Perhaps the Middle East is going through unprecedented changes that will radically alter the distribution of power both within and outside the area. These alliances, which range from the Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact to the deepening India-Gulf partnerships, Iran’s shift to strategic engagement with China and Russia, and the ongoing Arab-Israeli normalization process, have a significant positive impact on the geopolitics, economics, and security calculations of South Asia.
It substantially changes the bipolar Middle Eastern alliance structure that was primarily characterized by sectarian differences and the US-Iran conflict. According to Amrozius, these new arrangements confuse the upcoming multipolarism, in which governments look for varied alliances based on practical considerations rather than ideological affinities. A few characteristics show how South Asia, a region already struggling with internal conflicts, economic difficulties, and the larger US-China competition, is affected continentally.
Middle Eastern Politics’ Changing Facets: The New Strategic Framework
The Strategic Diversification of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Vision 2030 appears to be a great tool for creating a fundamental paradigm shift in the state’s shortsighted foreign policy, which has historically relied on US security guarantees, in order to shift toward a more diverse partnership strategy. In light of this shift, Riyadh’s recent mutual defense agreement with Pakistan shows that it is willing to try out new security arrangements that will not rely on any significant external power but rather fit within the larger region’s power dynamics.
These alliances will continue to expand beyond defense cooperation to include real economic collaborations, technical connections, and multi-sectoral diplomatic outreach. Furthermore, the Kingdom’s proactive approach to regional dispute resolution, which even allows for a fresh conversation with Iran through Chinese and Iraqi mediation channels, identifies a sophisticated and multifaceted perspective on regional security and strategic issues.
Shifting Away from the West, Iran
Simply put, that would indicate that Iran’s strategic realignment with China and Russia would represent a significant shift from its prior approach of maintaining some kind of relationship with Western countries. Both the JCPOA’s demise and ongoing international sanctions accelerated this. To a certain degree, strengthening relations between Tehran and Beijing and Moscow would provide Iran the technological transfer, diplomatic cover, and economic lifelines it needs on a global scale.
Bilateral interactions will also reflect this shift. The traditional Western presence in the region will undoubtedly be challenged by new geopolitical dynamics brought about by Iran’s integration into the Chinese and Russian domains, which would also change the way other regional states view international collaboration options.
The Separate Paths of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates
As a result, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have raised the bar for small-state diplomacy by combining their financial and geographic advantages with diplomatic acumen to implement a more autonomous foreign policy. In addition to preserving ties beyond traditional divides, both of these nations have emerged as successful mediators in regional disputes.
In light of these changes, the UAE’s impartial stance toward the Iran-Saudi rivalry and Qatar’s facilitation of the Taliban’s international community engagement offer clues about how these Gulf governments are deciding on their foreign policy. In addition to giving South Asian governments greater possibilities for partnerships, this trend toward strategic independence adds new challenges to the computation of regional alignments.
Impact on Pakistan: Balancing Possibilities and Limitations
The Strategic Consequences of the Saudi Defense Pact
An important agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan was the September 2025 Saudi mutual defense pact, which included mutual defense duties in addition to usual arms sales. Due to increased economic pressure, this has made it possible for Islamabad to get some military and financial assistance.
The deal comes as Pakistan is forced to look for new security arrangements apart from its old partners due to its deteriorating economic problems. To a certain degree, it gives Pakistan access to Saudi military technology and training opportunities as well as much-needed financial expenditures through defense, should the need arise.
Economic Aspects: Investment and Remittances
The extent of Pakistan’s economic relations with the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, goes beyond simple agreements on paper. It includes vital connections established through remittances and other business opportunities, which benefit both Pakistan and the Gulf nations. Remittances from Pakistani expats in the Gulf are estimated to be $12 billion a year, and they represent an essential supply of foreign exchange for a struggling economy.
More investment in Pakistan’s industrial, energy, and infrastructure sectors is made possible by the new partnerships. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has promised to invest in Pakistan’s renewable energy sector, while the United Arab Emirates is reportedly aware of the possibility of funding the expansion of Pakistani ports and transportation infrastructure.
The Iran Balancing Act
Iran, Pakistan’s immediate neighbor, must be strategically balanced with the growing connections between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The larger picture is defined by a 900-kilometer shared border with enormous commerce possibilities and mutual interests in the stability of Afghanistan. However, considering that Iran is strengthening its relationships with both China and Russia, Pakistan’s difficulty here would be to maintain its functional relations with Iran while also strengthening its ties with Riyadh.
Sectarian issues within Pakistan and the larger regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran make this balancing effort even more difficult. Pakistan’s capacity to harness the benefits of new Middle Eastern allies while avoiding being embroiled in regional conflicts will be mainly determined by how well it manages these conflicting connections.
Strategic Partnerships Packaging’s Effect on India
Economic Integration Between the Gulf and India
The relationship between the Gulf States and India has evolved from being largely energy-focused to encompassing commerce, investment, defense, and technology collaboration. The development of new frameworks for economic integration that go well beyond the trade of hydrocarbons was sparked by the CEPA between India and the United Arab Emirates and comparable agreements with other Gulf governments.
The most ambitious, the declared India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), would be in the forefront of this emerging connection. With the potential extra benefit of placing India at the substantive center of a nexus of Middle Eastern energy producers with a door into Europe, this connectivity plan aims to create new trading patterns that avoid traditional chokepoints.
Strategic Autonomy and Energy Security
The fact that India’s energy security calculations would be linked to its Gulf partnerships is becoming increasingly evident. India’s list of varied energy sources that increase its strategic autonomy is complemented by long-term LNG contracts with Qatar, crude oil agreements with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and renewable energy partnerships with other Gulf states.
