2024 shed light on the most important geopolitical issues in the world, and the developments are not yet over. As the first anniversary of Israel’s war of aggression against Hamas and the civilians in Palestine approached on 7th October and the NATO-Russian confrontation continued, the rising temperatures of the planet have generated another opportunity for global superpowers to fight over—the Arctic.
Situated at the North Pole, the region is suffering from global warming the most, and at alarming rates. However, not only has the region dominated discourses concerning global warming and climate change, but it is also the next big opportunity for countries like Russia, the US, and China to cement themselves as global leaders.
The scramble began with Russia’s silent military expansion along its Arctic coastline in 2005, which created concerns for NATO and its allies, particularly those sharing the Arctic coastline with Russia. This left them no option but to take steps to strengthen their position in the region, notwithstanding China’s policies aimed at global dominance. The Arctic is a region to look forward to. This article shall explore the economic, military, and environmental implications of Russia’s expansion in the area.
Economic Advantage for Russia
The Arctic is rich in natural resources like natural gas, oil, and minerals. These natural resources also make up a huge chunk of Russia’s exports. In 2021, Russia exported an estimated 4.7 million bpd (barrels per day) of crude oil to countries around the world, with most of its exports and crude oil output making up 14% of the global oil output. Most of Russia’s crude oil production happens in Siberia, and the Federation needs more production fields.
The Arctic is just the right region for Russia to get oil from, as the Federation shares a vast coastline with the Arctic and has the resources to exploit it. Notwithstanding, Russia already gets a good chunk of its oil and gas from the area, which makes up 10% of Russia’s economic input, and over 35,700 billion cubic meters of natural gas remain untapped. Russia not only plans to capture these resources first but also deprives other Western countries of benefiting from this untouched golden economic opportunity.
To accomplish its objectives, Russia is seeking local and foreign investors. In 2019, it announced a trillion-ruble tax cut worth $40 billion to incentivize economic activities in the Arctic after investors showed trust in oil projects led by Russia’s state-owned oil production company, Rosneft. Rosneft is also the biggest oil-producing company in Russia, followed by a private company, LUKOIL. The Federation introduced initiatives to explore and exploit the Arctic in 2020, including the “Energy Strategy to 2035,” which sheds light on the Russian focus on oil and gas extraction.
However, central to this goal is the Northern Sea Route (NSR), through which the extracted natural resources would be exported to other countries. Presently, Russia relies on its extensive pipeline capacity, which transfers Russian crude oil to countries in Europe and Asia. One of the world’s largest and longest pipelines, the Druzhba pipeline system carries crude oil from the eastern part of European Russia to countries like Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Hungary, Germany, and the Czech Republic.
The NSR, therefore, is another mechanism, and possibly the most important one, to Russia’s hydrocarbon export economy. In 2019, the volume of traffic shipped by nuclear icebreakers on the NSR reached 30.28 million tons. If Russia invests more in the NSR infrastructure and technological and research initiatives, it can increase the shipping traffic to 80 million tons by 2024. The plan to develop the NSR was announced in August. Putin has affirmed his plan to include at least 13 heavy-duty icebreakers in Russia’s Arctic fleet, nine of which will be nuclear-powered.
China in the Arctic
The Chinese also aim to exploit the Arctic. In 2010, as part of the Belt and Road initiative, the Chinese launched one of the largest LNG projects in the world, the Yamal LNG Project, and Russia has a 20% stake in it. The field’s proven and probable reserves are estimated at 926 billion cubic meters.
Another extension of the Belt and Road initiative is the Polar Silk Route, which aims to establish new shipping routes through the Arctic, much like NSR. China is also keen on minerals to fuel its manufacturing and technology industries. In 2023, China poured investments into titanium mining in Komi, a republic of Russia.
Hurdles for Russia
In 2023, Putin initiated another LNG project, LNG 2, in North Coast CIS, the Kara Sea i.e. Russia’s Far North. However, western sanctions have had a considerable impact on Russian ambitions in the Arctic. The US has been targeting potential investors of the LNG 2 project and making sure Russia struggles to attract consumers and collect enough investments.
