“He who rides the tiger can never dismount.”
Chinese Proverb
Pakistan has to deal with many challenges and vulnerabilities that are based on economic and political instability and institutional tension between the civil, military, and judiciary. Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China through CPEC is also tearing apart its relationship with the United States because Donald Trump has traditionally been skeptical of Pakistan-China ties. This is another challenge for Pakistan because the rapport was unique in the past, considering that former Prime Minister Imran Khan had good terms with Donald Trump. However, the incumbent regime has always criticized Donald Trump.
The nation needs to conjure a balanced foreign policy that preserves strategic autonomy and resolves the current economic crisis and institutional stability while dealing with the world powers on the other side—a tough balancing act, trying Pakistan’s diplomatic acumen in a complex world environment.
The 2024 US Elections
The story of the 2024 presidential election results is one of an America greatly divided along geographical lines. It’s a transverse demographic snapshot of Donald Trump‘s victory by 301 electoral votes over Kamala Harris’s 226, plus a popular vote victory by 74.2 million votes (50.5%) to Harris’s 70.3 million (47.9%). This gap of 3.9 million votes speaks of how many voters still stand in line with American metropolitan versus rural politics. Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Robert Kennedy, who together attracted some 1.35 million votes or 1%, indicated a minor but perceptible appetite for political alternatives but without having any particular influence on the eventual result.
The aftermath of the election strengthened the importance of the Electoral College system and emphasized the role swing states have in American presidential politics. The geographic distribution was witness to the tremendous hold rural and suburban areas had over defining electoral success while urban centers largely conformed to Democratic preference patterns.
Each of the two major party candidates mobilized millions of voters, more than 70 million each, and the 2.6-point edge in the popular vote only reflected an electorate that was intensely contested and engaged. It speaks to America’s demographic and ideological divides even as it underscores the durability of two-party dominance, which endures even with the third-party alternatives remaining very much in play.
What to Expect from Trump’s Comeback
Donald Trump’s first term, 2017-2021, defined and revamped the policy blueprint that will shape and change the politics of America. His “America First” agenda delivered radical domestic reforms, including cutting corporate tax rates from 35% to 21% through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, aggressive trade policies toward China with $360 billion in tariffs, and stringent immigration measures, including the building of 452 miles of border wall.
But given the mixed results of his economic policies, which have included remarkable success but also headaches, including a national debt increase to $7.8 trillion and economic turbulence tied to pandemic wave crests, he has provided a solid underpinning to hold onto his base and laid the groundwork for future policy direction.
Building from this legacy, the renewed policy agenda of Trump focuses on an expansion and intensification of previous initiatives but with new elements on account of current challenges. His platform has continued emphasis on strengthening border security measurements, an aggressive posture towards China in trade relations, more significant energy independence through fossil fuel production, and more tax cuts implemented.
This aspect is particularly pronounced in the approach towards economic nationalism and business deregulation. He is expected to focus more attention on adjusting the international trade arrangements and further strengthening protectionist policies. These policy priorities, resonating strongly with the people he can relate to best, are another standout. This implies a deepening rather than a basic flip from his original agenda, with the potential for intensification of both economic nationalism and deregulatory approaches characterized by the first term.
Trump’s Comeback and the Pakistan Factor
Pakistan is presently in an economic crisis characterized by excessive inflation, record debt, and currency devaluation. Complemented by distress in politics, these economic woes leave the nation clueless as to the direction it can take in its policies. The social tensions have increased manifold, with increasing distrust of the institutions. Society is divided on the ideological plank, whereas the economy continues to be dependent on international financial institutions, such as the IMF, whose conditions sometimes work out to be detrimental to the national economy.
The domestic political arena is multi-dimensional. It is infected with institutional tensions and growing economic challenges. This leads to civilian leadership walking a tightrope, balancing having autonomy in the exercise of its decision-making powers. Adding to that complexity is the increasingly contentious role played by the judiciary with accusations of selective justice and the irregular application of legal principles in political cases, raising questions about institutional integrity and having a shrouding impact on Pakistan’s international standing.
These domestic challenges are intricately tied to Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities, which considerably circumscribe its options when it comes to foreign policy. The country’s reliance on IMF programs, compounded by the accumulation of external debt and volatility in the currency, has placed the country in a position from which room for diplomatic maneuverability is inherently limited. This economic precarity forces Pakistani policymakers toward pragmatic approaches to international relationships that oftentimes override ideological preferences with a demand for practical necessity.
“In international relations, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.”
Lord Palmerston
This was a watershed moment for Pakistan’s foreign policy environment in an era of global power realignment and troubled domestic politics. Donald Trump’s re-emergence in America’s political arena adds new factors to a tricky situation that Pakistan’s foreign policy faces. This has forced Pakistan to rethink its key relationships and policy goals.
