Since its inception, Pakistan’s relations with the US have remained the epitome of vicissitudes and mutability. Both countries are bound by an intricate network of trust deficits and evolving patterns in the world order. From calling Pakistan “a global migraine” to the “best ally in fighting the Soviets” during the 1979 Afghanistan invasion, the changing American policy has never failed in capturing the eyeballs of the masses all over the world.
Anyhow, without any skepticism, political scientists and military strategists have developed a consensus over the fact that nothing has strained the on-off partnership between the two countries more than the nuclear program in Pakistan. Both countries once again became the talk of the town when the US imposed sanctions on infamous Chinese companies that it believed were involved in supplying equipment for long-range ballistic missiles to Pakistan.
On 18th December, Biden’s administration imposed more sanctions on four Pakistani companies. The sanctioned entities include Pakistan’s National Development Complex, Affiliates International, Rockside Enterprise, and Akhtar and Sons Private Limited. The former entity is based in Islamabad and the latter three are stationed in Karachi. As per the statement issued by the US government, “these four sanctioned entities are involved in making long-range ballistic missiles capable of mass destruction.”
Among the sanctioned items is a unique vehicle chassis that provides support to ballistic missile testing equipment. Pakistan reciprocated the sanctions by calling them “biased and unfortunate.” Islamabad stressed that protecting its sovereignty is the prime responsibility of the state and it will continue to do so despite repeated sanctions.
A few months ago, the US imposed sanctions on infamous Chinese companies that it believed were involved in supplying equipment for long-range ballistic missiles to Pakistan. While shedding light on the recent sanctions, the US State Department spokesman, Mathew Miller, commented that the sanctioned Chinese companies were involved in procuring apparatus needed to test motors for Ababeel and Shaheen-3 missile systems. The US Department of State called it an act of “proliferation” and warned that such suspicious activities would always be dealt with with an iron hand. In response, Pakistan’s foreign office has implored “truth-based evidence.” Not to forget that the US has sanctioned Pakistani and Chinese entities for the 6th time since 2021. Despite all the sanctions and international concerns, Pakistan is continuing with its nuclear program, and it has its justifications for that.
The Nuclear Program of Pakistan
The seeds of the nuclear program were sown by the late PM Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. The Fall of Dhaka played an inevitable part in causing the mushroom growth of nuclear technology in Pakistan. Considering the aftermath of East Pakistan’s separation and the role undertaken by the Indian-hatched conspiracies, Bhutto urged the newly formed Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) to prepare nuclear bombs for deterrent purposes.
The process was accelerated after the news of testing nuclear devices from India came to the surface in 1974. With France stepping back from providing a reprocessing plant to Pakistan and the US imposing economic sanctions on Pakistan, the nuclear program suffered a blow. Under these circumstances, eyeballs were shifted from plutonium technology to a uranium centrifuge program under the tutelage of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan.
No single decade has inflicted more significant changes in the history of Pakistan than the 1970s. In the immediate neighbourhood, this decade marked the beginning of the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. From inside, the country was engulfed in economic repression and political chaos. The deposition and execution of Bhutto further exacerbated the situation.
Despite this, the nuclear program was not halted. Instead, Pakistan succeeded in obtaining bomb-grade material, structuring the first nuclear explosive device and devising a rudimentary deterrence protocol. Pakistan surprised the world when it conducted 5 nuclear tests on Ras Koh hills on 28th and 30th May 1998, a few days after India carried out successful testing of bombs under a project named Buddha Smiles.
A Matter of Existence for Pakistan
Renowned international relations strategist Dr. Eayers once said, “Pacts may be broken, treaties unilaterally denounced, but geography holds its victim fasts.” This statement goes hand in hand with the geographical location of Pakistan. The location of Pakistan on the world map has always opened a door to unprecedented opportunities and irreversible damage.
Sandwiched between New Delhi and Kabul, it cannot let go of its nuclear program despite numerous sanctions and embargoes, as it will result in an existential crisis in the state. The strategic stability of our region rests on the nuclear balance between India and Pakistan. Pakistan started this venture to deter India. America’s latests sanctions highlight its double standards and discriminatory practices when it comes to non-proliferation. Its policies have dangerous implications for the region and beyond, For Pakistan, the quest for strengthening and safeguarding the nuclear arsenal (including the long-range ballistic missile program) has become the cornerstone of the country’s foreign policy.
