Introduction
For many years, the Arctic was seen as only a frozen land far from the global political hustle. However, the representation of the Arctic as a wasteland has shifted, and the region is now becoming a geopolitical hotspot. In August 2007, MIR-1 and MIR-2 sank more than 4,300 meters beneath the Arctic to hoist the Russian flag. It was a turning point that highlighted Moscow’s intentions, and it raised concerns among Arctic states.
Canada’s then foreign minister Peter MacKay told CTV Television, “This isn’t the 15th century; one cannot simply travel the world to stake claim to a territory by planting a flag and saying, ‘This is our territory.’” This unsettling development has prompted NATO to state that the Arctic is again a focus for alliances. A melting Arctic region is opening up strategically important maritime routes and revealing considerable reserves of oil, gas, and minerals, which turns ice into a treasure. Some analysts are saying this is the opening phase of the “Second Cold War,” where melting ice is melting global peace.
The Arctic’s Strategic Importance
Eight countries constitute the Arctic region: Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Iceland, Russia, the United States, and Finland. Conflicts exist between these countries in the Arctic. The Arctic region has navigation routes that may reduce the Asia-Europe shipping distance by nearly 3,000 nautical miles: the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which goes along Russia’s Arctic coast, and the Northwest Passage (NWP), which goes through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. These routes can reduce shipping time from one to two weeks.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the Arctic may have 22% of the world’s oil and gas (approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 1669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquid, with 84% expected offshore). Future expected significant resource basins are the Arctic Alaska, the Amerasian Basin, the East Greenland Rift, and West Greenland-East Canada. The region also presents rare earth minerals, additional precious metals (gold, nickel, and platinum), phosphates, and diamonds, which is increasing global competition.
The First Arctic Cold War (1947-1991)
The Soviet Union joined the Cold War and conducted its submarine operations, constructed SSBN bases, and built climate monitoring posts such as Object 700 of Novaya Zemlya. The US and NATO countered Russia’s actions by collaborating with Greenland, Iceland, and the UK, forming an alliance known as GIUK, to intercept Soviet submarines and protect the vital sea routes.
Both sides deployed nuclear-capable aircraft, and naval operations were conducted frequently. The US submarine Queenfish mapped the Siberian continental shelf beneath the Arctic in 1970; meanwhile, the Soviets strengthened their bastion defense strategy.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, tensions reduced in the Arctic region. Many of the airbases and submarines were deactivated, but some of them were kept as a residue of deterrence.
Melting Ice: Catalyst for Renewed Competition
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) says that the Arctic’s ice is melting 13% per decade and its thickness has lowered by about 2 meters since the last century. Some reports say that if global warming continues, then the Arctic will be declared an ice-free zone before 2050. The Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage are seeing an increase in navigability. The Northern Sea Route has become 18% more accessible, and the Northwest Passage is expected to be 30% accessible by 2050. Due to this melting ice, tensions have increased in the Arctic region, as some states have overlapping claims, especially around the Lomonosov Ridge.
Article 48 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) permits the states of the Arctic to claim a territory of 200 nautical miles from their coastlines, further delimiting territory in the Arctic region. These matters are now being considered by the UN Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea for next steps, but there is not much progress, which is increasing the degree of tension in the Arctic.
Moreover, the Russians have made improvements to their air capability with infrastructure upgrades to airbases such as Nagurskoye on Franz Josef Land, as well as deploying S-400 air defense systems to protect shipping lanes. Russia has specialized Arctic brigades. Russia has partnered with China through the Polar Silk Road to develop infrastructure to be economically strong. In response to it, NATO has intensified its Trident exercises, the US has reactivated its second fleet, and littoral states have strengthened patrols.
This power play between Russia and Western states is leading the world towards a second Cold War. Shortly, the Arctic region will be the central arena of great power rivalry.
Security Risks and Escalation Potential in the Arctic
The strategic environment in the Arctic is a major source of security danger. The Arctic Council has scaled back its participation in the environmental monitoring mechanism since Russia’s invasion in 2022. Military operations have been stepped up, resulting in at-sea or aerial conflicts between Russian and NATO vessels or planes.
The Svalbard Treaty is a bone of contention between Russia and Norway, and climate change is amplifying these pressures. Melting ice not only paves new sea routes but also intensifies nations’ resource competition. Weakened governance, military expansion, and climate change collectively make the Arctic a threat where skirmishes could rapidly escalate into major conflicts, or another Cold War.
Policy Recommendations
Shortly, the world would witness two outcomes: one would lead towards great power rivalry due to a lack of transparency and coordination, undermining decades of cooperative frameworks, and the other would be the revival of joint leadership, which would prioritize environmental protection. Eventually, there would be regional stability.
To mitigate these risks, there are some policy recommendations:
- Expand confidence-building measures.
- Promote joint environmental monitoring.
- Establish an Arctic code of conduct.
- Institutionalize transparency in military and commercial activities.
Conclusion
In the past, the Arctic was considered a barren wasteland; now it is a major area of interest globally. Global warming has warmed the Arctic, opening up new shipping routes and major deposits of fossil fuels and rare earth minerals. The historical lesson from the First Arctic Cold War indicates that whoever controls the Arctic will control the future of global trade. Russia is strengthening its military and economy through conducting covert operations in the Arctic, and NATO and other Western states are countering Russia by patrolling and conducting various naval exercises. In the melting ice of the Arctic lies the boiling point of great-power rivalry. Now, the Arctic region is not just a geographical space, but it is a litmus test of humans’ ability to balance national interests, environmental responsibility, and international security.
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