October 7th, 2023: A Global Game Changer?

“I have a presentiment of sorts that the lots are drawn and accounts may have to be settled far sooner than one might imagine in one’s wildest dreams.”

Fyodor Dostoevsk

The October 7 Event

A year has elapsed since Hamas and its allies of the Palestinian resistance burst forth from Gaza and smashed the myth of Israeli omniscience and power to pieces. They surprised and battered the Israeli forces guarding the largest open-air prison in the world. Such a massive attack by the Palestinians was considered unthinkable by 6 October 2023. 365 days later, the reverberations of this event continue and the ripples generated by it are transforming into waves.

Today, one year later, I will try to answer two questions in this article: Was the Palestinian attack of October 7th a necessity and a correct decision? And what is its importance in the global geopolitical picture?

An objective analysis, divorced from emotionalism, is necessary to evaluate the October 7th offensive. At least 41,000 men, women, and children have been butchered by Israel. Estimates suggest that the overall death toll might be in the hundreds of thousands. Many more have been wounded. Many more have been wounded. Gaza has been turned into a giant pile of rubble in the Israel-Hamas war. What gains justify this huge and horrendous cost?

Addressing the Cost and Gains

To answer this question, we must first examine the cost part of the equation. What was the situation in Gaza before October 7th, 2023? According to Dr. Basem Naim, a senior member of Hamas’s political bureau and a former government minister in Gaza, “The people in Gaza, they had one of two choices: either to die because of siege and malnutrition and hunger and lack of medicine and treatment abroad, or to die by a rocket. We have no other choice. If we have to choose, why choose to be the good victims, the peaceful victims? If we have to die, we have to die in dignity. Standing, fighting, fighting back, and standing as dignified martyrs.”

Most people in the post-7 October world have seemed to forget that Gaza had been justly described as the largest open-air prison in the world by Professor Edward Said. October 7th represented the Palestinian decision to follow the maxim, “It is better to burn out than to fade away!”

So much for the costs; let’s discuss the gains now. Palestinian gains have been observed in two separate spheres: internal and geopolitical. By 2023, it was becoming clear that Israel was largely succeeding in stifling the Palestinian national will internally and neutralizing support or even acknowledgment for the Palestinians externally.

A spark was required to reignite the flame of resistance. A victory on the field, even if pyrrhic, was essential to restore the faith in the eventual victory. Every Palestinian knew this. That is why it wasn’t just Hamas’s project. All the Palestinian resistance organizations joined Hamas in the 7 October attack. This unity was essential to the success of the 7 October offensive and its persistence is essential for the ultimate liberation of Palestine.

“In the face of an enemy as powerful as he is cruel, victory is possible only by uniting the whole people.”

General Vo Nguyen Giap

October 7th has united the Palestinian nation like no other event since the Intifada. The rekindling of the Palestinian spirit and national will is a gain of monumental proportions. The insecurity that this Palestinian unity, faith, and discipline have evoked amongst Israelis isn’t a small victory either. It is startling that while the Palestinians are dying in thousands, it is the Israelis, not the Palestinians, who are fleeing the country in droves. The difference between the colonial settler and the original inhabitants is there for the world to see!

Let’s review the military situation as well to evaluate the gains and losses. It must be remembered here that the conflict in Palestine is an asymmetrical and unconventional one. The Palestinians have shown their resilience on the battlefield. For instance, out of the original 21 battalions of Hamas, Israel has managed to destroy only 3 so far. These destroyed and some other damaged battalions are being reconstituted and replenished effectively as well.

On the other hand, according to former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Israel has lost 12 battalions during this asymmetrical war. Apparently, while Israel has been focused on a killing spree of unarmed women and children (to achieve its war aim of a complete genocide in the Gaza Strip), the Palestinians have diverted all their efforts toward combatting and damaging the Israeli military. It is clear which side is a perpetrator of terrorism and which side is fighting a clean war!

David Halberstam, a New York Times reporter, has written about the Vietnamese freedom fighters during the Vietnam War: “The enemy is lean and hungry, experienced in this type of warfare, patient in his campaign, endlessly self-critical, and above all, an enemy who has shown that he is willing to pay the price.” This statement applies to the Palestinians completely as well.

Geopolitics in the War

Before discussing the geopolitical scenario in the post-7 October world, it is apt to share a pearl of wisdom from the famous Pakistani post-colonial thinker, Eqbal Ahmed: “Basic weaknesses and insecurities tend to characterize settler societies until three conditions have been fulfilled:

1. Until the “solution” of the “native problem” has been found and finalized.
2. Until the settler state has decisively established its hegemony over or at least achieved normal relations with its neighbors.
3. Until it has obtained a measure of independence from its metropolitan sponsors by acquiring the ability to sustain itself economically and militarily, because until it has fulfilled the first two conditions, the settler society must remain a garrison state, dependent on foreign military aid and logistical support.”

This maxim is very important in the Israel-Palestine equation. Palestinian resilience and refusal to vacate their land even in the face of horrible Israeli atrocities have ensured that the only “solution” to the “native problem” for Israel is the Hitlerian “Final Solution.” But unlike Hitler, Netanyahu and Israel do not yet have the demographic strength and numbers to implement this solution. So, Israel focused more on point number 2 and achieved significant success via the Abraham Accords.

