Amidst voices from all over the world that India is moving towards authoritarianism under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the crippled democracy unexpectedly fought back really well and restricted Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to 240 seats out of a total of 543 seats of Lok Sabha. The narrative of “chaar sau paar” proved to be just a narrative. However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has still formed a government and sworn in Narendra Modi as the PM for the third time on 8th June 2024.
Approximately 85% of federal ministries went into the hands of Modi’s BJP, including foreign affairs and defense ministries. Key ministers of the previous government were still given the same portfolios. But the question remains whether the BJP would pursue the same domestic and foreign policies in the presence of a coalition government as it pursued in its previous tenures. To answer this, let’s critically analyze and discuss the predictions and possibilities of a “Modi 3.0” tenure.
Neighbourhood First Policy
To the oath-taking ceremony, India invited presidents and prime ministers of seven neighboring countries, arranged one-on-one meetings, and discussed strengthening economic collaboration—showing Modi’s “Neighbourhood First” policy. Modi also reiterated his commitment to provide financial and political support to the neighboring states—excluding China and Pakistan. He also committed support to the “security and growth of all in the region” known as the SAGAR vision, showing India’s intention to help the neighboring states.
In addition, India is likely to focus on the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)—an organization of seven countries—to strengthen technological and economic cooperation. It has also invited presidents of some of its member states. Strengthening influence over regional states may gradually transform them into a key player in the geopolitics of the region.
Role of the US
In the same manner, India is likely to resume friendly relations with the US, including a strategic and economic partnership in the Indo-Pacific region. Both states are members of I2U2 and QUAD and virtually support the India Middle-East Economic Corridor (IMEC). The US needs a key player in the region to contain the rise of China and India seems to be helpful, owing to its historically hostile relations with China.
Joe Biden congratulated Modi and hailed the US-India friendship as “growing as we unlock a shared future of unlimited potential.” On the shoulders of the US, India aims to emerge as a regional hegemon and gradually book a prominent place in world politics.
A New Global Order?
Similarly, India may move towards a new global order dominated by the middle powers including India, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and many other states as it previously refused to cut off ties with Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and continued oil trade despite the US’ stern warnings. Through the platform of BRICS—an organization of five countries—India would surely thrive and slowly shift towards the new world order; aiming to launch a global currency against the dollar.
Role of Pakistan
Towards Pakistan, it may use the agenda of “the otherization of the image of Pakistan” to strengthen Hindutva (a vision Modi has in mind to achieve in his life) and increase their vote bank on the pretext of taking surgical strikes and falsely labeling Pakistan a country harboring terrorist groups, as said by Fahd Hamayun, an Assistant Professor of Political Science, and Neubauer Faculty Fellow at Tufts University, USA.
Similarly, pursuing Hindutva may transform the country from a secular state to purely a Hindu state, a violation of the Indian constitution. In the long run, hostile intentions towards Pakistan may give birth to instability in the region. In this world, being a global village, instability in one place leads to disorder in another. Consequently, the flames of aggressiveness shown by India would be felt far and wide.
However, in the presence of a coalition government (National Democratic Alliance) and a strong opposition, Modi may face hardship in pursuing his agenda as done so in the previous tenures.
Role of China
In the same manner, China appears to be a hurdle on its way to becoming not only a regional hegemon but a key player in world politics. China has also increased its patrolling ships in the Indo-Pacific region on the pretext of research ships and is now responsible for 12-15 ships per annum, which used to be 3-4 per annum. India has repeatedly labeled it a spy activity of China.
Keeping in mind China’s suspicious activities in the Indo-Pacific region, India is likely to pursue hostile relations against China with the assistance of the US. Recently, India angered China by congratulating the newly elected president of Taiwan.
Role of the Middle East
Regarding the Middle East, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to resume friendly relations with KSA, Iran, and other Arab states. KSA being a key trade partner and a member of IMEC cannot afford hostile relations with India being its largest labour market and a key exporter of Saudi oil.
Similarly, Iran has also agreed to grant control of the operation of Chabahar Port for the next 10 years; a deal was signed in the previous month. Under the agreement, India will develop and operate the port.
This is the very first attempt of India Port Global Limited (IPGL) to take control of any foreign port, benefitting India to avoid Gwadar port for import/export and to connect with Central Asian and European states via Iran.
The opposition group (India Alliance) led by Rahul Gandhi’s Indian National Congress (INC) is set to give a tough time to the “Modi 3.0” tenure. It won 232 seats including 99 seats won by the INC. Modi may encounter challenges from a strong opposition and its people, who turned against him in the 2024 general elections while pursuing various proposed agendas.
The largest minority, Muslims of India, is the greatest hurdle to promoting Hindutva and Modi’s nationalism in India, as previously proven during his past two terms. Moreover, the growing unemployment rate, higher inflation, and economic disparities may turn Modi’s attention to domestic issues. The current unemployment rate rose to 8.1% as Modi fell short of fulfilling his promise of creating 20 million jobs.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
He is an English Literature graduate from NUML Islamabad and a Russian Open-Door Scholarship winner for an MPhil degree in Modern Languages. He also works as a freelance columnist.