In the north of the African continent lies the Nile River, also referred to as the “Father of African Rivers.” It holds the title of the longest river in the world. The Nile River journeys northward, spanning about 4,132 miles (6,650 kilometers), until it reaches the Mediterranean Sea. The river has two main branches; the main tributaries to the Nile are the White and Blue Nile. The first of which is lengthier and runs northward from its source in the Great Lakes region of Africa, mainly at Lake Victoria in South Sudan, East Africa.
The Blue Nile is named for its pure, blue waters and comes from Lake Tana in Ethiopia. The majority of the Nile’s water volume and fertility are attributed to the Blue Nile, which is shorter but carries more water, particularly during the rainy season. The main Nile River is formed when these two rivers converge close to Khartoum, the capital of Sudan.
The Nile’s Historical Significance and Geopolitical Landscape
The Nile, a legendary waterway, has been the lifeblood of millions for thousands of years, providing essential food, transportation, and water. The river has historically turned the barren North African plains into fertile grounds, making them habitable and sustaining life. The Egyptian civilization is perhaps the most well-known among the first five ancient civilizations, and its very existence can be credited to the Nile. The river provided a source of fishing, transportation, fertile land, and held significance in the religion of the ancient Egyptians.
Though the Nile is often associated with Egypt. However, due to being the longest river in the world, the Nile flows across 11 African states. Namely, in the countries of Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania. This roster makes for a complex geopolitical landscape and water politics.
The Nile Basin countries have varying degrees of dependence and control over the Nile. Historically, Egypt has held power on the river despite not being its country of origin, but rather because of its dependence on the river. As 95% of its population lives within miles of the Nile, and 90% of the country’s water is attributed to it as well. The hydro-politics of the Nile are governed by a few historical and contemporary treaties.
Historical Treaties and Agreements of the Nile
The agreements and treaties of the Nile River took place from 1891 to 1959, which primarily represented the interests of colonial powers, such as those of the United Kingdom, for the supply of cotton from Egyptian farms that fed the textile industries back at home. These colonial powers only vouched for the interests of upstream African countries and largely ignored other nations.
The first of their kind, the 1891 UK-Italy and then the 1902 UK-Ethiopia agreements were early attempts to secure British and Egyptian interests by restricting upstream water usage, with the latter treaty being particularly controversial due to conflicting versions and questions of its validity. Following them, two agreements took place in 1906: a tri-party (UK, France, and Italy) agreement and the UK-Congo agreement, both of which continued the colonial legacy by restricting the Congo and Ethiopian governments’ sovereignty on the river in their territories.
The 1929 UK-Egypt Exchange of Notes proved to be a turning point, as it formally allocated the majority of the river’s water to Egypt and a smaller share to Sudan, for the sole reason of the expansion of British farmlands into Sudan. The 1949 UK-Egypt agreement on the Owen Falls Dam in Uganda further highlighted the colonial powers’ disregard for the sovereignty of riparian nations. In this treaty, Egypt and the UK posed as a united front. Uganda was to approach them with its plans for approval, without which it was not allowed to proceed.
They went one step further and situated a resident engineer at the dam who would advise the Ugandan authorities on the operations of the dam, essentially carrying out the colonizers’ interests. The most controversial and impactful of these was the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Agreement, which replaced the 1929 agreement and allocated the full flow of the Nile between the two countries, completely excluding other riparian states and cementing their historical control over the river’s resources. These colonial and some post-colonial treaties represent selfish interests and a fight over a scarce resource.
The Nile Basin Initiative: A New Era of Cooperation
In the contemporary manifestation, the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was formed to address the historical issues and restrictions tied to colonial-era agreements governing the Nile’s waters. Established in 1999, this initiative includes ten out of the eleven countries bordering the Nile. It aimed to create a new framework for managing the river that balances fairness and sustainability.
The main goal is to encourage a shared vision that promotes economic benefits and peace in the region, moving away from the old mindset where one side’s gain meant the other’s loss. To make this happen, the NBI put together a Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) to set up a permanent legal and institutional framework for the basin. But there’s been a lot of pushback from Egypt and Sudan, who aren’t on board with the CFA; they worry it might undermine their historical water rights outlined in those earlier treaties. This ongoing conflict highlights the ongoing struggle between the upstream countries seeking fairer access and the downstream nations wanting to keep their historical monopoly.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
These power struggles took a drastic turn with the announcement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011. The GERD is the largest dam in Africa and has a budget of $4.2bn. The situation in the Nile Basin has become quite disputed, mainly because of the serious worries expressed by Egypt and Sudan. For Egypt, the GERD feels like an existential threat to its water supply. Given that it’s mostly desert, the Nile is crucial for over 90% of Egypt’s freshwater, and 86% of that water comes from Ethiopia.
While downstream countries have other sources of water. There is fear that if the dam holds back the very water Egypt needs to survive, it could lead to massive economic issues like unemployment and food scarcity, particularly during dry spells. Egypt has spent billions since the turn of the new decade on food imports and was especially confronted with its vulnerability since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out.
Sudan’s views on GERD are that there are potential benefits from the dam’s power generation and flood control, but it is primarily concerned about the safety of GERD due to its proximity to the border. Khartoum has been vocal about needing Ethiopia to share more information to ensure that its own dams and water systems operate safely, especially since that date is currently unavailable.
Both Egypt and Sudan are eager for a legally binding agreement on how the dam’s filling and operation should work. On the flip side, Ethiopia sees the GERD as a game changer, promising billions in exports, economic growth, employment opportunities, and surplus energy as compared to electricity only being available to 55% of its population.
While Egypt’s fear can be attributed to this being the first time in its history that it does not have control over the Nile, the neighbors of Ethiopia expressed their support for GERD. However, the argument that GERD stops the flow of the river is baseless, as the flow of water through turbines is required to generate electricity, which is the main purpose of the dam. And to combat its water scarcity, it is developing the world’s largest artificial river to create new farmland on previously barren land.
This solves the larger part of the hydro-political conflict and gives room for a more diplomatic approach to the governance of the Nile. It requires that Egypt and Sudan let go of a selfish and outdated approach to the governance of the Nile and join hands with the riparian nations to sustain the historical river that is the lifeline of North Africa.
The Nile River serves as a vital resource for millions across Africa, representing both the potential and challenges associated with shared water sources. Its importance, historically and contemporarily, is undeniable, as it has supported ancient civilizations and has become a focus for modern geopolitical conflicts. The complex framework of treaties and agreements, which predominantly benefited colonial powers and their allies, needs to be abandoned. The Nile Basin Initiative signifies progress towards a more just future; however, the opposition from Egypt and Sudan highlights a deep-rooted fear and power struggles. As the Nile continues its course, efforts must continue to find a harmonious path for it, ensuring the river remains a source of life and cooperation, not division and hostility.
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Manhal Zaka Khan is a writer currently interning at Paradigm Shift. She is pursuing a bachelor's degree in social sciences at SZABIST Karachi, majoring in international relations. Her writing interests encompass all areas of the social sciences, as she explores and examines the world through a critical and analytical perspective.