As a result, one key aspect of Pakistan’s recent foreign policy has been its teamwork with China on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a major project in China’s Belt and Road plan. This corridor seems to play a big role in this situation. It has grown into a key part of Pakistan’s foreign policy structure. Pakistan gets many perks from this partnership with China, such as big upgrades to infrastructure, money for growth, and a stronger voice in regional politics.
The deepening of this relationship has worried Washington, as the United States is wary of China’s rising influence in South Asia. Formerly, Trump’s position was one of disdain toward the ties of Pakistan with China; now with his comeback, Pakistan might face more pressure to reassess this relationship.
On the other side, China has benefited significantly from its investments, especially in infrastructure and energy projects. In response, such investments add pressure to the debt burden of Pakistan; the issue could become a landmark one in US-Pakistan relations going forward. An aggressive Trump administration could force Pakistan to rein in its relationship with China, creating a diplomatic crisis for Islamabad. This situation would test Pakistan’s ability to maintain a balanced approach as it seeks to retain its strategic partnership with China while managing relations with the US.
Furthermore, this relationship gives Pakistan an alternative to Western financial dependence, although this relationship simultaneously complicates Pakistan’s position vis-à-vis the United States, particularly in an era of intensifying US-China strategic competition.
Historical patterns in U.S.-Pakistan relations suggest a pattern of oscillation according to regional strategic priorities, while the possible return of Trump will likely profoundly influence several areas of bilateral cooperation. As for security cooperation, it may be related to procurement policies in the defense sphere, anti-terrorism measures, and regional security frameworks. On the economic front, it may be related to trade preferences, direct investment, and aid coming from international financial institutions.
The previous rapport between Donald Trump and Imran Khan showed how personal relationships between leaders can significantly influence bilateral ties, thus raising very important questions of the sort about how these bilateral relationships will affect a country’s current government’s diplomatic positioning and its domestic political narratives.
One weird element that would factor into the Pakistani stance about Trump’s comeback is the personal friendship between Trump and former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Being the first in the series of all the US-Pakistan relationships, since Khan had a friendly relationship with Trump during his tenure, it showed the brief window of goodwill between both leaders if Khan was independent in foreign policy.
In contrast, Pakistan’s incumbent regime has seemingly taken the opposite route concerning Trump and the United States at large. The existing government had vocally ranted against Trump’s policies; therefore, it will be led to change its previous stance following the political resurrection of Trump. At a minimum, the Trump victory is going to put the incumbent regime in an uncomfortable position, forcing it to come to terms with its previous criticism as there is a need to restore and strengthen ties with Washington.
The current government has the heavy responsibility of maintaining strategic flexibility while gearing up for eventual changes in U.S. foreign policy, finding that delicate balance between nourishing relations with both China and the United States, managing regional security problems, and sustaining diplomatic capital from all stakeholders.
Conclusion
Looking ahead, Pakistan’s foreign policy machinery will have to be placed on a trajectory of multiple eventualities yet consistent with the principle of strategic autonomy. Its success will largely depend upon the attainment of institutional coordination, economic stability, and balanced international relations. The way forward calls for a subtle and practical approach to diplomacy that reflects national interest while pragmatically navigating through the intricate web of power politics in world affairs.
Pakistan’s foreign policy response to these potential changes in the U.S. political landscape would prove to be the most effective in the long run if, along with institutional coordination, it evolves a clear strategic vision, its economic stability, and balanced international relations. In this regard, pragmatic diplomacy that serves Pakistan’s interests but recognizes global realities becomes not only desirable but necessary for the future of Pakistan’s diplomacy.
The wake of Donald Trump’s comeback in 2024 would spell challenges and opportunities for Pakistan’s foreign policy nexus, particularly with regard to maintaining its delicate balance between the United States and China. Even as pressure may mount on Pakistan from the newly elected US president’s administration to review close ties with China, particularly within the framework of CPEC, it has got to tread this shifting geopolitical landscape very carefully.
Its economy is in crisis and increasingly dependent on international financial institutions, Pakistan’s leadership, coupled with that of its military establishment, will have to create a pragmatic foreign policy that ensures strategic autonomy coupled with flexibility in diplomacy as well as sustenance of relations with both superpowers. For that, proper coordination would be needed within the institutions, along with economic stabilization and adjustment to an evolving power dynamic within the globe.
“In matters of diplomacy, the future depends on what we do in the present.”
Mahatma Gandhi
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Mansoor Tariq Khattak is a native of Shakardara, Kohat. Professionally, he is serving as an assistant director in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) at the Board of Revenue (BoR) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Additionally, he is pursuing his Ph.D. in remote sensing and GIS from the prestigious Punjab University, Lahore.