Mr Abdullah Hafeez is a student of International Relations at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have already destroyed three cargo ships and have imposed serious concerns for the entire trade routes in the region as they have launched 100 attacks since 7th November 2023. It is a militant group, composed of Zaydi Shiites originating out of Yemen, that controls over 300 miles of territory, including key coastal positions. They pose a challenge to the local government and civilian cargo ships in the Red Sea.
Historically inspired by Zaid bin Ali, a descendant of Ahl Al-Bayt, the founder, Hussein al-Houthi, aimed to combat local corruption and perceived the Western world as an enemy. Despite differences in ideology, the Houthis are considered proxies of Iran and draw inspiration from Hezbollah’s tactics.
Abduljabbar Zeyad/Reuters
Since 2015, they have engaged in massive attacks, including targeting a US naval vessel in 2016, which led to a US counterattack that destroyed three of their command centers. There are international claims that Houthis possess missiles with a range of 450 km, carrying 300 kg warheads, equipped with GPS navigation – not unlike arms in possession of Hezbollah and similar to those produced by Iran but these claims have been thoroughly refuted by the Islamic Republic. They also have short-range missiles capable of targeting ships up to 170 km away, reportedly of Iranian and North Korean origin. The US Secretary of State accuses Iran of supplying these missiles, supported by satellite images, although Iran denies these statements vehemently. Some analysts suspect that the Houthis, if not defeated, could be the next Hezbollah.
“God Is Great, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam”
Houthi Motto
Geo-Strategic Significance of Red Sea
The Bab El-Mandeb strait, known as the Gate of Tears in Arabic, is a narrow choke point in the Red Sea connecting the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal. Located between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, this passage is strategically crucial, as approximately 10% of the global oil trade, contributing to a trillion dollars in the global economy, passes through it. Europe heavily relies on this route for its 15% of total imports. To safeguard their trading lanes, various global powers, including China, the USA, France, Russia, and Japan, maintain military bases in the region, particularly in Djibouti. The Red Sea also holds mineral resources, including petroleum and heavy metals, adding to its geopolitical significance.
Current Escalation
Houthis’ leadership stated after the recent attacks explaining their intentions.
They declared, “If Gaza does not receive aid and medicine it needs, all the ships in the Red Sea bound for Israel regardless of nationality will become a target of our Armed Force”.
In another statement, they stated, “We have capabilities to sink your fleet, your submarines, and your worships. Red Sea will be your graveyard”.
It shows that the reason behind their attack is solely based on their affection towards the Muslims of Gaza. However, some Western analysts see this as an Iranian ploy to involve the US in a war, diverting its attention away from Iran’s ongoing nuclear developments. Another geopolitical expert blames Russia and Iran for starting two front wars, through proxies, to benefit from oil price disruptions. The reasoning behind this conclusion is that no Russian ships have been affected so far. Some Indian scholars agree with the idea that Hamas’ attack on Israel and Houthis’ actions in the Red Sea were a planned maneuver to dislodge and ultimately render unsuccessful the newly announced trade corridor which aims to connect India with Europe and to disturb Saudi-Israeli ongoing talks on establishing diplomatic relations as a side-bonus.
Global Impact
This conflict resulted in disturbing global trade as the top five shipping companies have started using an alternative route through the Cape of Good Hope which is 6000 km longer and demands at least three extra weeks, in turn pressurizing the stored supply. Ships, currently using a similar route, are left with the high-risk cost of ensuring their stability. It proved disastrous for Egypt particularly as the Suez Canal generated one-fourth of its revenue. Since the attacks started in November, 35% of the total trade has decreased. There are suspicions about an increase in the oil prices in the coming days which will directly increase the cost of living for laymen. It also added trouble for the United States; whose trade was already disturbed due to drought in the Panama Canal.
Action Taken By the US
Following the violence perpetrated by the Houthis, the United States deployed its Arley Burke-class destroyer in the Red Sea. It carries 90 missiles and a Tomahawk (a sea-to-land missile) which significantly increases its power. In total, five destroyers are patrolling the region with the capability to jam GPS signals and have in turn intercepted 38 missiles till now.
A former U.S. Naval Admiral reported that NATO submarines and other vessels have moved in significant numbers towards Yemen. The U.S. military stationed in Djibouti is on high alert for any attacks toward Israel. As ground forces, five special groups of the U.S. Army are already working in Yemen against ISIS. Experts say that these units could help to detect the exact location of Houthis which would be beneficial for coordinated air attacks if the need should arise. An aircraft carrier, carrying 65 F-18 Super Hornets, has also been moved from Bahrain towards the Red Sea. These jets can carry out 240 missions in a single day. As recorded in the U.S. statement to Congress, under ‘’Operation Prosperity Guardian’’, ten countries including UK, Canada, and Italy have deployed their military and naval ships to ensure the security of the region. In addition to that, the US has started a partnership with Gulf countries against the Houthi rebels. Pakistan too, has also deployed a PNS Tughril class frigate in the Gulf of Aden to secure its trade routes.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the conflict and aggression, shown by the Houthi rebels are severely affecting trade routes, and economic outputs, raising safety costs, and highlighting the strategic importance of the Red Sea. The detention of 25 hostages from an Israeli ship may trigger offensive actions by Western countries, as it violates the international law of the sea.
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