“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”
John F Kennedy
So finally, things have gotten where they are. Our country stands to suffer from a strange but unprecedented political malaise, where this sad excuse of a government, all by itself, has put its own nation into a state of self-imposed siege. The government itself, in hiding from its public and in search of protection from its own people, has so far been pretending to govern.
A dubious administration, widely recognized to be as such, domestically as well as internationally, is struggling to sustain itself as a government. Being an illegal government, in power through extraordinary but unconstitutional means, it is now forced to fight for its survival as it finds itself threatened by its own people. As was so incisively said by George Orwell, “All tyrannies rule through force and fraud, but once the fraud is exposed they must rely exclusively on force.”
Having, for some time, suffered because of state-sponsored suppression, violence, and intimidation, the masses now have found the courage to overwhelm the rulers, forcing them to run for cover by the sheer threat of the volume and density of humanity. An extreme illustration of what this government stands for is that they are willing to rule over a state that has no people, no movement, no activity, no education, or any other routine business—just as long as they are in power.
Turning democracy on its head, they have now chosen to barricade themselves behind illegally requisitioned shipping containers to protect themselves from the people of Pakistan. With their political survival at stake and their existence as a government now at risk, they have resorted to extreme steps to keep themselves safe and secure. These steps are all anti-people, illegal, unconstitutional, taken without moral conscience or ethical consideration, and fly in the face of propriety.
It is no wonder that the PTI, the largest political party, has little else to demand political currency other than the rule of law, as their casus bellie, and their political objective. The problem is that the sitting government is so visibly anti-people while the PTI bases its functional goals on such universally common political principles (reversal of the 26th amendment, freeing all political prisoners, and conducting an impartial audit of forms 45 and 47) that their stated demands are totally aligned with the general public’s demands, even though they are not part of the PTI.
This further intimidates this shaky government, which feels that anyone from the public at large demanding anything related to one’s constitutional rights, the restoration of the constitution, and the empowerment of the judiciary is a PTI sympathizer, worker, or member. This makes the people of Pakistan synonymous with PTI—a phenomenon established by the government themselves in a grave and grievous self-inflicted political injury.
It also explains why the government is so hysterical about any public spaces/places, i.e., educational institutions, public transport, hotels, restaurants, roads, internet, mobile phones, etc.—which all have to be shut down to protect the government!!!! The government is now scared of its own people.
24th November Protests
Tomorrow is 24th November 2024, and a day of reckoning since the people in general and PTI in particular have called for nationwide protests and a show of strength at D Chowk, Islamabad. The conflict between the people and the government is one of the dialectic of wills—who will blink first? The government with state apparatus used against its own people or the people whose numbers may overwhelm the state apparatus—we shall see in the days to come. The character of this conflict is defined by the desperation of a government clinging on to power at any cost, with no holds barred – leading to the use of force against people, illegal arrests, and the total blackout of any information.
The people appear to be determined to rid themselves of this aberration and to enforce the establishment of a legitimate government as well as the rule of law. There are no moderate positions or midway points—it’s either one or the other. This makes the character of this conflict an intense activity, whose end-state will more or less be a consequence of the collapse of one or another party. The nature of this conflict makes it “total,” and there will be no partial successes or limited failures.
What Can We Expect?
However, if the conflict leads to negotiations, then if the negotiations are held before the physical confrontation on the 24th, the people will lose out; implied is the backing down by the public—a win for the government. However, if the negotiations are held during the conflict, it may lead to a political arrangement mutually agreed to but one in which this government goes. It will likely lead to fresh elections (likely) or a national government (unlikely). Still, if negotiations are held after the conflict, it implies a total surrender of the sitting government and a clear victory for the people.
If the people do win, then closure to the crisis will only come through the immediate reversal of the 26th amendment, the release of the political prisoners (if not already released as a confidence-building measure), and the establishment of election tribunals, forthwith, through an impartial judiciary to determine the factual election results of February 2024.
The question is, what will happen in the interim period if the sitting government is overthrown? Will there be a caretaker government, and if there is one, who shall decide who are the components of it? Will the parliament remain intact with even a few remaining legitimate members, and would they form some sort of interim functional government? Would the judiciary provide an interim government? What is certain is that if the government somehow does survive this moment, then Pakistan will be saddled with a civil dictatorship and tyranny for time to come, and the people will become totally irrelevant to any political dispensation.
Currently, the government is confident about how it can handle this current crisis, based upon a false picture painted by the intelligence. The bureaucracy, police, and other government institutions have become extensions of the ruling political party. The police are seen conducting rallies and celebrating political personalities while shouting political slogans. The Motorway Police has taken it upon themselves to threaten the people as well as the opposition on behalf of the ruling party.
This false sense of déjà vu is a product of feeding information that is pleasing to the recipient as well as the shut-down of any actual news and views—an administration totally divorced from reality. The people who are busy constructing a feel-good narrative are well rewarded and work hard at ensuring that the government remains in its comfort zone—either through narratives or then by intimidating the people. The fact of the matter, which the people in power are not willing to see, hear, or understand, is that today, the people hold all of them in extreme contempt and utter disgust. The next few hours will reflect ground realities like never before—a dialectic of wills!
“Many of us didn’t choose to become activists. We were activated. We could not stand to sit on the side-lines while our people were brutalized so needlessly. At some point, we choose to accept police violence or we don’t. Where will you stand?”
Cori Bush
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