What Happened in Syria? The Fall of Bashar Al-Assad

The Fall of Damascus

With the miserably long war in Ukraine and decades-long civil wars, modern warfare seemed to be relegated to a highly static and attritional affair. Yet, in less than 2 weeks, a rebel offensive by Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) has toppled the 24-year-long Syrian regime of Bashar Al-Assad. This is a startling development, and it signals the fall of a dynasty, the loss of power for Iran and Russia, an opportunity for Israel, and a new future for the eternally volatile Middle East. This begs the question, exactly what happened in Syria?

From Protests to Pandemonium

Explaining Syrian politics and individual control of Syrian territory may prove to be a herculean task. Even before the rapid rebel advance, Assad only ruled 60% of the country directly. Foreign powers controlled land in Syria through proxies with conflicting goals, each striving to carve up the land for themselves.

Let me try to explain each nation’s goal in Syria as simply as I can. The whole conflict arose around 2011, during part of the broader Arab Spring, a democratic movement against autocrats in the Arab World. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad responded to the rebels with force. By 2012, the insurgents had turned the protest into a full-blown civil war; Russia and Iran supported the Syrian Government, and the rebels were supported by America, Turkey, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. 

Now, let’s list the actions and intentions of each country:

Pro Bashar Al-Assad

Iran

They want Syria to be a regional ally and to suffocate its enemies, such as Israel and Saudia Arabia. It also operates as a bridge to finance their proxies, such as Hezbollah (proxy in Lebanon) and Hamas (proxy in Gaza). 

Russia

They want to protect their Mediterranean ports of Tartus and Latakia, which are leased military installations that give access to power projection to the wider Middle East. Russia and the West have a naturally antagonistic approach to each other, so whoever the other supports, they need to support the opposite.

Anti Bashar Al-Assad

Saudia Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council

They want to remove Assad to weaken Iran’s regional influence and support Sunni-majority governance.

Turkey

They want to reduce the power of the Kurdish Movement in Syria, which is an ethno-nationalist movement attempting to create a state for the Kurdish people. This self-determination, however, has placed claims on lands in eastern Turkey where the Kurds have historically lived. The Turkish Government also routinely fights with the PKK (Kurdish Worker’s Party), a terrorist organization that would just be emboldened if a strong Kurdish state popped up in Syria.

USA

They want to defeat ISIS, contain jihadist influence, and weaken Assad’s regime without full-scale intervention. They support moderate rebel groups, conduct airstrikes against ISIS, and later align with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the Kurds. So, this is where the complexity starts: The USA and Turkey are part of NATO, funding the rebels and dislike Assad, yet they fund different rebel groups and wage wars against each other’s rebel groups.

Israel

They want to minimize Iranian influence and aim to limit Iran’s military presence in Syria, preventing the establishment of a permanent Iranian foothold that could threaten Israeli security, such as Syria being used as a bridge to finance Hezbollah and Hamas.

With adequate context, we can now finally talk about the major factions directly controlling territory in Syria:

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

HTS emerged from the Al-Nusra Front, which was affiliated with Al-Qaeda. It has since sought to rebrand itself as a more moderate Islamist group. HTS has successfully overthrown President Bashar al-Assad from power and will establish an Islamic governance system in Syria. HTS has received support from Turkey, which aims to counteract the Assad regime and prevent Kurdish expansion in northern Syria.

Syrian National Army (SNA)

Like HTS, the SNA’s primary objective is to establish a new government in Syria. The SNA aims to create a buffer zone along the Turkish border to prevent Kurdish autonomy and influence in the region. The SNA is heavily supported by Turkey, which provides military aid and logistical support to counter both Assad’s forces and Kurdish groups. The SNA views Kurdish groups as a significant threat due to their aspirations for autonomy in northern Syria.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)

The SDF seeks to establish an autonomous region for Kurds and other ethnic groups in northeastern Syria. A primary objective is to continue combating remnants of ISIS in the area. The SDF has been supported by the US in its fight against ISIS, receiving military training, equipment, and air support. Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist organization due to its links with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) and actively opposes its expansion.

