Limited social freedom, pervasive unemployment, economic downturn, alleged involvement in regional tensions, frustrated citizens, increasingly growing anti-West sentiments, and diplomatic isolation are some of the daunting challenges Iran is facing while entering the new era of reformism, ushered in by the President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian. The dawn of reformism began when former president, Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of the Supreme Leader, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, and a true hardliner, died in a helicopter crash with seven others while coming from Azerbaijan.
The newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has revitalized the frustrated citizens during growing regional tensions. He is a reformist, a liberal, a women’s rights activist, former heart surgeon, former health minister, former deputy speaker (2016-2020), a current member of parliament, and the only one who raised concerns regarding Mahsa Amini’s tragic demise. Moreover, he is the only one who pledged to ease the draconian headscarf law and restore friendly relations with the West in his election campaign. Locals are desperately looking to the newly elected reformist president to bring some ease and steer the country during its economic downfall. Critics around the world are eagerly waiting to witness the steps he will take to bring major shifts in the domestic and foreign policies of the country.
To predict future dynamics, let us unveil the manifesto of reformist leaders and the power structure in Iran.
New President of the Islamic Republic of Iran; What Changes Can He Bring?
Reformist leaders are akin to conservatives; however, they are a moderate version and pursue a freer and more democratic society where citizens enjoy freedom of expression, a free market economy, and unrestricted movement of people across the country–irrespective of gender. Amidst disgruntled citizens, a reformist being the president of Iran portrays a ray of hope over the gloomy horizon of the country.
Iran’s president-elect appears to be ushering in a significant transformation in domestic policies, prioritizing women’s social freedom, exerting influence on the Supreme Leader, and addressing economic challenges by curbing rising unemployment. His vision of free female mobility in the country can be witnessed in his concerns about the Mahsa Amini case–a girl who was killed in the custody of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for not properly covering her head while traveling inside Iran. The reformists educate Iranian women to raise their voices against the oppression they face in every field of life.
Reformists pursue a free and liberal democracy in their country, based on democratic codes such as equality, rule of law, justice, and equal economic opportunities, among others. The current president has implicitly pledged to bring democratic principles to Iran via friendly relations with the West. However, power resides with the Supreme Leader who is appointed by 88 members of a clerical panel called the Assembly of Experts. It is he who formulates both domestic and foreign policies.
The president nominally chairs the meeting of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) which is responsible for the formulation of domestic and national security policies for the Islamic Republic of Iran within the general guidelines developed by the Supreme Leader–aligning domestic policies with national security policies–and ensuring the country’s military capability and resources; making sure that they’re able to thwart any internal or external threat.
The commander of the IRGC and two chosen nominees of the Supreme Leader are members of the council who dominate and influence the decisions of the SNSC; the president just leads the council.
In such a context, the president seems to be powerless; all power rests with the Supreme Leader. Therefore, people’s hope of a major shift in national and international affairs in the country has been fading. It is probable that much of the domestic and international policies won’t change and may likely continue, irrespective of who sits on the chair of the president. However, despite being a nominee and essentially powerless, the president can still influence the decisions of the Supreme Leader, as has happened in the past.
In 2015, President Hassan Rouhani inked a nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Locals of Iran expect the same from the new president to bring some ease to domestic and foreign policies by resuming friendly relations with the West.
Moreover, the current president puts the country’s economic downfall over the shoulders of Iran’s tilt towards China and Russia and its complete isolation from the West. It seems the president is willing to end the hostile relations with the West which would be akin to suspending Iran’s alleged activities and support of different groups in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Consequently, regional tensions may gradually decline; however, the Supreme Leader denied the statement of the new president and put the responsibility on the West for suspending the nuclear deal on the pretext of some alleged involvement of Iran in nuclear proliferation.
The Supreme Leader is ideologically hostile to Israel and the West which can be seen from Iran’s alleged support for anti-West groups in the Middle East in the last two decades. In this context, establishing friendly relations with the West will be a mighty task for Masoud Pezeshkian to placate the frustrated public.
If warm relations resume, the West may give Iran hope of lifting international economic sanctions which might pave the way to the state’s economic diversification. Similarly, it would increase oil trading competition in the region as Iran is known for its oil being the cheapest; Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) might enter into a race to gain regional oil hegemony. Resultantly, developing nations such as Pakistan would then have multiple options to import oil from at cheap rates.
Iran’s new president may play a positive role in bringing peace to the region by stopping Israel from committing genocide and illegally occupying Palestinian land henceforth solving the Hamas-Israel conflict. The tension at the Lebanese border might also ease down if Iran seeks liberal and reformist policies.
On the domestic front, discontented people–who are living life under orthodox Islamic laws imposed by the Supreme Leader–are hopeful to see some liberal policies regarding restricted mobility of female workers and laws related to headscarves. It is hoped that the revolutionary guard might show some flexibility regarding the imposition of a strict Islamic code vis-à-vis the hijab and general female freedoms. All this may come true if Masoud Pezeshkian succeeds in influencing the Supreme Leader; otherwise, the old policy will remain. However, people have voted for the newest president with the hope that he might bring some reforms to Iranian society. If the president fails to bring hope to the nation, voter turnout in the future is likely to decline, causing the state to fall into an authoritarian rule.
In addition to the above; addressing hunger, unemployment, gendered dilemmas, and youth affairs at large are some of the other daunting challenges that the new president needs to manage on a priority basis. The provision of moderate policies vis-à-vis women and their employment must also be a top priority of the president. Flexibility in the female dress code will portray a positive image of the country and may ease ongoing tensions among the public and develop an environment of trust between the government and the citizenry. In such an environment, the country may attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and the economic decline might move towards large-scale employment and economic prosperity once more.
The involvement of the country in regional wars has also aggravated the public’s concern. The people consider the Supreme Leader and president responsible for the crippled economy and international sanctions. In this regard, Pezeskhian needs to be careful before taking any step concerning the country’s direct or indirect involvement in regional strains to lessen the public’s disgruntled demeanor. Reformist leaders pursue policies for regional stability not to fuel proxies. In this regard, President Pezeshkian and his agenda of reformism represent a ray of hope to the public.
Above all, the Supreme Leader is exclusively responsible for bringing changes to the domestic and foreign policies till the time the new president succeeds in influencing his behavior. The upcoming days will reveal the true direction of the country. Until then, Pezeshkian’s actions will fall under the direction of the Supreme Leader. He is carrying people’s hope–of a liberal change–on his shoulders. If he fails in doing so, people will not forgive him and his failure might result in decreasing future political participation. He is the only hope of the Iranians.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
He is an English Literature graduate from NUML Islamabad and a Russian Open-Door Scholarship winner for an MPhil degree in Modern Languages. He also works as a freelance columnist.