What Is the International North-South Transport Corridor?
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), once in a dormant phase, is again back into focus, primarily due to the vested interest of India in Iran’s Chabahar Port and the sanctions imposed on Russia followed by the Ukraine crisis. The changing geopolitical dynamics and the latest inclusion of Pakistan in the INSTC are writing a new chapter in the tale of the INSTC.
The 7,200 km long International North-South Transport Corridor is a multimodal transportation project established in 2000 and ratified in 2002 by Iran, Russia, and India. Established as a substitute for the traditional Suez Canal trade route, INSTC connects India to Russia via Iran. The corridor is a combination of rail and road routes coupled with seaports in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea.
So far, apart from founding member states, 10 states have joined INSTC, i.e., Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Oman, and Syria. The International North-South Transport Corridor was initiated to facilitate the cost-effective and time-efficient movement of freight among member states. However, the corridor has never realized its full potential due to administrative issues and geopolitical tensions.
Nevertheless, the changing geopolitical realities are presenting new prospects for collaboration and regional integration. For instance, Russia has joined Iran to circumvent the sanctions imposed by the USA and the Western world as a response to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, due to India’s renewed interest in the project, INSTC has regained momentum. Pakistan’s recent integration into the INSTC opens up potential avenues for regional integration and strategic and economic benefits.
Integration of Pakistan into the INSTC
After receiving an invitation last year at the State of the Union from Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, Pakistan has officially joined the corridor. Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Khalid Jamali, expressed Pakistan’s readiness to join INSTC on June 19, 2024, while addressing the International IT Forum in Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia. Pakistan’s willingness to join INSTC not only presents significant opportunities for Pakistan but also for member countries marked by regional connectivity, strategic partnerships, and economic integration.
Geopolitical Implications and Future Prospects
Since the international world order is in the transition phase, economic interest is the primary building block of the emerging world order. Hence, states prefer economic ties over political and military partnerships. Furthermore, Pakistan struggles to revive its struggling economy; hence, Pakistan can achieve the goal of economic revitalization through participation in the International North-South Transport Corridor.
According to estimations, INSTC is likely to increase trade by 30% among partner states. This could result in substantial trade worth billions of dollars in the case of Pakistan. The corridor also has the potential to cut travel time by 40% and costs by up to 30%. As a result, Pakistan is likely to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in infrastructure and logistics, due to enhanced connectivity. Moreover, Pakistan can diversify its trade channels and gain access to new markets, potentially enhancing export opportunities. Key industries like agriculture, textiles, and manufactured goods can find more profitable markets, thereby creating job opportunities and stimulating economic growth.
The integration into INSTC will also assist Pakistan in the manifestation of its foreign policy objective of balancing relations between major powers. Since former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s tenure, followed by the subsequent interim and current governments, Pakistan has been maintaining an equidistant foreign policy, whereby it aims to maintain friendly relations with all major powers and does not get involved in any bloc politics.
The INSTC provides a forum through which Pakistan can diversify its economic and diplomatic relations and investment ties and reduce the risks associated with over-reliance on any particular actor. The past few years have witnessed improved bilateral relations between Russia and Pakistan. Russia considers cooperation with Pakistan significant within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Additionally, Pakistan’s bid to join BRICS has also been welcomed by Russia.
The unique geographical location and proximity to Iran, India, and the Central Asian states place Pakistan as a key building block within the framework of the North-South Corridor, with the potential to enhance regional connectivity and stability. By leveraging its geostrategic location, Pakistan can play the role of a key actor in developing INSTC as a concrete intra-Asian trading network, countering the Western bloc.
The integration of Pakistan presents a win-win situation for all actors involved. For instance, it can provide landlocked states direct access to the Indian Ocean and South Asian markets, and in return, joint ventures with member states such as Iran, Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan can open a gateway for Pakistani goods into Europe and Central Asia. Moreover, Pakistan can benefit and overcome its energy shortage through energy cooperation with rich energy resource states such as Azerbaijan. Lastly, the potential inclusion of Gwadar Port to facilitate trade among member states is likely to change the pattern of trade in the whole region.
Indian Factor and Way Forward
On one hand, Pakistan’s readiness to join the International North-South Transport Corridor presents promising prospects for the region. On the other hand, the question of strained relations between India and Pakistan and their effects on the effectiveness of INSTC cannot be ignored. There is no doubt about the corridor’s potential to intensify economic and strategic competition between the two archrivals. Therefore, the future and productivity of INSTC highly depend on the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan.
Critics argue that INSTC is a part of India’s tactic to strategically isolate Pakistan through forging ties with Russia, Central Asian states, and, most importantly, Iran. The investment in Chabahar Port by India poses a direct security threat to Pakistan. Therefore, the integration of Pakistan can be seen as a counter-strategy to compete with India and increase its regional influence.
Similarly, India is likely to perceive Pakistan and its participation in INSTC as a potential threat. It can hinder the progress of the North-South Corridor due to its consistent reluctance to engage in cooperation with Pakistan. For instance, India was the only nation to oppose the participation of Pakistan in a virtual dialogue at the BRICS Summit 2022. Furthermore, at the 2023 SCO Seminar, India blocked Pakistan’s attendance, exploiting its position as a chair. Hence, the ground realities pose challenges for the successful integration of Pakistan into the INSTC.
To make INSTC realize its full potential, both states need to normalize their relations, utilizing the corridor to revolutionize economic relations marked by normalizing commerce and trade along the Line of Control (LoC). The confidence-building measures are required to resolve the issues between the two states.
Apart from the Indian factor, ensuring the security of transport routes and infrastructure projects against smuggling and terrorism is necessary, particularly in Balochistan. The terrorism concerns have previously hindered Pakistan’s participation in this regional connectivity project. Hence, enhanced diplomatic and economic ties with Iran and Afghanistan, strengthening regional connectivity, and managing geopolitical risks arising from political instability and regional conflicts are all the strategic measures that Pakistan must undertake for successful integration and the success of the International North-South Transport Corridor.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, Pakistan can position itself as a key actor to enhance regional connectivity and economic integration with successful inclusion into the INSTC. It can serve as a gateway between South Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. As a regional connectivity and transit hub, Pakistan will not only advance its national interests but also contribute to facilitating cultural exchange, boosting trade, and attracting investments, thereby promoting regional stability and integration.
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Tahniyat Mobeen is a graduate of international relations from Kinnaird College for Women. As an aspiring researcher, her primary areas of interest encompass strategic studies, political economy, and foreign policy analysis. With a profound understanding of global affairs, she aims to provide meaningful insights into complex geopolitical issues.