These energy alliances go beyond straightforward buyer-seller agreements to include collaborative ventures, technological transfers, and cooperative agreements on petroleum reserves. India stands to benefit economically once more and reduce its susceptibility to supply interruptions by enhancing the favorable energy terms it receives through its strengthened ties with the Gulf.
Cooperation in Defense and Security
India has been remarkably developing defense partnerships with Gulf governments through technology transfer, joint exercises, and strategic consulting. Establishing Indian military logistics in Oman and the United Arab Emirates and conducting frequent naval exercises in the Arabian Sea demonstrate the strategic depth of these alliances.
The defense ties with these nations are defined by the various objectives of gaining access to advanced military technologies while strengthening India’s capacity to project power over the Indian Ocean region and fostering interoperability with key regional partners. Thus, both strategically and bilaterally, these alliances support India’s broader goals in Indo-Pacific policies.
Impact on Afghanistan: Dependency on Aid and Proxy Influences
The Gulf States’ Mediation in the Taliban Conflict
The relations between Afghanistan and the Middle East were significantly changed in 2021 when the Taliban was reinstated. Because Qatar acts as a mediator between the Taliban and the international community, Doha becomes a crucial participant in Afghanistan’s attempt to reintegrate into the world system. This mediation involves more than just diplomacy; it also involves humanitarian cooperation and aid for financial gain.
Underlying the UAE’s economic collaboration and humanitarianism with the Taliban is a strategy typical of the Gulf states’ adjustment to the new circumstances in Afghanistan. Establishing such bilateral ties would give the Gulf states significant influence over the future of Afghanistan while giving the Taliban much-needed international credibility.
Contestation at the Regional Level and Nearby Hazards
Afghanistan is still vulnerable strategically to competition from other Middle Eastern nations. In this setting, rivalry from proxies within Afghanistan may arise due to Iranian concerns about the Shia policies of the Taliban-majority Afghanistan and Saudi-UAE entrenchment against Iran.
Given Afghanistan’s weak institutions and significant reliance on outside aid, it is therefore likely that the country will eventually become a backdrop for far greater contests among Middle Eastern powers. Afghanistan’s government faces the difficult task of handling these conflicting forces within the country if such an internal political equilibrium is to be preserved.
Greater Consequences for South Asia: Systematic Transformation
Security and Dependency on Energy
Due to uncontrollably rising energy demands, South Asia is becoming more and more dependent on Middle Eastern energy. Such reliance creates risks as well as opportunities. South Asia’s economic growth and energy security are impacted by the new alliances formed in the Middle East, which also have an impact on long-term contracts, energy costs, and supply security.
As Gulf nations build pillars to support their renewable energy policies and aim to increase energy export income through more diverse energy portfolios, new dynamics are emerging during this shift. As these transformations occur, South Asian states need to encourage energy security considerations.
Diasporic Dynamics and Talent Migration
The Gulf countries are home to about 9 million South Asian workers, serving as a vital social and economic bridge between the regions. In South Asia, new alliance structures have a significant impact on domestic economies and social stability by directly influencing labor policy, remittance flows, and diaspora welfare.
South Asian governments must reconsider their labor exports while guaranteeing the safety of their nationals overseas in light of the evolving labor regulations in the Gulf, which are a result of growing economic diversification and changing demographic priorities. The extent of the new Middle Eastern allies’ economic benefits will depend on how effective they are in this area.
Religious and Cultural Connections
The religious and cultural aspects of connections between the Middle East and South Asia complicate political and economic alignments. Iran may be able to influence Shia populations through its overtures, but Saudi Arabia is still seen as having strong soft power in South Asia since it is the guardian of the two most revered Islamic shrines.
Depending on the internal political dynamics of the South Asian administration, these religious links may either facilitate or hinder political contact. Managing these dynamics while upholding secular governance principles presents enormous hurdles for South Asian policymakers.
Possibilities and Risks
Opportunities for prosperity, energy security, and a variety of strategic alternatives for South Asia are presented by recently formed partnerships in the Middle East. Increased funding, energy security initiatives, defense collaboration, and diplomatic clout have all been demanded.
Given the relatively dire possibilities outlined above, it is likely that South Asian governments’ strategic independence will be compromised if they become strategically involved in the Middle Eastern crises and regional rivalries. They are vulnerable to external shocks due to their economic reliance on unstable areas, while internal earthquakes may be exacerbated by sectarian pressures.
Offer possibilities that are less risky in the pursuit of more intricate forms of diplomacy. Strategic autonomy, alliance diversification, and flexibility are essential. Instead of limiting themselves to binary choices, South Asian states should create institutional safeguards to defend their fundamental interests, independent of regional events.
Success in the large new universe of alliances outlined will be facilitated by more attention to domestic political channels, increased development of diplomatic capacity, and increased economic entrepreneurship. States that can successfully negotiate these obstacles will benefit the most from the Middle East’s growth, while those that can’t will become obsolete in the increasingly complex regional order.
Not new partnerships, which clearly present hazards as well as opportunities for South Asia. The key query is whether South Asian nations possess the institutional structure, diplomatic acumen, and political vision necessary to take advantage of opportunities and control hazards. The way South Asia develops in the ensuing decades will be greatly influenced by the response to that question.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Shazmah Fatima is an independent researcher and a final-year student of international relations at Riphah International University. Her research focuses on international relations, global affairs, and governance, with experience in policy research, academic writing, and publication.