Just prior to what happened on October 7, rumors were rife that Saudi recognition of Israel was imminent. The October 7 attack and the predictable Israeli genocidal response put a spanner in the works. The Palestinians are apparently well acquainted with the Eqbal Ahmed law of settler colonialism.

The Sponsor of Israel

This brings us to the third point: the metropolitan sponsors of Israel, i.e., the West, especially the USA. In today’s world, an international order created and opportunely amended, by the West is in force. Its primary purpose was, and is, to perpetuate the colonial and neo-colonial dominance of the West over the rest of the world. Israel is a part of the Western world of colonizers and is the youngest settler-colonial state.

In Israel’s spiritual founder Theodore Herzl’s words, Israel is an outpost of Western “civilization” against Eastern “barbarism”! Israel is the largest receiver of US aid by far in all of history. Since October 7th, 2023, the USA has showered Israel with billions of dollars of military and non-military aid. October 7th and its aftermath have shown that without this continuous aid and military backing, Israel clearly can’t survive. In a strategic sense, Israel and the USA should be considered one unit, just like British India and the UK were before 1947.

If we look deeply at the governing dynamics of the Palestine conflict, two things become apparent. One, under the current hegemonic world order dictated by the West, Palestine cannot be liberated. Any serious attempt to enforce even compromise solutions like the two-state solution is vetoed by Israel. The West backs Israel to the hilt in all its policies, however genocidal.

Two, the Palestine question isn’t just limited to Palestine. It is a question of neo-colonialist imperialism versus freedom. Israel has expressed time and again that whenever it subjugates Palestine successfully, it will seek to expand further. Israeli incursions in Lebanon and Syria are testimony to these Israeli ambitions. But this doesn’t stop here as well.

Eqbal Ahmed was spot on when he wrote:

“To anyone who is willing to see, it should be clear that Israel and the United States are together engaged in shaping the future of the region from Pakistan to Morocco; unless they are stopped now, and isolated from each other, the sovereignty and integrity of the entire region will have mortgaged for centuries to come. Thus, the question of Palestine, to which now has been added the question of Lebanon, transcends the question of Palestinians’ right to peace and self-determination, fundamentally important as it is.”

Israel is a cog in the American imperialist machine that is keeping most of the region from Morocco to Pakistan in chains. Regressive and repressive elites backed up by the US are oppressing the people and serving US interests in this region. The slave regimes led by these elites are integral to the US and Israeli goals in this region. And keeping hold of this region is integral to the maintenance of the current hegemonic world order.

The Aftermath of the Attack

Many years ago, Professor Shahid Alam had made an interesting prediction:

“The repressive, pro-American regimes in the Arab world are not sustainable. When these unpopular regimes begin to fall, and are replaced by Islamist governments, it may become difficult for the United States to maintain its presence in the region. Indeed, it is likely that the United States itself or Israel might trigger this outcome with an attack on Iran. In the opinion of some, this is an accident waiting to happen.”

October 7th has accelerated the process of delegitimization and eventual overthrow of puppet regimes in the Islamic world. In the recent revolution in Bangladesh, Palestinian flags were seen everywhere, proudly waved by the Bangladeshis alongside their national flag. Repressive regimes in countries like Egypt and Pakistan are facing the heat and crackdowns on pro-Palestine protests have been seen in these countries.

From the above discussion, it is clear that Palestine’s liberation cannot take place without the liberation of at least some Muslim countries (who would then support Palestine in the same way Iran has done) and the upending of the current world order. Both processes have the potential to augment each other and create a positive feedback loop. There are indications that 7 October and the following genocide have triggered both of these processes.

The current world order is unraveling from Ukraine to Palestine to the South China Sea. The USA, the last bastion of Western power, has started suffering from the fatal disease of “overextension,” which slowly eats up empires. October 7th worsened that overextension as the USA was forced by Israel to divert enormous resources toward it while they were badly needed elsewhere. China has emerged as the main challenger of the USA but wars in Palestine and Ukraine have pulled the USA in their direction, giving China much-needed space. Indeed, China has acted as a “high-benefit, low-cost actor” in the Palestine conflict.

Conclusion

So, in short, what October 7th, 2023 did was reinforce Palestinian national will and faith, augment insecurity and doubts among Israeli settlers, worsen the overextension of the USA, strike a heavy blow at the Western-ordained exploitative neo-colonial world order, and shake the repressive regimes oppressing the people of the Islamic World. Do these results justify the sacrifices offered? I think so. Freedom is never given. It has to be earned with blood. Palestinians are not fighting for their own freedom. They are fighting for the freedom of all of the Islamic world. May they succeed.

I will end this article by dedicating the following verses from the poem “Brave Hearts” by Charles Swain to the brave men, women, and children of Palestine:

Brave hearts bend not so soon to care—

Firm minds uplift the load of fate;

They bear what others shrink to bear,

And boldly any doom await!

They rise above what would oppress

A weaker spirit to the ground;

And, though they feel no jot the less,

Their sorrows scorn to breathe a sound.

Oh! heroes have we still on earth,

Worth all the boasted blood of Rome;

And heroines, whose suffering worth,

Lends grace to many a humble home.

Great hearts endurance cannot bend;

Nor daily care, nor trial, tame;

But these nor ask, nor gain, a friend—

Nor seek, nor ever find, a name!

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