Introduction
China is becoming a major rising power in science and technology and because of its aggression and lack of transparency in its objectives, this rise is causing nervousness globally. Issues in recent years have mostly focused on the military-civil fusion (MCF) approach employed by China to enhance its military capabilities and national security. Concerns have been raised about this all across the world, particularly in the US, where a number of measures have been implemented to limit MCF.
Military-civil fusion is a national strategy of the Chinese government, designated in 2014 to transform the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a “world-class military” by 2049 under Xi Jinping, who directly supervises the strategy’s implementation. Its goals are to exploit dual-use technologies for military applications and to promote innovation in important industries. To further China’s military objectives, the MCF enables the CCP to obtain global citizens, academics, intellectuals, and private industry’s intellectual property, important research, and technological innovation.
The Military-first Approach of the Chinese Communist Party
China’s military-civil fusion strategy is not new. Deng Xiaoping introduced the idea of “defense conversion” in the 1980s when he introduced the Four Modernizations. This involved finding technology spin-offs and releasing defense setup overcapacity for civilian and commercial uses. China started considering civil-military integration in the 1990s, hoping that the partnership would have positive knock-on effects.
Since Mao Zedong, every leader has had a plan in place to force the “commercial” and “civil” parts of Chinese society to back the PLA. Various names have been used for it, such as “military-civil fused development” and “military-civil integration” (CMI). Xi Jinping has elevated the idea of military-civil fusion. China’s perception of the notion has evolved along with the names. However, in all instances, it is the “military” that comes first.
Transforming Vision into National Strategy
MCF is mostly connected to Xi Jinping, despite the fact that Hu Jintao, the then-general secretary, first coined the term “military-civil fusion” at the 17th Party Congress in 2007. As was already mentioned, he declared in 2015 that “aligning civil and defense technology development” will be a top priority for the country. Furthermore, an “all element, multi-domain, and cost-efficient pattern of CMI” was demanded in China’s 2015 white paper on military strategy.
However, Xi did not fully achieve his MCF vision until the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Given that Hu and Xi have actively pushed MCF as a crucial tactic for achieving the Chinese dream, the strong military dream., this points to a change in the government’s promotion from CMI to MCF. MCF has been incorporated into almost every significant strategic program since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, including the Made in China 2025 initiative and the 2017 Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Plan.
Beijing’s 2017 Military-civil Fusion Drive
Beijing established the Central Commission for Integrated Military and Civilian Development in 2017, a strong and new body tasked with overseeing the development and implementation of MCF policy. That same year, China unveiled the 13th Five-Year Special Plan for S&T Millitary-civil Fusion Development in an effort to seize the upper hand in the global battle. It detailed how to put together a coordinated system to do fundamental innovative research and development in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced electronics, quantum, advanced energy, modern manufacturing, forthcoming networks, and new materials.
Post-2017 MCF: Civil, AI, and Foreign Tech Integration
After 2017, MCF seems to be different from past CMI endeavors in a number of significant respects. Its first goal is to include the civilian industrial sector in the PLA’s supply chain in its entirety. Nondefense corporations have been urged to sell straight to the military for the first time. Second, China’s military is explicitly using MCF to gain accessibility to vital 4IR technologies, especially AI. The PLA views MCF as essential for jobs like targeting, navigation, information processing, and command and control because it involves the militarization of AI.
Third, given the need for modern commercial technology, MCF inevitably necessitates the rerouting of foreign technologies to facilitate the advancement of the military. This is because a significant chunk of China’s technologically advanced industrial sector still significantly depends on foreign designs, technological equipment, and manufacturing procedures. The Chinese government regularly pushes private enterprises to buy foreign military technologies.
China’s Military Tech Showcase
China has not held back when it comes to showcasing how technology, which was initially created for civilian use, is improving its military power. It performed a swarming display with 1,108 quadcopters during an air show in 2017. China displayed a similar swarm of fifty-six unmanned boats in May 2018. Exoskeleton suits for usage in the Himalayan border with India were marketed more recently, in 2021, along with many other advancements.
