Introduction
The Brahmaputra River flows from Tibet to the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam before entering Bangladesh. It has different names in each country: in Tibet, it is called Yarlung Tsangpo; in Bangladesh, Jamuna; and in India, Brahmaputra. About 50.5% of its basin is in China, 33.6% in India, and 8.1% in Bangladesh. In 2020, China unveiled its 14th Five-Year Plan, which included the Yarlung Tsangpo dam. In December 2024, the project was approved by the government, and on July 19, 2025, Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the ceremony to make an official announcement about its construction. The dam is valued at 1.2 trillion yuan and is three times larger than the world’s biggest dam, the Three Gorges Dam. It will feature five hydroelectric power stations. According to China, it will meet most of Tibet’s and other parts of China’s electricity needs.
Implications for India and Bangladesh as Downstream States
As India and Bangladesh are lower riparian states, the construction of the dam on the Brahmaputra River would have serious consequences for them. This region is already prone to floods and earthquakes. The infrastructure development on such a large scale would increase the natural disasters like landslides, earthquakes, and floods. It would affect the local population living on the riverbank. The livelihood of most people living near the river is fishery. Approximately 200 species of fish are in the Brahmaputra River, and due to the decrease in river flow, they would migrate, and the fishing industry would be affected.
It plays an important role in the local economy. The water from this river is used for irrigation in certain parts of India and Bangladesh. Due to the dam’s construction, the water flow in the river would decrease, impacting the agricultural sector of both countries. During winter, they would experience water shortages, and during the monsoon, they would face the threat of floods.
The common Indian narrative suggests that China is building this dam to expand its influence in the region, particularly over India. During conflicts, China might release stored water in Indian areas to cause flooding. It is believed that in the future, countries will rely less on traditional warfare and more on water, technology, and artificial intelligence to pressure their enemies. Even now, in the recent India-Pakistan conflict, India threatened to suspend the Indus Water Treaty and used water as a weapon. China is doing the same with India by constructing a dam on a river that is crucial to India. Indian analysts see it as a significant failure of the government on the international stage, especially since it follows a diplomatic setback in the recent India-Pakistan war, representing a blow to Indian foreign policy and diplomacy.
Furthermore, the Brahmaputra River is vital for India, China, and Bangladesh, but so far, there has been no treaty signed between these countries concerning the distribution and use of the river water. That’s why it is legal for China to build the dam, despite the potential impacts on the local population and concerns expressed by India and Bangladesh. After the dam’s construction, India would almost lose its race to become a regional hegemon. This is because India is already in a position where it cannot take action against China due to the large volume of trade between them, and India also has a trade deficit of $99.2 billion with China.
Indian Response
The approval by the Chinese government for dam construction in December 2025 sparked concerns among the local population in India, leading to protests in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, and the issue was also raised in the Indian Parliament. Due to internal pressure, government officials issued an official statement that they are monitoring the situation. India also announced the construction of the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), which was initially proposed in 2017. This $13 billion project aims to generate electricity and maintain the river’s water flow. The main goal of this project is to counter China in regional water politics.
Bangladesh’s Response
Bangladesh’s government didn’t raise a strong voice against the dam construction because of the number of projects China started in Bangladesh. Additionally, Bangladesh is not economically or politically strong enough in the region to raise concerns about any project of China. China has invested billions of dollars in Bangladesh as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, China assured Bangladesh that the dam construction would not affect Bangladesh much.
Interlinkage with the Indus Water Treaty and the Pakistan-India Water Dispute
The Brahmaputra Dam construction has no direct link to Pakistan, but both are part of the water politics in the region. India is raising concerns about China’s actions; however, it has been violating the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) itself for decades. Pakistan is an agricultural country and needs water every year for irrigation purposes, but India has made dams on rivers that were given to Pakistan in the Indus Water Treaty. It stops the water flow illegally when needed and opens the floodgates during the monsoon to create floods in Pakistan. Now, India has fears that the Brahmaputra Dam construction would cause floods in India. According to the regional analysts, the dam construction would also facilitate Pakistan during the conflicts with India.
Regional Impacts of Dam Construction
The construction of such a large dam would cause mass displacement of the local population. The people living in the specific area for centuries would not easily migrate, and it would cause trouble for the government. The area where the dam would be constructed is religiously important for Tibetans, which is why they protested in December 2024 against the project, and the government started a crackdown on them. When the Three Gorges Dam was built in China, 1.3 million people were displaced from their homes, and a large number of archeological sites were also damaged. This new dam would be three times larger than the Three Gorges Dam. And this time, the damage would also be larger than the previous one. The Chinese government is trying to give compensation to the citizens who will be displaced, but people will not leave their homes easily.
This dam could lead to regional instability in the future. As India has serious concerns about its construction, the conflict can arise between the two countries. China and India already have a long history of military and political disputes. The local population of India would pressure the government to stand against its construction, and it would compel the government to raise its voice on an international level. The small misunderstanding can lead to a serious dispute between the countries because both India and China want to gain ultimate power in the region. This power game between two nuclear states would affect other smaller countries in this region.
Critics argue that this dam would also contribute to climate change by diverting the flow of water. The livelihood of millions of people living near the river in India and Bangladesh would be affected. This would lead to an unrest situation and mass protests by the local population. It can also become a global human rights issue because a large number of people would lose their livelihoods.
Conclusion
This project could be a game-changer for China because it would boost electricity production capacity and help people living in rural and urban areas of Tibet. However, China should address concerns raised by other countries about water shortages and the displacement of local populations. China should also offer proper jobs to those who lose their livelihoods due to the dam’s construction. India, Bangladesh, and China should cooperate to resolve their issues related to the dam. International organizations could also step in to mediate these disputes. All three countries might consider signing an agreement on water sharing. Such cooperation could promote peace in the region.
Ms Jaweria Naseem is currently pursuing her Bachelor's in International Relations from International Islamic University, Islamabad.