Mr Sanan Hassan Lashari is a political analyst and journalist at Daily Minute Mirror News. Currently, he's also pursuing an MPhil in International Relations from Punjab University.
According to Donald Trump, if Moscow invades Ukraine—a NATO ally of the US that has not yet paid its share of the defense budget—he is going to endorse it. This encapsulates Trump’s policy towards Ukraine and the ensuing war. Various American leaders disregarded this claim as absurd and mocked it for being both appalling and unhinged.
When Donald Trump entered office in 2016, he warned the allies that the United States would not support any nation that did not allocate two percent of its defense expenditure to the military alliance. This statement was made as the US Senate deliberated on legislation regarding military and financial assistance for Ukraine. In my perspective, Donald Trump’s remarks concerning NATO are merely soothing music to Putin’s ears. For this reason, analysts are speculating about what might happen to Ukraine if Trump wins the subsequent elections.
The NATO alliance was founded during the Cold War to contain the USSR; to this day, it continues to provide substantial resistance against Russia. NATO President Jens Stoltenberg asserts how the Western military alliance would meet the threat head-on with full resistance and claims that the former American president’s remarks are likely to put NATO soldiers and member nations in jeopardy. A few weeks prior, Trump issued a bold statement:
“I will have that war settled in one day, twenty-four hours”
Donald Trump
Trump may use his executive authority to halt or slow down American aid to Ukraine, even if the US Congress passed a bill granting the country military and economic help for a longer period. Trump’s policy for Ukraine is incredibly unpredictable and chaotic. When he first came to office, he backed Russian claims to Crimea and Donbas, dismissed the American ambassador in Ukraine, and even went as far as refusing to meet with the President of the Ukrainian country.
As told by Ruth Deyermond, the US administration condemned Russia’s attempt to annex Crimea. However, during his tenure, Trump hinted that he would recognize Russian control of the Crimean territory because everyone who lives there speaks Russian. The pandemonium intensified when Trump’s understanding of the particular matter diverged significantly from that of his aides. Trump’s perceptions and mistrust of the NATO allies make him hesitant to cooperate with European nations.
In the past, he took office without prior foreign policy training or expertise and chose ministers and secretaries based more on personal ties than their qualifications. If elected and in power, he would undoubtedly oppose penalizing Russia and would instead move on to using delaying strategies to secure Russian triumph.
Despite Trump’s political inclinations, some of Ukraine’s supporters still belong to the Republican party. To keep them from losing their loyalty or vote, Mike Pompeo attempted to assuage their fears during his speech in Tokyo. The former secretary of state, who worked for the Trump administration, stated he had never witnessed Washington turn its back on its allies. He vowed that Trump would be a leader who would work to end the Russian conflict with Ukraine as he wants world peace.
When he initially invaded Ukraine, Putin did not have a backup plan, but I believe that Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections will serve as Russia’s backup plan. This would be a nightmare for the West. I fear that Trump will not put pressure on Putin to leave areas that Moscow has confiscated since its invasion. In my opinion, the war will finish on Russia’s terms, if Trump cuts off the supply of weapons.
Public support for the Ukrainian war in the United States has decreased as well. According to a Pew Survey, more individuals believe that America should concentrate on solving its domestic issues. Nearly 51% of respondents think that America should prioritize its internal issues. A professor of national security at New Haven University, Jeffrey Treistman, claims that it is uncertain whether or not the war will stop if US backing is withdrawn.
There is potential that the battle might last for years or perhaps even decades. Zelensky has previously stated that he is unafraid of US elections, and with the admirable resistance shown by the Ukrainian people throughout the war, the right for Ukraine to exist will not necessarily disappear if US support ends.
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