Background
The Russia-Ukraine conflict started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and sparked international condemnation. However, the situation got worse when a large-scale invasion was launched by Russia on 24th February 2022. This has led to mass casualties and massive destruction, leaving millions of Ukrainians displaced. In this war, the US, NATO, and the EU have provided undivided support to Ukraine through diplomatic efforts, imposing sanctions on Russia, and providing military aid. The issue has been a major geopolitical crisis without any obvious resolution.
Situation After Trump’s Re-election
Donald Trump’s stance has been significantly clear since day one. He has been constantly asserting that the conflict would not have occurred if he were in office, although he was the president when fighting grew in Eastern Ukraine between the separatists backed by Moscow and Kyiv’s forces. Since he returned to office, he has been criticizing the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, saying that he should have cracked a deal with Putin to put an end to this conflict.
Back in 2016, Putin and Trump’s relationship was scrutinized. Trump sided with Putin publicly over the US intelligence officials on whether Russia helped Trump in the 2016 elections or not. The strong relations between Putin and Trump can be determined by the fact that the latter praised Putin and complimented him for his invasion of Ukraine.
In his 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition to this, he also criticized Joe Biden’s administration for spending billions of US taxpayer money on economic and military aid for Ukraine to fight against Russia. It is the utmost priority of Trump’s administration to put an end to this war. To achieve this goal, Trump preferred a diplomatic engagement rather than a prolonged military one. There are a number of strategies that can be used by Trump, such as diplomatic negotiations, reduction in US aid to Ukraine, increased European responsibility, and economic or political pressure.
Recently, President Trump warned Putin that if he fails to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the US won’t back out of imposing high tariffs and sanctions on Russia. He also highlighted on his social media “Truth Social” that he is doing a “very big favor” to Russia and its president by offering to settle the war. In response to the threat of harsher sanctions, the Kremlin has said that it is “ready for an equal dialogue, a mutually respectful dialogue.”
A few days ago, Trump and his administration were eager to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. However, the situation took a turn when former state envoy Steve Witkoff visited Russia to conduct a prisoner exchange. After his visit, Trump immediately announced that instant negotiations were going to be held between both sides. Zelensky was not informed about this beforehand, and he also rejected a proposal by the US according to which Ukraine had to give away its rights to half of the critical minerals in exchange for military support from the US.
On 18th February 2025, a meeting was conducted in Riyadh between US and Russian negotiators to discuss ending the war and reestablishing a diplomatic and economic link between both superpowers. Ukraine was excluded from the talks, as a result of which Zelensky canceled his trip to Saudi Arabia. Apart from this, Trump conducted a press conference blaming Ukraine for starting the war. He further stated that Zelensky was not the people’s choice as he has a popularity index of 4 percent, which is negated by the surveys that declare that his popularity is above 50 percent.
On the other hand, Trump has also confirmed that the US has been pressuring Ukraine to conduct new presidential elections before the war comes to an end. After this, things got personal as Zelensky said that “Trump was living in a Russian-created disinformation space.” To this, Trump replied on his social media platform that Zelensky is a “dictator without elections.” In short, Ukrainians fear that Ukraine policy by Trump might be unduly submissive to Russia and would seek a speedy solution at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty seems to be taking shape.
The Possible Scenarios
There are four possible developments that are likely to change the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Trump’s administration formulated a plan that would reduce direct US involvement in the conflict, diminishing European security. An 800-mile demilitarized buffer zone can be established along the frontlines in Ukraine while Ukraine has to shelve its plan of joining NATO. In addition to this, the US would still provide weapons to Ukraine to deter the incursions by Russia, but it wouldn’t send any Western military for its assistance.
- Since the conflict started, European leaders have shown unwavering support for Ukraine. But will this support continue if the US steps back from its support for Ukraine and European security? If the US withdraws, it will place an enduring financial burden on Europe if it wants to continue supporting Ukraine. This will eventually help Putin in achieving his dream of disintegrating the European bloc.
- The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has made two offers to Trump to broker a deal. The first offer is to reduce costs for the US by replacing some American units with Ukrainian troops. The second offer is to provide some Ukrainian resources to the US and other Western allies in order to present Ukraine as a key contributor to European security.
- Russia is occupying certain areas of Eastern Europe, and its recent seizure of Vuhledar (a significant city in Ukraine) has cleared a path for deeper control. Moreover, Moscow has been preparing for an offensive attack on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, where the forces are struggling to keep the occupied territory intact.
Putin’s Stance on Negotiations
Putin has asserted that in order to end this war, Ukraine needs to accept the fact that Russia would gain 20 percent of Ukraine’s land. While discussing the terms on which Russia would start negotiations, two major conditions were mentioned, i.e., Ukraine has to drop its ambitions of joining NATO and withdraw its troops from four Ukrainian regions claimed and controlled by Russia. Similarly, Trump also has certain reservations regarding Ukraine’s eagerness to join NATO. However, Zelensky and Kyiv are quite reluctant to hand over their territory to Russia.
Additionally, President Zelensky mentioned to the World Economic Forum, while considering the negotiation deals, that any peacekeeping force in Ukraine should have US troops and approximately 200,000 peacekeepers to pose a realistic deterrent to Russia. Even though Ukrainians have supported the tough talk by Trump, they are still of the view that action needs to be taken instead of making big claims.
It has not been specified when and where economic penalties might be imposed. Ever since 2022, Russian imports to the US have plunged and heavy restrictions have been imposed. Currently, the majority of Russian exports to the US are platinum and phosphate-based fertilizers. If new restrictions or sanctions are to be imposed on these items, there would be a significant negative impact on Russia’s economy.
Trump’s former envoy Kurt Volker said in a BBC interview that he was “skeptical that there is going to be a deal per se,” also adding that the first priority of the US could be to stop the fight for now and to deter further attacks by Putin in the future. Trump’s point of view does matter, but after 11 years of war with Russia and a long history of poor peace deals, Ukrainians are not very hopeful.
Conclusion
It seems that soon Vladimir Putin will be able to get closer to the objective he wanted to achieve when he launched a full-scale war in 2022 and this possibility has been created by a major difference in the support Ukraine was getting from its Western allies. As Donald Trump is known as a highly transactional politician regarding foreign policy, his position on the Russia-Ukraine war is not predestined. It is assumed that Trump would favor Russia and Ukraine along with other European powers, so they would try to cut a deal with him, and he would most probably agree in order to be the “big man of history.” A plan that would reduce US military presence in Europe and simultaneously claim publicly that he won peace would be a win-win situation for the newly elected president.
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Areej Ajmal is a lecturer at the University of Lahore. She possesses a robust academic background in political science from Punjab University, Lahore. Her expertise encompasses democratization, global and gender politics.