Introduction
After transitioning to a democratic form of governance in May 2016, Myanmar’s military-oriented state system was finally beginning to see an end, as perceived by the global community. Unfortunately, the ground realities were completely different in this regard. Even after sustaining a democratically elected government, the quasi-military structure of the state institutions put a plethora of question marks on Myanmar’s democratic legitimacy.
Despite facing sanctions and diplomatic isolation from the international community, Myanmar’s quasi-military regime persists in violating the fundamental human rights of the persecuted Rohingya Muslim community. The most recent mass expulsion of the Rohingya Muslim population in August 2017 was an upsetting episode that saw genocidal attributes committed by the right-wing extremist military regime.
A protracted social conflict in nature, the Rohingya Muslim crisis is an ethnic dilemma that has seen no progressive prospects in decades. By using Edward Azar’s protracted social conflict theory, one can analyze the complex profile of this crisis. But first, some thorough digging into the 2017 episode and present conditions is required.
Clearance Operation Campaign of 2017 and Present Implications
According to some reports, the 2017 violence was perpetrated when the Arakan Salvation Rohingya Army (ASRA), a separatist-militant group, claimed responsibility for deliberately launching attacks on Myanmar’s law enforcement institutes. In retaliation, the Myanmar government orchestrated a brutal military-mounted campaign to neutralize the “terrorist” threat that persisted in Rakhine. This led to violence, persecution, and displacement of thousands of Rohingya Muslims, mostly women and children.
The Rohingya population fled to neighboring Bangladesh, a country already struggling to withhold the demographic burden of 300,000 Rohingya Muslims. Currently hosting a million documented refugees, Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazaar has been designated a haven for the fleeing refugees. The living conditions within the camps are terrible, with poor sanitation and a lack of facilities to cater to the Rohingya’s needs. The humanitarian aid provided by UNICEF and UNHCR barely covers the necessities for survival.
As of now, besides threats of persecution and statelessness, the Rohingya refugees residing in Cox’s Bazaar are prone to climate hazards. As monsoon approaches Bangladesh, consistent rainfall and storms cover the landscape from June through October annually. The Rohingya Muslims, to withstand the harsh weather conditions, opt to build sturdy camps within the refugee areas but the lack of materials and resources leaves the door open for destruction and diseases.
Protracted Social Conflict Theory by Edward Azar
Being one of the forefathers of the pedagogical implications of Conflict Resolution, Edward E. Azar has proposed that identity-based ambiguities and deprivations fuel the majority of contemporary conflicts. He defines it as follows:
“In brief, protracted social conflicts occur when communities are deprived of the satisfaction of their basic needs on the basis of the communal identity. However, the deprivation is the result of a complex causal chain involving the role of the state and the pattern of international linkages. Furthermore, initial conditions (colonial legacy, domestic historical setting, and the multi-communal nature of the society) play important roles in shaping the genesis of protracted social conflict.”
The protracted social conflict theory is characterized by three key phases. Each phase describes the different proponents that fuel the prolongation of conflict and what contributes to making the conflict a socially protracted one.
Genesis
The transformation of circumstances from non-conflictual to conflictual can be credited to a particular set of conditions that play a role in instigating violence. These conditions are known as “genesis.” It is further spread into four variables: communal content, human needs, government and the state’s role, and international linkages.
Process Dynamics
This component of the theory describes the repercussions followed by the preconditions of genesis, mapping how the four variables play a part in transforming the conflict from a latent stage to an active one. Azar describes how “communal actions and strategies, state actions and strategies, and built-in mechanisms of conflict” are the determining factors in the metamorphosis of a covert conflict into an overt one.
Outcome Analysis
Azar claims that protracted conflicts usually have negative results since the prolonged timeline distorts the root cause of the conflict. Typically, it results in negative-sum outputs with no clarity at the end and no difference between the winners and compromisers of the protracted social conflict. This ultimately hinders any hope for reconciliation and solutions that come anywhere near meeting the unmet needs.
Examining the Rohingya Crisis through the Protracted Social Conflict Model
By employing the various proponents of the protracted social conflict model, one can deduce an analysis of the conflict or crisis at hand and look for opportunities to transform the underlying patterns and relationships of the conflicting parties.
Genesis
The Rohingya Muslim community, predominantly residing in the Rakhine state of Myanmar, has been facing persecution since the late 18th century. As the spread of Theravada Buddhism (a branch of Buddhism) became more sporadic, extremist homogenous sentiments among the Buddhist community also flourished.
Even though Myanmar is home to approximately 135 indigenous ethnic groups, discrimination runs rampant in the country at the hands of the quasi-military regime. The Rohingya community, which has been an easy target of ethnic cleansing, has gone through an indefinite violation of basic human rights.
