From a Bird’s Eye View
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not only jolted the regional political and economic dynamics but is continuing to have severe implications for countries around the globe. Pakistan is among the countries bearing the brunt of fluctuating oil and gas prices emanating from the Russia-Ukraine war due to its dependence on imported fuel. For instance, initially, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contributed to a record surge in LNG rates as the global supply chain was threatened with disruptions.
This also caused immediate issues for Pakistan, as LNG companies walked back on their contracts with Pakistan to exploit lucrative European markets. Resultantly, Pakistan was compelled to purchase expensive LNG. Despite political and economic instability, Pakistan has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. For instance, Pakistan abstained from voting against Russia in the United Nations General Assembly to stay neutral.
This can be attributed to Pakistan’s bilateral relations, particularly military relations with Ukraine, and sustained efforts to secure economic ties with Russia. Though there have been allegations against Pakistan for supplying military weapons, particularly arms and ammunition, to Ukraine, these are without any solid testimony.
Pakistan’s Relations with Ukraine
Pakistan’s relations with Kyiv are concerned with weaponry. The relations date back to 1991 when both countries pledged to enhance cooperation in the defense sector. In 1996, Pakistan ordered the Kharkiv Machine Building Design Bureau (KMDB) to manufacture 320 T-80UD tanks by signing various memoranda of understanding (MOU). These were later delivered from 1997 to 1998.
Additionally, Ukraine has also produced scores of 6TD‑1 (used for T‑80s) and 6TD‑2 diesel engines, that have been utilized for the Chinese-Pakistani MBT‑2000 tank, more commonly known as Al-Khalid. Moreover, in November 2016, Pakistan and Ukraine signed a $600 million MoU to supply 200 diesel engines for Al-Khalid 1 MBTs. This aimed to deliver technical support for the maintenance and modernization of other Pakistan Army tanks and armored vehicles.
Furthermore, another MoU was signed in February, which reportedly had Ukraine and Pakistan agree to the co-production of tank engine parts. In 2021 alone, Pakistan signed an $85.6 million contract to repair its T‑80UD fleet in Ukraine. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) databases report that from 1991-2020, Ukraine had completed arms contracts worth nearly $1.6 billion with Pakistan.
Moreover, in 2023, the foreign minister of Ukraine came on a two-day visit to Pakistan and asked for Pakistan’s assistance in an “appropriate manner” to secure its territorial sovereignty and integrity from Russia. However, Pakistan’s assistance for Ukraine is merely predicated on humanitarian grounds involving the supply of humanitarian aid.
Relations with Russia
Comparatively, Pakistan’s relations with Russia remain strained for several years. This could be attributed to Pakistan’s decision to side with the West in the Cold War. Furthermore, Russia’s increasing relations with India and the former Soviet Union’s policy in Afghanistan added fuel to the fire. However, as the world is transforming into a multipolar world with the rise of several powers and the formation of new blocs and alliances, Pakistan is also looking for alternative options to boost its economy.
Consequently, Pakistan is in desperate need of vetting its relations with Russia. In 2014, the positive emblems began rearing heads when Russia lifted the long arms embargo from Pakistan and sold Mi-35 attack helicopters to Islamabad. However, this was aimed at India, as it opted for Boeing’s Chinook and Apache models over Russian supplies. Through this, Russia declared to India that it could secure any other market for the sales of military hardware.
Mending relations with Russia is a sine qua non for Pakistan as China and Saudi Arabia alone cannot extinguish the economic thrust of the country. Consequently, the energy crisis faced by Pakistan would be curtailed by importing oil and gas from Russia at discounted prices. This is demonstrated by the fact that Pakistan was able to import crude oil in 2023 at discounted prices after the West imposed sanctions on Russia. Many countries tended to diversify sources to lessen their dependence on Russia’s supplies of hydrocarbons, such as crude oil and gas.
Additionally, Russia, while underscoring the indispensability of Pakistan at the summit of the SCO held in Uzbekistan, declared Pakistan a “priority partner” in South Asia. Furthermore, Pakistan has expressed a desire to join BRICS, an intergovernmental organization formed by China and Russia to de-dollarize the world. Recently, Pakistan has become part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km (4500-mile) trade corridor that starts from Mumbai and ends in Moscow. This like CPEC would help Pakistan’s shortest trade routes, to transport goods in a short period to Moscow.
Kashmir Issue and Its Relevance with the Ukraine War
Kashmir holds unprecedented significance in the strategic and foreign policy objectives of Pakistan. Consequently, one cannot comprehend and analyze the stance of Pakistan on the Russia-Ukraine war without understanding its comparable dynamics with the Kashmir cause. The roots of both conflicts can be attributed to the postcolonial informal empire (PIE) framework.
Unlike formal emperors who ruled through direct control, PIE (India and Russia) exercises control indirectly either by discarding peripheral identities (Kashmir and Eastern Ukraine) or by promoting their national identity. Furthermore, Russia’s actions in Ukraine are similar to India’s actions in Kashmir. For instance, Russia views the eastern regions of Ukraine, as part of its sphere of influence. Consequently, it resorted to launching ambushes to protect its interests, which are akin to India’s approach to Kashmir.
The process of decolonization also played a significant role in creating contested identities. For instance, in Ukraine, the process rendered a divided nation entangled between pro-European and pro-Russian, striving to meet their aspirations. These divisions were further ignited in the wake of conflicts in Donetsk and Lugansk.
Similarly, Kashmir was torn apart between India, Pakistan, and China. The contested identity can be attributed to a clash between Indian attempts to preempt the separate identity of Kashmir that is met with opposition from local people’s aspirations for independence. Consequently, both cases involve a central power asserting control over a region with a distinct identity that challenges the dominant national narrative. Additionally, both Kashmiris and Ukrainians are fighting to preserve their rights of “self-determination.”
What Must Pakistan Do?
In light of the similarity between the dynamics of the Kashmir conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation, Pakistan is supposed to support Ukraine diplomatically. It is an objective of the foreign policy of Pakistan to support the rights of self-determination of oppressed nations. Legally, Ukraine is right as its sovereignty has been breached. On the other hand, for Russia, the expansion of NATO to its border poses the greatest threat to its national security.
However, Ukraine has been a victim of foreign aggression, the same thing Pakistan experienced in the 1971 war that led to the dismemberment of the country. Yet, the political and economic turmoil in Pakistan doesn’t let Pakistan digress from a neutral stance. Consequently, Pakistan has to remain neutral while propping up the three main principles of conflict resolution—mediation, negotiations, and rendering good offices.
Furthermore, concerning allegations against Pakistan for selling military weaponry to Ukraine, there is nothing wrong if Pakistan surreptitiously supplies weaponry to Ukraine. Many strong economies of the world, namely the USA, Israel, France, China, and Russia, fulfill the largest chunk of their defense budget by selling military weaponry to other countries.
For instance, the US accounts for more than 40% of the planet’s weapons exports. Additionally, Russia also supplies arms to our rival country, India. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that Russia supplied 65% of India’s weapons, worth more than $60 billion during the last two decades. This would assist Pakistan in offsetting its defense expenditures while redirecting revenue towards other economic activities. In a nutshell, Pakistan needs to put its own house in order before pursuing an independent foreign policy so that it may have a strong stance in the global political arena.
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Qirat Mirza is currently pursuing her bachelor’s degree in international relations from International Islamic University Islamabad. She is also a writer for Modern Diplomacy, International Affairs Forum, Pakistan Today, KIIR, CISS AJK, and Pak Observer. Recently, she completed a six-week internship at the Kashmir Institute of International Relations and the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) to foster her academic insights and gain practical experience.