Mr Tufail Abbas holds a Master’s degree in International Relations. He teaches English essay writing and International Relations via Cuckoo's Study Lab YouTube Channel.
“When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.”
Ancient proverb of the Kikuyu people
Changing dynamics of the global operating system, shifting sands in the tectonic plates of geopolitics, and hard-edged realpolitik of major powers have once again introduced Pakistan to a catch-22 situation and the highly infamous US policy of “carrot and stick.”
The country is once again finding itself in dire straits about navigating its relationship with the United States and enjoying working ties with its immediate neighbors. This time, Islamabad confronts Uncle Sam’s diplomatic brinkmanship vis-à-vis its energy project (Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline) with Iran.
Since Iran and the US have been locked in a mode of confrontation and a cold war matrix ever since the former’s theocratic revolution of 1979, thenceforth, Washington has never missed any opportunity to hurt Iran’s interests and external engagements. It is in this connection, and as a means towards depriving Iran’s already struggling economy of breathing space that the established hegemon is hell-bent on creating, what political scientist Amit Acharya calls, a checkerboard pattern—in which a rival construes a friend of its enemy as a foe of its own. Moreover, and to the detriment of its supposed adversaries, the United States is using all resources available at its disposal to inflict unacceptable damages on its arch-rival—Iran.
Historically, being the father and maintainer of the so-called rule-based liberal meritocratic order, America has sparsely exercised the element of restraint on account of interstate constructive transactions involving parties who did not toe its line of action, even in times when such engagements were conducive for global interconnectedness, interconnectivity, and shared prosperity.
While abusing its power and privilege, the hegemon in decline transformed the notion of liberal internationalism into liberal interventionism, deployed its clearing houses to dissuade economic engagements and interstate financial transactions, slapped punitive sanctions on self-engineered enemies, rewarded cronies, and weaponized institutional arrangements to further polarize the comity of nations. Consequently, in all those instances, it happened to author a zero-sum matrix such as “either with us or against us” and “follow us or face the consequences .”
But, as time passes and the reign of American exploitation approaches its tipping point, the country’s global image and standing are witnessing a downward trend. Given its domestic irregularities, financial hardships, failure to catch the tide of technological sophistication, and increasingly eroding external influence, the city upon a hill is now in no position to school others diplomatically on what to do and what not. The once widely-revered global policeman no longer serves as a beacon of hope for developed, rising, and struggling societies in the twenty-first century.
Doubtlessly, during its heyday of American exceptionalism, the country grossly exploited its power and legitimacy and added more to the miseries of the global community in its quest to secure its entrenched national interests. With the rise of new economic centers and transition of power away from the Euro-Atlantic to Asia-Pacific, the country is subject to an identity crisis and becoming astronomically hapless due, in part, to the loss of its once ubiquitous influence, exemplary invincibility, and omnipresent readiness to leading by the power of its example than an example of its power.
In this vein, Fareed Zakaria rightly notes that the United States’ global eminence sprouted out with the fall of the Berlin Wall and plummeted with the fall of Saddam’s Ba’athist regime in Iraq. Needlessly, America’s ever-emaciating global soft image, deteriorating domestic outlook, and extraneous insular posture have long ago given way to competing alternatives. For instance, today, countries find it more rewarding to stand by the side of the new economic powerhouse and the global workshop—China—than the United States.
It’s now no longer a covert mystery that in a milieu of triangular spheres of influence—sinosphere, anglosphere, and atmosphere—at play, countries are inclined more to importing China’s development model at the expense of the Washington consensus.
To leapfrog into a more certain and sustainable future, countries, like Pakistan, should strategically pay heed to the aspirations of their populace, tailor policies that bear the substantive potential to accrue sustainable results, adopt a non-adventurist external posture to avert the displeasure of the major powers, avoid becoming part of camp/bloc politics, engage actively with all to further their national interests, and rally support for a more democratized, pluralistic, and multilateral global order to help establish a more civilized, accommodating, and equitable world-operating framework.
Undoubtedly, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and the US sanctions on Iran are a test case for Pakistan’s diplomatic quarters and a catch-22 moment of “stand and suffer or surrender and survive” for Pakistan. Against this backdrop, the country need not practice indifference to its mushrooming energy gap between demand and supply; prioritizing its national well-being by providing a rationale behind getting on with the IP (Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline) project and its factor-led relationships with its immediate neighbors.
If carried forward and completed, the IP gas pipeline project may well be in a position to not only meet Islamabad’s energy demands but also to introduce reliable prospects for the country to bring order to the restive province of Balochistan and elsewhere; leading to an expeditious progression on CPEC projects.
Above all, the Government of Pakistan ought to realize that it is solely in unsettling times that nations either make themselves by treading with firm, persistent tides or break their ambitions to stand up to true eminence by not opting for hard, yet much-needed salubrious choices.
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