The Context of the 2024 Elections
The next French president shall be elected by the two-round system, as is characteristic of the French electoral system, where a candidate has to win the first round in order to be declared the winner. However, if none of the candidates wins the first round, there is an additional round with only the two most-voted contestants. The French parliamentary elections were held on 30th June after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and announced a snap ballot in May.
Even his friends and allies did not expect this decision because the next French elections were to be held in 2027. This particular move by Macron, following the dismal performance of his Renaissance party in the EU parliament elections, reveals that he is willing to take significant gambles since he is still searching for his place in the increasing populist movements on the left and right.
Key Players in the French Election
Notably, the leadership of major parties and their nominees are gearing up for the presidency, the power to implement diverse policies. The current president and candidate of the National Rally is Marine Le Pen, while the Socialist Party has Anne Hidalgo as its candidate. Xavier Bertrand represents The Republicans while the Reconquête party has put forth Eric Zemmour.
Marine Le Pen
Marine Le Pen is an influential figure in French politics as the leader of the National Rally, a party that was a contestant in the last two presidential elections. Marine Le Pen, also known as Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen, is believed to be the mastermind of the nationalist and anti-immigration policies in France. She is likely to continue benefiting from a strong support base, mainly because of her policies prioritizing issues of national identity, security, and sovereignty.
Based on the campaign promises she has made, she is to implement strict immigration policies and has a closed position on economic issues, control of borders, and defense of French identity, which will be to the delight of citizens troubled by the notions of globalization and multiculturalism. This may hold significant political implications for the French position towards Europe, as she has been demanding political changes in the existing policies being applied within the European Union, and in specific sectors, including trade, immigration and defense. This may put a strain on relations between the EU and impact France’s involvement in international relations. Hence, it would create a more nationalist and conservative France.
Anne Hidalgo
Anne Hidalgo is the mayor of Paris, affiliated with the Socialist Party. In recent years, she has gained more recognition based on her active activist program in social issues, ecology, women’s rights, etc. The goals of her campaign include addressing the problems of economic inequality and environmental protection, as well as the pursuit of economic development and effective governance.
She may cause alterations in the politics of France internally and respond to various problems like climate change, and social security. She also participates in policy-making in France as a contender in future climate negotiations and environmental treaties. Her liberal policies, aimed at bridging social and environmental injustices, would seemingly advocate her party’s stance.
Xavier Bertrand
Xavier Bertrand is a centrist candidate affiliated with the Republican party. He runs as a strong and pragmatic president with the ability to provide solutions to socio-economic issues. His presidential campaign focuses on the creation of employment, improvements in the public health system, and the development of regions, which make him popular among the voters who are tired of polarization within France.
If he wins, his presidency can devote its efforts to the restoration of the economy, internal reforms in the sphere of health care, and initiatives to eliminate regional disparities within the framework of the French state. In addition, the presidency of Bertrand will have an effect on French foreign policy as a mediator more inclined towards moderate policies within the EU. Reasonable political activity with a balanced European Union position is to be expected from him.
Éric Zemmour
Éric Zemmour has been endorsed by electorate groups that are dissatisfied with the current status, which is considered by some to be multicultural. His candidacy is based on Pétainism, conservatism, and law-and-order while emphasizing fighting immigration – all of which are in line with reasserting traditional French principles. If Éric Zemmour emerges as the winner, then there will be a break from the traditional norms of operation with presidential policies going back to conservative norms.
Such an outcome holds the potential to bring about radical changes in the French policy concerning immigration, cultural integration, and the nation’s security concept. In addition, his decision-making authority may affect the status of France in the international system, either improving or weakening the interactions with particular states and international organizations. In his tenure, Conservative policies with potential international strain are expected.
Who Is Likely to Win?
According to other polls, experts, and political opinion, Marine Le Pen and Anne Hidalgo are leading the surveys, followed by Xavier Bertrand, and Éric Zemmour. Nonetheless, the race is still considered to be highly competitive and very much open, with no clear polls on who might be the winner.
