Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States of America has been enjoying the status of global power in a unipolar world. However, the rise of China in recent decades has been posing a major challenge to the hegemony of the United States, as China has become the world’s second-largest economy. According to some reports, in the next 20-30 years, it will overtake the US as the number one economy. The question that arises here is, will this rise be peaceful? Or will both powers be entangled in a conflict? The answer lies in the realist school of thought.
According to the father of offensive realism and eminent political scientist John Mearsheimer, “The rise of China will not be peaceful at all.” The realists are continuously trying to make the United States aware of the potential “China Threat,” that may disrupt the balance of power that currently exists. So, if the realists’ predictions come true, the world will witness a major geopolitical shift in the global landscape. The existing world order is based on Western values, and the incompatibility of China with the Western value system will shape the future of the world in a completely different way.
This study attempts to examine this global shift through the lens of realism, particularly offensive realism. Moreover, after reviewing empirical evidence, it will outline the possible implications of this shift for the world in economic, ideological, military, and political terms.
Sino-US Great Power Conflict Under Realism
According to the lens of realism, power is the most important factor in international relations. The primary goal of states is to increase their power, and they do this at the expense of others. Moreover, their ultimate aim is not only to increase their relative power but also to strive to become regional hegemons to ensure survival.
Up until now, the United States of America is the only global hegemon in the world. The concerning issue is, that as China is now increasing its economic and military might, it may dominate the East Asian region and become a regional hegemon, which would be a great threat to the United States interests over there. Other than that, China will be able to interfere in the American region and might create an alliance with North and South American states against the US, just as America is interfering all over the globe because it is regionally secure. Hence, the US will go to any length to prevent China from achieving regional hegemony. Realists and experts in the field of political science assert that the rise of China is one of the key foreign policy issues facing the US, and the nation needs to focus its attention on countering this threat. If China keeps on rising at this pace, it will give rise to intense security competition.
Offensive Realism
The theory of offensive realism has five key assumptions about the nature of the international system. Its proponents explain the potential future conflict and great power politics that may erupt between the United States and China by considering these assumptions.
Five Key Assumptions:
- The international system is anarchic, and there is no governing body to check the behavior of states. This is the reason states behave in ways that best suit their interests.
- All states have some sort of offensive military capability.
- They can use this capability at any time because no one is aware of the true intentions of a sovereign nation.
- Survival and national security are the principal goals of states.
- States are rational actors; they act strategically in pursuit of their goals.
Another argument that realists present in support of their theory is that the US, being the sole regional and global hegemon, has acted according to the dictates of offensive realism for most of its history. China will likely imitate the former if it continues down this path of ever-increasing economic and military might. It will do so because such domination offers the best way to survive under international anarchy.
Now, realists are very clear about their stance that the fear of a rising China will likely push both countries into intense security competition in the future. To further augment their argument, they explain it with the help of the “Thucydides’ Trap.”
Thucydides’ Trap
The historian Thucydides himself explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” In his analysis of this phenomenon, Graham Allison declared that over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America, the seventeenth case looks grim.
After presenting this scenario, realists also propose some strategies to deal with this rising challenge, and for them the most optimal strategy is containment. This implies that the United States would need to contain China by allying with China’s neighbors, as they, too, cannot tolerate China’s growing power and will do whatever to prevent China from achieving regional hegemony. Moreover, China is involved in many territorial disputes with its neighbors, and they would join an American-led coalition to contain the Asian giant. In the present era, we are seeing the manifestation of this idea in the form of the “QUAD,” and this coalition might expand in the coming years. In an interview, John Mearsheimer discussed the possibility of bringing Russia onto the side of the US to contain China, but he also mentioned that America pushed Russia foolishly into the arms of China by interfering in the Ukrainian crisis.
The realist approach has two main counterarguments in its assumptions about future US-China relations. The first argument is that of economic interdependence presented by liberalism. Its proponents assert that as the US and China are each other’s largest trade partners, they can’t enter into any conflict because this move will hurt their economies. Their trade status is one of mutual benefit. However, realists reject this argument and provide the example of World War I when European states were economically dependent on each other. According to realists, prosperity is subordinate to survival. Despite European interdependence, a deadly war broke out, from which it took years for their economies to recover. Another example is that of Taiwan. China has announced that if Taiwan declares its independence, it will invade Taiwan without considering the economic consequences it will have to face.
The second counterargument is that of nuclearization—as both states possess nuclear weapons, they will mitigate security competition, create deterrence, and prevent war. Nonetheless, Mearsheimer argues that, despite having possession of nuclear weapons during the Cold War, there was intense security competition between the US and the USSR. Hence, realists are firm in their stance and have rejected these counterarguments. After discussing the realists’ perspective, the next section of this study will look into the rising power of China and its consequences for the globe.
Manifestation of China’s Rise
The People’s Republic of China came into existence on October 1, 1949, under the leadership of Mao Zedong. In the first three decades of its creation, China suffered economically. It was only after Deng Xiaoping opened the Chinese economy to the world in 1978 that the state started rising economically. In less than two decades, China became an economic giant and since the turn of the 21st century, it has instilled fear in the hearts of other economic powers. The realization of this fear came in 2010 when China gained economic weight and replaced Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, with the United States retaining the top slot.
