Introduction
On October 8th, 2025, a deadly ambush by Tehrik-e-Taliban fighters in the Orakzai district killed 11 Pakistani soldiers. This is among the many attacks Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has carried out on security forces in recent months in their attempt to destabilize the Pakistani government. However, the situation escalated when Pakistan decided to carry out a cross-border operation, which led to the worst wave of fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan since the Taliban-led government took over in 2021. The current situation has opened up pressing questions for Pakistan: What impacts are brought about by the heightened cross-border terrorism, and what will Pakistan’s security policy look like going forward?
Recent Border Clashes
In the wake of the October 8, 2025, clashes mentioned earlier, Pakistan unleashed a series of targeted strikes against alleged TTP hideouts in Afghanistan. In the early hours of October 10th, 2025, Pakistani jets struck various targets near Kabul, including a vehicle, which TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud was allegedly travelling in. Later, positions near Kandahar’s Spin Boldak were also targeted. Ground fighting erupted quickly as skirmishes broke out at various points along the 2,600 km border, including Kurram and Chaman.
These clashes were immediately followed by diplomatic exchanges as the Pakistani government demanded that the Taliban government contain “militants who had stepped up attacks in Pakistan.” The Afghan Taliban, however, rejected accusations of giving sanctuary to the fighters and protested against the air raids by Pakistan as “unprecedented, violent, and provocative.”
This wave of clashes also resulted in Pakistan immediately closing the Torkham and Chaman crossings as well as various minor gates, “bringing trade to a halt.” This was especially concerning for Afghanistan, since Pakistan remains its primary transit route for essential food supplies and goods. After days of clashes and retaliatory strikes, an initial 48-hour ceasefire was mediated by Qatar and Turkey. Islamabad, however, insisted that the truce was “temporary” and that it would meet again to ensure its sustainability.
Diverging State Perspectives
The narratives coming out of both countries in the wake of these clashes are starkly different. Kabul has overtly rejected the charge of sheltering any TTP militants. The Afghan defense ministry has, however, “declined to answer” questions about TTP figures like Noor Wali Mehsud, attracting criticism from experts. After the ceasefire, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid reiterated that Afghanistan would not support “any hostile actions against the Government of Pakistan.”
In contrast to Kabul’s perspective, Pakistan adopted a hard-edged stance, insisting that Afghan soil must not be used as a launchpad for attacks on Pakistani territory. Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Chaudhry, laid out this stance in a televised briefing, stating that ”we are doing and will continue to do whatever is necessary” to protect Pakistan’s security interests. He also warned that Pakistan’s “patience is running out.” The political leadership echoed the same narrative, with the Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stressing that both countries were to respect each other’s sovereignty, given that cross-border terrorism ceased immediately.
This is a stark contrast to the Afghan perspective, which vehemently denies any involvement in conflict or links to the issue of harboring terrorists. Pakistan, in recent history, has signalled a clear shift in expectations, shifting away from the role of an ally towards one based on territorial accountability. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently gave the Taliban an ultimatum “to choose one of two paths,” cooperation or diplomatic cut-off, as Pakistan would not cooperate or engage in joint security decisions.
Historical Cycles of Cross-border Conflict
This recent wave of hostility, however, reignites a familiar pattern that has resurfaced in Pak-Afghan relations since the Taliban takeover in 2021. Pakistan has observed a sharp rise in TTP activity on its soil. The government authorities argue that the Afghan government has given freer movement to militants and eased their access to weapons, which has left Pakistan’s northwest more vulnerable to TTP attacks. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), violence in the country has seen a 74 percent increase since July 2025, with August 2025 being the deadliest month since February 2014.
This stark surge in violence has compounded an already bleak security paradigm, as armed groups have been increasingly targeting both civilians and security personnel. Most of the attacks have been concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the two provinces bordering Afghanistan. Each wave of assaults has been followed by Pakistan charging Afghan-based TTP fighters, demanding action and elimination of terrorist hideouts. Afghanistan has repeatedly rebuffed these allegations as baseless or deflected blame.
When Afghanistan has failed to comply, Pakistan has typically taken unilateral action. For example, in May 2023, Pakistan closed crossings and bombed Afghan border posts after a string of militant attacks. The October 2025 strikes, however, represent the most severe instance of this recurring pattern. In each case, the pattern has repeated, producing a cycle of violence that continues to reignite because of a lack of sustained cooperation between the states.
The Way Forward
The ceasefire is still widely seen as fragile, with Pakistani political and military leadership expressing concerns over how it would hold without concrete action and mutual cooperation. Pakistan has repeatedly asserted its right to defend itself, which helps understand why past truces between the countries have continued to fall apart.
Another important consideration for Pakistan going forward is that a continued hard line towards Afghanistan may push the Taliban regime closer to India. During the recent crisis, the Taliban foreign minister paid a high-profile visit to India, with New Delhi pledging to reopen its embassy in Kabul. Enhanced diplomatic ties between India and Afghanistan could reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan as a strategic ally, complicating Pakistan’s border stability further.
The current standoff has, hence, brought forward critical fault lines in Pak-Afghan relations, revealing repetitive patterns of violence and cross-border terrorism that remain unaddressed. The glaring political question is how cross-border terrorism can be curbed without plunging into conflict. Ultimately, the situation has also raised questions about Pakistan’s evolving security policy, which is maneuvering towards sovereignty-centered, conditional ties. These changes are likely to redefine what regional dynamics look like going forward.
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