becoming uncompetitive because of yield decline, produce quality deterioration, and supply chain disruptions triggered by climatic factors. Thus, potential changes in the quality of Pakistan’s agricultural products could act as a trigger for long-term economic consequences as global markets become increasingly competitive.
Economic Impacts
The economic impacts of climate change on the exportation of agricultural products in Pakistan cannot be overemphasized. The performance of agriculture is important in foreign exchange earnings, and whenever the fruits of agriculture go down, the export volumes also reduce, ultimately affecting the balance of payment. For example, rice and cotton, which are leading agricultural products exported by Pakistan, are being threatened by climate change impacts. These crops have reduced yield and quality, which hampers Pakistan’s ability to penetrate international markets and has the potential to lead to a loss in market share and foreign exchange earnings.
Moreover, excessive rains and droughts common in most regions affect the supply chain and other productions, which isolates the transport of agricultural produce to local and international markets, just like the floods in 2022. They led to the destruction of crops, roads, and storage facilities greatly affected the exports of agricultural produce for that financial year. Not only do these disruptions present immediate and short-term economic consequences, but they also pose a problem about the sector’s potential for recovery and sustainable development in the long run.
These economic issues are, however, further complicated by the reality that a majority of Pakistan’s agricultural producers are low-income farmers with restricted capital to spend on adaptive inputs or measures. This means that the sector is not well endowed to deal with climate shocks, hence being at the receiving end of climate change effects. What makes smallholders vulnerable is that they are unable to access credit and insurance, which would enable them to adopt better production techniques or recover from losses prompted by disasters.
Opportunities
Although there is much uncertainty about the future effects of climate change on the agricultural sector, there is potential for Pakistan to embrace new climate change-friendly measures, which can support agriculture in this climate
Climate Resilient Practices
Among the viable solutions is the cultivation of genetically climate-resistant plant hybrids that can effectively counter the consequences of the changing climate. Such crops are those that have been developed by selecting plants with better tolerance to heat, water deficits, and other unfavorable climate characteristics. Such low water-resistant wheat and heat-tolerant rice qualities used in Pakistan have been brought into development and experimentation. These crops can guarantee food production even as some of the normal crops fail to produce normal production due to climate change.
The use of effective irrigation water management is another best practice. Technologies like drip irrigation and rainwater harvesting can be used to ensure that unpredictable water availability is utilized properly. These technologies not only affect the capacity of water use but also increase yields, leading to food security as well as increasing export ability.
A technique that can also contribute to reducing the impacts of climate change is conservation agriculture. Specific techniques in this practice include reduced tillage, which means causing little disturbance to the soil, keeping an unbroken soil cover at all times, and including varieties of crops in rotations. It enhances fertility, conserves water, and decreases the use of fertilizers; hence, it is sustainable and climatically appropriate agriculture. The above-discussed practices can help Pakistani farmers make their farming systems more climate-smart and protect the future of agricultural exports to Pakistan.
Climate Compliance Assistance
Under the Paris Agreement, Pakistan has the opportunity to receive climatic funding which can help to finance activities of reduction and adaptation in the agriculture sector. These funds can be applied to the construction of investments such as production storage capacity or transport systems. They are important in protecting agricultural produce from climate effects as well as ensuring that they are of high quality and competitive in the international market.
The help from countries like the Netherlands that are well experienced in water management could assist Pakistan to embrace more appropriate methods of irrigation to deal with water issues. Furthermore, using climate provisions in trade can also help offer Pakistani agricultural products market access in countries that appreciate sustainable products. In addition, if Pakistan complies with climate and environment-friendly agriculture practices with international standards, it can seek an advantage in its agricultural product in the global markets.
Response from the Government
The Government of Pakistan has understood the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change and has formulated several policies related to this issue. According to the National Climate Change Policy 2023, specific steps are proposed in the areas of sustainable agriculture, water resource management, and advancing technology. Similarly, different government departments are offering subsidies to install improved forms of irrigation and to buy drought-tolerant seeds as per new-life desires.
Conclusion
To conclude, it is possible to state that the threats that climate change brings to Pakistan’s agricultural exports are rather significant but not beyond the country’s capabilities and capacities to counter them. However, if the appropriate combination of well-thought-out policy, appropriate technological advancements, and international cooperation is employed, Pakistan can transform these challenges into opportunities and ensure the future of agriculture in Pakistan and for millions of Pakistan’s population.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Hiba Amjad is a committed and driven student currently pursuing her bachelor's in strategic studies from the National Defence University, Islamabad. My areas of interest include human security, Middle Eastern security issues, arms control and disarmament, climate change, information, cyber warfare, the rise of terrorism in Pakistan, and different traditional and nontraditional security issues.