The EU and US sanctions target Russia’s petroleum sector, which will slow down natural resource development substantially. This is expected because while Russia has survived thanks to exports, its economic growth has been slow since 2014, with the growth only limited to 0.3%, every year. The reason? Western financial sanctions reduced the inflow of international investments in Russia. This is also the reason why the Sino-Russian cooperation is increasing.
Moreover, the Arctic is a difficult region. It is dark, surprising, and majorly untouched. Resistant and sustainable infrastructure is required to succeed, which is going to be more difficult in the coming years as the region becomes more vulnerable to increasing global warming, leading to more ice-melting and damage to infrastructure. The hindrances although are the same for every country trying to tap into the Arctic’s treasures.
Military and Security Implications
Russia has been upscaling its military operations in the Arctic. In recent years, more airbases have come to light, notwithstanding the military drills that signal increasing military presence in the region. The country has three times more Arctic bases than NATO. In the center of the Russian Arctic is the Temp Naval base falling on the country’s NSR, comprising radar units, the Pantsir-SA short-range SAM system, and a Bastion-P coastal defense system.
Other bases include Nagurskoye in Franz Josef Island, Rogachevo in Novaya Zemlya, the Wrangel Island Base, Alakurtti (80th Brigade Base) and Sputnik Base (200th Brigade Base) in Murmansk Oblast, the Tiksi North Base, Cape Schmidt Base in Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, etc. The Northern Fleet (NF) in Severomorsk, Murmansk Oblast is an important strategic association for Russia, overseeing the federation’s defense, communications, and economic activities in the Arctic.
In 2022, the annual Umka exercises received attention as Russian nuclear-powered submarines fired cruise missiles in the Chuckchi Sea in the Arctic, which separates Russia from the US state of Alaska. Russia is also increasing its submarines. As of 2024, it has 16 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. In 2023, the Federation also tested hypersonic missiles capable of evading American defenses. This is concerning for NATO, which is far behind Russia in terms of military presence in the region.
Although countries like Norway, and Sweden have upscaled their military activities in response to Russia, they’re incomparable to the latter’s military infrastructure in the area, and the vision for the Arctic. The US has also refreshed its Defense Arctic Strategy to catch up with the slipping Arctic.
However, Russia has not had much success against the NATO forces in the Arctic amidst the Russia-Ukraine War. Isolated by its Arctic neighbors after it invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russia has taken blows at the hands of Ukraine’s long-range drones in the Arctic. NATO also conducted its largest military exercise, Exercise Steadfast Defender, involving 90,000 troops to intimidate Russia, and to much success.
Environmental Impact
Climate change and global warming opened the gates for the industrialization of the Arctic, and the same will cause further deterioration of the Arctic environment. Russia is actively seeking industrialization in the Arctic, and its negative effects have started showing. Yakutia, the largest republic of the Russian Federation, has approved a development for the mining industry that covers two of the Russian Arctic areas, Ust-Yansky and Verkhoyansky.
This plan aims to increase Yakutia’s and Russia’s gold and silver outputs exponentially and accumulate metals like zinc, lead, tungsten, and rare earth elements. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug has also commenced mining and drilling in search of gold and silver in the region. Hydrocarbon exploration is also gaining more momentum with Gazpromneft-Noyabrskneftegaz announcing the commencement of hydrocarbon production at the Novoye field in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region.
Following high-end industrial activities in the Arctic, oil spills are reported in the region. In August alone, three oil spills were reported in the region, one in the Solombalka River in Arkhangelsk, and two in Kola Bay, on August 5, and August 11 respectively.
Conclusion
Climate change has created opportunities for superpowers to fight for their position at the top, for better or worse. The melting of the Arctic, while saddening for those who care about climate change, is another trophy for countries like Russia, the US, China, and their allies to secure. While Russia seems to be winning the Arctic race, it would be a mistake to undermine the US’s anticipation of its share in the Arctic. The next decade will indeed determine who gets to rule the Arctic.
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Noorulain Shaikh graduated with an LLB (Hons.) degree from the University of London. She is keen on geographical, sociopolitical, and legal aspects of world affairs. She is a published author of articles concerning international law and regional policy affairs.