These advancements have caused concern in the United States due to the swift augmentation of the Chinese military. On the other hand, the consequences of MCF are still unclear in India. Indian military leaders have just recently, in 2020, started talking about civil-military integration. India’s IT industry isn’t very advanced and can’t easily replicate the Chinese strategy.
America’s Rising Concerns over MCF
In 2021, China announced the adoption of its 14th Five-Year Plan for 2021–2025, exploring the debut of its development of “disruptive” technologies to close the divide with the US. China prepared itself to confront the US as the US escalated its rhetoric and tactics. As a result, the US government is growingly worried that otherwise harmless technology transfers and business partnerships between the US and Chinese private enterprises may unintentionally assist the Chinese military in becoming a more potent enemy with respect to technological advances.
Algorithms employed in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning—some of the most sophisticated software and hence the toughest to copy—raise special concerns about their potential for theft. Secondly, the US is worried about China utilizing military applications for technology obtained for civilian use. Thirdly, Chinese students attending US institutions and academic partnerships might support organizations that support Chinese military modernization.
Chinese capital has been invested in Western technological startups and enterprises, giving them exposure to and influence over newly developed technologies. Chinese research labs like those founded by Baidu, Huawei, and Tencent in nations like the US, Australia, and India are enhancing Chinese technology that can be utilized for military applications at home.
US Response to the Military-civil Fusion
In order to counter China’s military-civil fusion plan, the US introduced its “ third offset strategy” in 2014, driving a new tech race between them. This approach focused on standoff weapons, precision targeting, stealth capabilities, space-based communications, and navigation. Regulations were modified in 2018 with a focus on Huawei in an effort to prevent China from using Western technologies for military purposes.
In order to preserve its leadership in AI, the US has also taken extra measures. An executive order from 2019 aims to do just that. While the Export Control Act placed more limitations on exports of basic and developing technologies to China, the Foreign Investment Risk Modernization Act increased the power and reach of the US Committee on Foreign Investment.
New regulations were released on six newly discovered or emerging technologies by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) in 2020. Harnessing skill and capital, navigating moral dilemmas, and propelling companies to create dual-purpose technologies are the challenges. With the vast amount of expertise available, it is impossible to predict where the US’s recent efforts will end up.
Future Prospects Amidst Current Challenges
China is starting a multi-year project to modernize the PLA using modern commercial technologies. Xi Jinping’s MCF initiatives may or may not be more successful than past CMI endeavors. However, there are still a number of barriers in the way such as the private sector’s lack of access to sophisticated, large-scale facilities and experimental tools as well as the uncertainty surrounding whether or not private sector businesses will be granted approval to work on more sensitive projects or will only be utilized to supply less sensitive components.
In spite of these uncertainties, the CCP and PLA are unlikely to abandon MCF. Furthermore, if China implements MCF successfully and makes notable military technological advancements, the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region may face a daunting challenge.
Conclusion
China’s MCF strategy has dramatically enhanced its military abilities by uniting civilian and military advancements, causing the US to take countermeasures in order to maintain its military superiority globally. The US now understands that the fight between the two countries is centered on technology. Although the US leads in most areas, in some fields, like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, a clear winner has not yet been established.
The competitive nature of international military and technological dominance has been demonstrated by the possibility of transfer of power as both states are competing in crucial technologies. As China moves toward intelligent warfare, the MCF strategy will be a crucial part of China’s broader strategy to accomplish complete military modernization by 2035 and turn into a world-class military by 2049.
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Kanza Sohail is currently pursuing her bachelor's in international relations at Kinnaird College for Women University. She has completed a significant internship at the Research Society of International Law (RSIL). She has a keen interest in writing on topics related to regional studies, global environmental politics, conflict resolution, and international law.