From a decent political directive, nuclear assets have become the highest national priority of the state. No matter what the international media says, Pakistan is determined to safeguard itself from external threats. While it is not a proponent of “proliferation,” it has always supported the idea of minimum credible deterrence (MCD).
Pakistan’s Pivotal Role in the Muslim World
Jamat-i-Islami senator Khurshid Ahmad once affirmed, “Pakistan is the only Muslim state to have nuclear weapons. Therefore, the future of the Muslim world would largely depend on Pakistan.” This seems true in the current scenario. The Israel-Palestine conflict, together with the assassination of Muslim leader Ismail Haniyeh in 2024, skirmishes between Lebanon and Israel, and the plight of Syrian Muslims, have compelled Pakistani strategists to think beyond the border and enhance its nuclear capabilities.
Woven by the teachings of the Holy Quran and Sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), Pakistan is contemplating the role it can play in restoring peace and de-escalating the situation in the region. This is one of the reasons why it is reluctant to halt the nuclear project in defiance of the US sanctions.
Recent US Sanctions: An Example of Cold War Between Major Powers
The senior military strategists and civil bureaucracy believe that the recent US sanctions have little to do with Pakistan and more to do with the US-China rivalry. By imposing sanctions and embargoes, the US aims to undermine China’s influence in the region. The US is stuck in the Thucydides Trap. It believes that a stronger China will not only pose a danger to its already dwindling hegemony but also become a threat to India, its only proxy in South Asia.
Imposing sanctions is a way to prevent China from amassing more economic power. By the time mentioned, the US was busy with the Russia-Ukraine crisis, presidential elections, and the Israel-Palestine conflict. So, it cannot get involved with China or allow it to grow politically, militarily, or economically.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal – A Potential Threat to Israel
In his book, “Great Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East,” Steven Simon has compared the current state of US-Israel relations to the “empty-nest syndrome,” suggesting that it is hard for the US to culminate its relentless support to Israel—its long-standing rival and only proxy in the Middle East.
The US discerns the acquisition of ballistic missile and missile testing in the territory of Pakistan as a direct threat to Israel on religious grounds. Sanctions are a way to remind Pakistan of its loyalty to the US. Regardless of the efforts, Islamabad is not in the mood to entertain any delay in its venture.
Future Prospects For Pakistan in the Current Scenario
Over the past few years, Pakistan has shifted its foreign policy from geo-strategic to geo-economic. This has not only allowed Pakistan to develop diplomatic relations with other states but also lessened its over-dependence on the US. This has bolstered the confidence in Pakistan to continue its nuclear and missile development program.
The foremost thing Pakistan can do in the changing regional and world scenario is to introduce a moderate civil government with the capability to maintain civil-military relations. A stable government will not only enhance the economy but also cut down the funds that are otherwise spared to suppress demonstrations and rallies. Besides, it will boost the confidence of the masses and encourage them to invest in the market. Pakistan can not disregard the fact that foreign investment is only attracted to a stable country.
Without a stable and moderate government, unemployment and stagflation will continue to blossom to the point that Bhutto’s prophecy “eat grass or go hungry to make nuclear weapons” might come true.
Conclusion
The geostrategic model of Pakistan is founded on the principles of sui generis, which implies that Pakistan weighs its potencies and vulnerabilities to explore different force-planning options. Its geographical location multiplies its vulnerabilities. It can not overlook the inescapable problems such as lack of strategic depth, the closeness of communication centers to New Delhi military thrusts, and the rise of the anti-Pakistan government in Afghanistan. All these forces condense to make the nuclear program its foremost priority.
While Pakistan cannot disregard international sanctions and consents, it needs to shift its focus to the country’s internal dynamics. In the book “Eating Grass: Making of Pakistani Bomb,” the author emphasizes how internal threats can entail greater dangers compared to external threats. Hopefully, policymakers will take into account the internal issues while going forward with their nuclear policy amidst the sanctions on Pakistan.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Gul Naz received a degree in MPhil Zoology in 2023 from the University of Okara. Besides deriving strength from bibliotherapy, she finds solace in producing articles based on contemporary issues from different parts of the globe.