Extremism with a PR Strategy

The current news cycle seems to be content with labeling the HTS as simply rebels, a privilege rarely given to armed groups in the region. As mentioned before, it was seminally related to groups such as Al-Qaeda, and its leader, Abu Mohammad Al-Julani, has been part of ISIS and Al-Qaeda at different points of the conflict. From an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, HTS, under Julani’s leadership, unified with other jihadist groups to form Tahrir-Al-Sham in 2017. Though designated a terror organization by the USA, European Union, and a host of different countries, recent developments have led to questions about the designation.

According to Western intelligence assessments, HTS proves to be no direct threat to Europe or the United States. This judgment could mean that the US and EU will soon remove HTS’s designation as a terror organization.

HTS’s principal focus appears to be focused on domestic priorities, consolidating power, and rebuilding the country after 13 years of civil war. Officials have indicated there are no signs of any intention to promote global jihadism or allow the resurgence of the Islamic State.

In November 2017, HTS launched a wide-scale crackdown on Al-Qaeda elements in Idlib and arrested prominent leaders from the Af-Pak region and Al-Nusra Front, such as Sami al-Oraydi. This has been seen as proof of their rather moderate elements, but once again, the West seems reluctant to fully decide at the moment, planning to see how the government acts after seizing power. 

Uncertain Future

Syrians may rejoice for the end of the Assad regime and a possible end to the 14-year-long conflict that has racked up a death toll as high as 620,000. Yet, one can’t help but be reminded about the jubilant ways Syrian rebel fighters had toppled Saddam Hussein’s statue or thrown around Gaddafi’s flailing corpse. Saddam’s power vacuum had led to the creation of ISIS and its immensely brutal reign. In Syria’s case, the HTS is claimed by many to be partially supported or green-lit by the Turks. Meanwhile, the precise extent of HTS’s cooperation with Turkey is a matter of some debate. Officially, Turkey designates HTS as a “terror group” and denies having any prior knowledge of the group’s recent operations. Unlike other militias, HTS possesses the strength to operate independently within Syria. While HTS claims to avoid retributive actions or the oppression of minorities, the reality remains to be seen.

Turkey has managed to secure certain objectives along the border. However, despite several near successes, it has been unable to eliminate the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) due to the Assad government’s unwillingness to negotiate border-zone agreements and the presence of Russian and U.S. troops in SDF-held territory.

The problem is this new government will either engage in conflict with the Kurds and, by extension, the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) to appease Turkey in exchange for material or financial support, or they’ll allow Turkey and the SNA (Syrian National Army) free reign to deal with the Kurds as they like, one of the two will happen, and both will exacerbate tensions and flare up violence again.

In the north, the looming Turkish interests are only countered by the more visceral reaction in the south by Israel. The Israeli campaign over the past two days has been exceptional in force and scope, trying to ensure that whoever ends up in power in Syria will be significantly disarmed. After months of intensified Israeli airstrikes targeting Syria, including strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah weapons depots, this week’s large-scale bombings were notably more extensive and destructive. The recent assault significantly weakened Syria’s military infrastructure and disrupted the networks Iran relies on to transport weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel has also occupied the de-militarized buffer zone of the Golan Heights and began striking down naval vessels on the Syrian coast. The justification given was that the 1974 agreement had collapsed because Syrian troops protecting some of the buffer zone had abandoned their posts.

This collapse also signals the certain downfall of Iranian and Russian power; this proves how the Israeli and Ukrainian campaigns have hamstrung their ability to effectively defend their interests or their proxies. Syria was the base for financing Hezbollah and Hamas for Iran and a strategic base for Russia for power projection and to protect its proxies in the Middle East and Africa. Iran may have been more critically crippled as their proxies Hamas and Hezbollah face intense bombardment by Israel, leading to the elimination of the top brass of both organizations. This blow might signal the slow destruction of Iranian and Russian influence as their proxies slowly flail due to their sponsors being occupied with other matters.

Though we all hope for a peaceful future for the Syrian people devoid of war and bloodshed, that might be a naive notion. With Turkish and Israeli encroachment dividing the north and the south of Syria, HTS has a tough job ahead. The group’s ambitions are unlikely to deter foreign powers with far bigger stakes at play. Instead, these actors—each with their own agendas—seem ready to turn Syria into a chessboard of chaos once again, pushing the country back towards a fractured, war-torn battleground.

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