Japan Elects a New Prime Minister
Amidst the global political turmoil, Japan, on Friday, toyed with history by allowing the voters to choose between the youngest ever and the first woman prime minister. It ultimately chose to do neither and instead voted for its new leader, Shigeru Ishiba, a 67-year-old backbencher for the Liberal Democratic Party, who had lost four prior attempts to become the party’s leader.
Unlike other countries, one party has dominated Japan’s Parliament since 1955. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been empowered since its foundation in 1955, except for a period between 1993-1994 and 2009-2012, marking over 60 years of almost uninterrupted power.
On September 27, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) voted for its new leader, Shigeru Ishiba, to replace the outgoing Kishida Fumio as the prime minister of Japan. A record 9 candidates entered the race for the country’s leadership, making it the most crowded leadership contest in LDP history. The candidate’s election campaign officially began just two weeks before the election day.
How Is the Prime Minister Elected?
The LDP holds these internal elections every three years; while leaders are permitted to serve three terms, Kishida, who has struggled with low support ratings for much of his tenure, stepped down after just one. Each term comprises 3 years which totals up to 9 years.
The candidates must serve LDP lawmakers in the National Diet (Japan’s parliament) and need at least 20 nominations from other LDP lawmakers to qualify. In the first round, candidates are competing for a total of 734 votes. LDP lawmakers (parliament members), currently 367 in number, cast half of these votes. The remaining 367 votes are cast proportionally by party membership, around 1,090,000 LDP members.
A candidate wins outright if they secure more than 50% of the votes. If one person receives a majority of the votes, he/she will be elected as the leader of the party. In the absence of an absolute majority, it’s far more likely that a runoff between the top two will be necessary. This is similar to the French two rounds of voting system. For the second round, the 367 LDP lawmakers in the parliament and one representative of each 47 prefecture again cast their votes, making a total of 414 votes. Now whichever candidate receives the most votes is elected party leader and then will be confirmed as prime minister by the LDP-controlled parliament.
Who were the Frontrunners?
Koizumi Shinjiro
Former environment minister and current chairperson of the Diet’s national security committee, Shinjiro Koizumi, is the most high-profile politician of his generation. Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Jun’ya Koizumi , who at 43 could have been Japan’s youngest-ever prime minister, ran his election campaign on the following policies:
- To accelerate reforms and change what he has called the old-fashioned LDP.
- To carry over the economic policies of outgoing Prime Minister Kashida.
- Calling a snapper election as early as possible.
- Call for scrapping the country’s nuclear reactors
- Supports allowing separate surnames for married couples
- To relax labor market regulations
- To amend Japan’s pacifist constitution to acknowledge the existence of the country’s military.
Koizumi sought to meet his Chinese and South Korean counterparts soon after taking office, to have discussions with North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un and strengthen the US-Japan alliance.
Koizumi, a neoliberal economic reformer, appears to be well-liked among the party members and lawmakers. Over the years, Koizumi has also worked hard but despite the strong support from both lawmakers and party members, some serious flaws in his candidacy couldn’t be overlooked. His cabinet inexperience; the only cabinet experience he has is his 2-year tenure in the environment ministry, and an odd choice of words on climate change which was widely ridiculed, perceived his proof of inexperience.
Takaichi Sanae
Takaichi Sanae, the economic security minister and the main candidate representing the nationalistic right wing of the broadly Conservative Party, is extremely popular among right-wing voters. Takaichi ran her political campaign on the following policies:
- Amendment in the constitution
- Against separate surname legislation
- Against homosexuality
- Supports the imperial family’s male-only succession
- Advocates pro-nuclear energy program
- Advocate of aggressive military-easing
It demonstrates that Taikachi is deeply conservative on social policy, hawkish on security and diplomacy, and in favor of the continuation of Abenomics-style policies, that pursue economic growth through monetary policy and fiscal spending. Takaichi’s connections to the perpetrators involved in the Slush Fund Scandal and her hardline conservative policies might haven’t appealed to the lawmakers causing her to fall behind in the election race.
Shigeru Ishiba
A 67-year-old defense minister, a perennial outsider, who was once seen as unpopular among his Diet colleagues, now rules Japan. Ishiba maintained a strong following within the party’s overall membership due to his reputation as a disciplined, trustworthy, and notable personality. He was serving as the defense minister of Japan before coming into power. The policies that convinced the lawmakers and the party members to vote for Ishiba were:
- To reduce Japan’s reliance on nuclear energy.
- Call for an Asian version of NATO.
- Aiming to put the US-Japan military partnership on an equal footing
- Advocates amending the country’s pacifist constitution.
- Backs legislation that would let married couples maintain distinct surnames, a policy that has caused division within the LDP.
- To accelerate party reforms.
- To handle the aftermath of the recent Slush Fund scandal.
- Giving more weight to the party membership in leadership elections.
- Full exit from deflation, increased investment in sectors of economic expansion, and a rise in real wages.
Conclusion
Despite not being liked by the Conservative lawmakers, the former defense minister vying for the party leadership, defeated Sanae Takaichi in a run-off after none of the nine candidates won a majority in the first round of voting earlier in the day and assumed the office of the prime minister on 27th September, 2024. Irrespective of the outcome, any new PM faces the challenge of rebuilding public trust in the LDP, and confidence in the economy while facing complex security involving China and North Korea, and navigating important relationships with the US and South Korea.
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Ruqayya Yar Muhammad is a fresh graduate of political science from the University of Peshawar and a keen enthusiast of current and international affairs.