Marine Le Pen is an influential figure in French politics as the leader of the National Rally (RN). Le Pen has been seen as a force to be reckoned with, especially given the consequences of her presidency on Muslims in France. Some of her proposed policies, such as her desire to ban wearing any religious symbols or clothing in public places and the restriction of halal practices, have triggered apprehensions about the escalation of the plight of Muslims in France if she assumes the presidency.
Having a clear policy on immigration and Islam, Le Pen might have a profound influence on social and cultural life in France that would entail social tensions and pressure for religious and cultural communities in the country. On the other hand, there is Anne Hidalgo, the first female mayor of Paris who is notable for her involvement in the left-wing parties and advocating for the social democrat policies on environment protection. She has been active in issues of gender equity for women and the environment, including pollution and the portrayal of diversity in the society within France.
Le Pen and Hidalgo are genuine contenders for power because they represent two opposing ideologies and have radically different policies, confirming France’s role as one of Europe’s most fragmented political markets. With such a line of campaign, the party that will overtake the other is still unknown and the election results will have a significant impact on domestic policies, foreign activities, as well as world affairs. The result will undoubtedly define France as a player in the EU, its external policy as a trader and a security actor, and its policy towards global issues like climate change, migration, or terrorism.
Problems for the incoming Government
The financial markets are no longer very happy with Macron since the announcement of the election. Their worries initially fell on the type of government that might be brought into power and then the economic policies that both the left and the right stood for. Earlier this month, the spread of the premium interest rate that investors demand to lend to the French government crossed its peak.
The new financial rules for European nations, recently introduced by the European Commission, might be infringed upon by France, which has one of the highest deficits in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, with the New Popular Front and the RN having declared ambitious goals, Brussels may impose serious cuts to the French government’s spending soon.
Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, said to CNN, “The left vs the right: it is not about cutting spending, it is about how much more they wish to raise it. No one is talking about having to make cuts.” Despite having been changed recently by Bardella, Rahman claimed that there might be a clash between the EU capital and the next French government. These spending limits may help deter a possible authoritarian-leaning government from implementing all the promises made during the election campaigns. However, they can act against Macron, which may lead to political instability and pose certain challenges to current and future presidents. Specifically, it remains undetermined whether chaos will ultimately check the rise of the far right.
Significance of the Outcomes
The French elections are not only important for Paris but for the entire world, as France is one of the leading members of the European Union, actively participating in the development of security policies and contributing to the global economy. As war is on the European Union’s border in the east, the French presidential election will not remain confined to the shores of France. The election will decide how France approaches some of the most pressing issues, including the situation in Ukraine, the relationship with NATO, the EU, and international trade and cooperation.
French President Emmanuel Macron participates actively in international discussions on the support of Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia. The election is important as it will identify who is pro-NATO, with Macron being the only candidate who supports the organization. The visions of other candidates regarding France’s position concerning NATO and the possibility of leaving it altogether explain why the election outcome is critical to the world’s security politics.
Conclusion
The French elections scheduled for the upcoming year will occur in a politically and economically turbulent climate. The recent push for early elections has sparked concerns about an extreme political slant in the financial markets and the economic agendas of the left and right. There is a chance that the future government will clash with Brussels because the focus is now on the level of fiscal stimulus rather than budget.
This not only poses difficulties in trying to fulfill the promises made during the election campaigns, but it also carries some risk to political stability and possible negative effects on the affected nation’s economy. The results of the French elections will also have an impact on the political climate and societal fabric of France, particularly if Marine Le Pen manages to secure the presidential seat.
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Tayyaba Rehan is a student at the National Defence University. She is currently pursuing her degree in defense and strategic studies. She has worked with multiple governmental and non-governmental organizations. Her articles have been published in national as well as international publications.