To a certain extent, the role of international linkages has exasperated the crisis into an active genocide. China and India have economic interests in the resource-rich Myanmar and have plans to advertise economic incentives in the region while collaborating with the quasi-military regime. China and India view the Rohingya Muslims as separatists who follow extremist Islamic ideologies, ultimately painting them as “terrorists” on the regional canvas.
Some individual actors have made efforts to promote democracy in the country but have been mostly shunned by the military echelon. Moreover, separatist groups among different ethnic communities have germinated, but efforts to eradicate the quasi-military regime have been in vain.
Process Dynamics
The era of British imperialism in South Asia marked the beginning of violent processes against the Rohingya Muslims. Initially, the process of expulsion of Rohingya Muslims was passive in nature, and later on, this passivity would become one of the major reasons for the crisis. The British colonial objectives included expanding the control of the British Crown into the region of Burma (presently Myanmar). The Crown did so by bringing demographic changes and relocating thousands of Indians into the Arakan state (presently Rakhine state). This demographic change would give the Burmese kingdom an excuse to delegitimize the presence of Rohingya Muslims who had been living in Arakan for centuries.
The violent expulsion of the Rohingya Muslims was manifested in three mass exoduses.
- Operation Dragon King
Operation Dragon King was a military operation carried out in 1978 by the Tatmadaw and Burmese immigration officials in the northern Rakhine state (formerly Arakan), where approximately 200,000 Rohingya Muslims were driven out from fear of mass arrests, persecution, and horrific violence. Neighboring Bangladesh bore the most burden of fleeing Rohingya refugees.
- Operation Clean and Beautiful Nation
Operation Clean and Beautiful Nation was another military operation carried out by the Tatmadaw and Burmese army against the so-called “Rohingya foreigners” in the northern Rakhine state, which saw the mass exodus of 250,000 Rohingya Muslims into neighboring Bangladesh as well as into Thailand and Malaysia. An interesting aspect is that the military operations weren’t just carried out against the RSO separatists but also numerous other ethnic groups who were feared for jeopardizing Myanmar’s military control and homogeneity objectives.
The Rohingya Crisis of 2017 was a scheme of renewed violence by the quasi-military regime of Myanmar. Reports of rape, murder, and arson triggered the third and largest migration of Rohingya refugees, with over 600,000 people displaced from Rakhine. After making promises of democracy and granting basic citizenship laws to the Rohingya community, the quasi-military establishment engaged in a violent crackdown against the innocent Rohingya Muslims, which is defined as “genocide” among various textbook definitions.
Outcome Analysis
So far, on an individual level, the outcomes of repeated expulsion and violence have left the Rohingya Muslims frustrated and disappointed in the ineffectiveness of humanitarian organizations. With a lack of citizenship laws and advocacy, Rohingya individuals are left to fend for themselves while facing terrible situations in refugee camps.
Being the largest “stateless” community in the world, the Rohingya Muslims suffer from relative deprivation and have been impoverished for decades. Bangladesh has made efforts to negotiate repatriation with Myanmar’s government but it goes against the policy of non-refoulment, ultimately putting peace initiatives on a pedestal.
On the state level, Myanmar has barely shown an interest in catering to the fundamental human rights of Rohingya Muslims and has started to promote the in-patronization of other ethnic groups into the Rakhine state to eliminate the Rohingya traces demographically. Bangladesh, which hosts almost a million documented refugees and thousands of undocumented refugees, is seeking ways to grant safe migration to Rohingya Muslims in other countries to lessen the burden on its economy and welfare infrastructure.
Way Forward
“Reconciliation and forgiveness are inextricably linked to the identity and unity we develop as a nation.”
Joni Madraiwiwi
By utilizing Edward Azar’s protracted social conflict model, one can analyze the dynamic profile and trends of a conflict and work towards a resolution or management mechanism. The Rohingya Muslim ethnic dilemma has persisted for centuries and needs to be highlighted on the global stage if peace is to prevail in the region. Moreover, external state actors such as China and India should play their role progressively and assist in transforming the ethnic crisis to improve the tarnished relations between Myanmar’s military regime and the persecuted Rohingya Muslims.
Nelson Mandela’s Centre for Truth and Reconciliation sets an altruistic example of achieving peace, consideration, and empathy among the apartheid African authorities and the Black African community. A similar mechanism to foster connectivity and progress may encourage a positive trajectory for the relations between the Rohingya Muslims and the quasi-military regime of Myanmar. The first step to this connectivity is granting citizenship rights to the Rohingya Muslims and promoting capacity-building prospects in Myanmar’s state infrastructure.
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Ms. Fatimah Naeem is pursuing her bachelor's in peace and conflict studies from National Defence University, Islamabad.