According to the World Bank, “Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged over 9% a year, and more than 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty.” China’s current GDP is 18.5 trillion dollars, whereas it was only 149.5 billion dollars in 1978, and the current GDP of the United States is 28.7 trillion dollars. Based on purchasing power parity, China’s share of world GDP is 18.%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), surpassing the US at 15.4%.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) vs. Build Back Better World (B3W)
There is no doubt that China has come far in terms of economics. Moreover, the state has been projecting its economic power globally through different economic projects, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which was launched in 2013. The network of Chinese development projects has expanded all over the globe. China has provided a trillion dollars for global infrastructure under the BRI. To counter China’s growing economic rise through BRI, the United States and G7, in 2021, launched an alternative, the Build Back Better World project (B3W). However, it appears to have died a natural death after the ravaging impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict over European economies.
It is pertinent to mention that, China is not only increasing its economic might but political and military strength as well. This is because when a state is economically strong, it can upgrade its military by increasing the defense budget and developing modern weapons. Moreover, its political influence also increases among other states, as economic power often translates into political influence. China’s influence has expanded across much of the region. Due to its “no strings attached” policy, states rely on China for loans and funding of developmental and infrastructural projects. In addition, China is raising its political influence through regional organizations like BRICS and SCO—whose memberships are increasing—with more states willing to become members. At the beginning of 2023, China helped Saudi Arabia and Iran—two arch-rivals—sign a deal to restore their diplomatic ties and end their decade-long enmity. This move challenged the political influence of the United States in the Middle Eastern region.
In terms of military might, China is not lagging either. It has a huge military of nearly 2 million active personnel, compared to the 1.4 million of the United States, according to data gathered in 2022. China possesses the largest navy in the world with 730 military vessels, while the United States has 484 vessels. However, China’s defense budget, at 292 billion dollars, is considerably smaller than that of the United States, which stands at an astounding 877 billion dollars—equivalent to the combined budget of the next ten economies. But China is trying to modernize its military with each passing year.
China is also involved to create artificial islands in the South China Sea and build military bases there. In 2017, it opened its first overseas naval base in Djibouti, which is located at a very important geo-strategic location. The Asian hegemon is building ports and bases near important oil shipping lanes. This is known as the “String of Pearls” strategy. Chinese adversaries are of the view that, through these efforts, China is projecting its military strength.
Implications for the Global Order
At the end of World War II, a bipolar global order emerged. Then, after almost 40 years of a stagnant and cold war between the US and the USSR, it shifted to a unipolar system, with the United States acting as the most powerful state and global policeman. Now, if the realists’ predictions come true and another “Cold War” kind of scenario unfolds between the US and China, the world order will once again witness a shift, this time towards a multi-polar world.
China is promoting multipolarity through the platform of BRICS—made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This bloc is going to challenge the American-led world order. Individually, the BRICS are some of the most exciting and biggest economies on the planet. China is the world’s second-biggest economy, and India is also growing rapidly. This year, the club of five will be joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). On paper, it seems to be a formidable outfit. Together, its members account for nearly half of the world’s population, and their share of GDP is around 20% more than that of the G-7. According to the IMF, “BRICS Plus” has a GDP of 63.2 trillion dollars while the G-7 stands at 52.3 trillion dollars.
What’s significant about the expansion of BRICS is that it challenges the American-led world order. All these countries that are joining in 2024 have some of the most strained relations with the West and its financial order, created in the ashes of World War II. The BRICS have created their alternative to the World Bank and their currency swap lines, in which countries agree to swap different currencies, countering the influence of the IMF, and its currency of choice—the American dollar. An example of this is the currency swap agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and China in November 2023. Thus, this bloc of developing economies might replace the unipolar world order, with China, the strongest economy in the bloc, assuming leadership.
Secondly, if China becomes strong enough, it may try to forcefully reunify Taiwan with the mainland. According to US intelligence, President Xi Jinping wants his armed forces to be ready for an invasion by 2027. Taiwan is a geo-political flashpoint, and an invasion by China could lead to war with the United States. On the island itself, the threat for some is already tangible. Citizens in Taiwan are even taking self-defense workshops, as they don’t see their government compatible enough to counter the potential threat.
Thirdly, there are chances that, in the future, China might form an alliance with the European Union against America because they don’t see each other as adversaries but rather as economic partners. This alliance might also be joined by American neighbors such as Canada and Mexico, as they alone cannot challenge the hegemony of the United States in their region.
Finally, the rise of China will present a great challenge to the Western value system. Chinese ideology is different from that of the West. With the rise of China, the Western values of freedom, liberty, and democracy will lose their significance, and the US will not be able to dictate these values to the world. China presents an alternative political and economic system, and as its influence is growing, other states may prefer the Asian-led world system over the West.
Conclusion
The world has witnessed many such scenarios in which global powers replaced each other. This is an ongoing phenomenon. Henry Kissinger, a well-known American statesman, writes in his book “World Order” that no single order has ever existed in the world. Every state that comes onto the stage of global power, has to be replaced sooner or later. According to the realist school of thought, in the 21st century, this shift will happen between the United States and China, and the world order will once again be reshaped.
If we look at China’s significant rise in just four decades, this seems imminent. Priorities are already changing and non-western states are preferring China over the US. To maintain its hegemony, the United States has to counter China in all domains, particularly in the economic sphere. It is because of this very economic upgrade that China is able to enhance its military might and political influence. In addition, all the other states have to be ready for a global shift and wisely choose sides in their best interests.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Anisa Dawood has a BS in Political Science from LCWU and is currently pursuing an MS Strategic Studies from the Centre for International Peace and Stability, NUST.