On 22 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine on the pretext of quelling the Nazi factions in Eastern Ukraine and supporting the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lushank from Ukraine extremist groups. However, it has been argued by many experts, including Putin himself, that NATO expansion in Eastern Europe is the main cause of the Russian invasion, which is why we observe Russia challenging the USA in a region of comparative importance for both rivals: Eastern Europe. North Korea and Russia have been strengthening ties, causing global powers to worry.
Background
After World War II, both the USA and the USSR emerged as two great powers in the face of the world. The European nations were devastated by the war, and subsequent decolonization left them in a place where they could not set the rules of the game. The USA established NATO with its European allies to secure their security and strategic interests from the USSR. The USSR made a Warsaw pact with her satellite states to challenge the Western coalition in Eastern Europe and elsewhere.
Expansion of NATO
After the disintegration of the USSR in 1991, the Warsaw Pact also dissolved, and the USA promised Mikhail Gorbachev, the then-president of the USSR, that NATO would follow. However, for several reasons, the USA decided to expand NATO despite the non-cooperative behaviour of many Western allies. These reasons include protecting the vital strategic interests of the USA and her allies worldwide, promoting democracy through security umbrellas, securing the power vacuum, and resurgence of Russia in the region.
In the early 1990s, Russia was not in a position to challenge US interventions and ambitions in Russia’s backyard. In addition, Russian leaders like Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin wanted to transform the Russian economy and political system mainly on US terms. Therefore, Bill Clinton and Yeltsin met 18 times during their tenure and signed multiple treaties and agreements of cooperation and friendship.
Bill Clinton also wanted to incorporate Russia into US-dominated international economic orders and make Russia enter into the World Trade Organization. However, these came at the expanse of NATO enlargement to Eastern Europe when, on 12 March 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic entered into NATO. Bill Clinton, the US president himself, stated that NATO enlargement was an insurance policy that protected US interests if Russia went bad.
Rise of Vladimir Putin
The political crisis in the late 1990s in Russia led to the appointment of Vladimir Putin as the Prime Minister of Russia by Boris Yeltsin. Putin was a former KGB veteran and was running the federal security service at that time. Since his appointment, he has been in power. It was at the dawn of the 21st century that Russia found a new leader who was deeply against the submissive role of Russia in global politics and wanted to regain the power and authority of Russia, similar to the Cold War era-USSR.
NATO provided a security umbrella for many European states, but geography, history, culture, and nationalism always played an important role in world affairs. Despite the ties between Russia, Georgia, and Ukraine and their geographical proximity to Russia, this did not bother US policymakers. Georgia and Ukraine had also been part of the Russian empire for three hundred years, something that had not been taken into consideration either. NATO also ignored the geographical context of Russia. Russia is a prisoner of its geography. Ukraine lies in the East European Corridor, the only way for anyone to attack Russia, especially in the past. It was used first by the Crusades, then by Napoleon Grand Armee’ and lastly by Hitler during the Second World War.
Russia, under Putin, is now flexing its muscles to establish ties and relations around the world. Russia is now the third most powerful state and has a military presence on three continents.
Opposition to NATO
Putin has warned the USA and her allies against any interventions in Russia’s sphere of influence, which he identified in 2009 as mostly consisting of Moscow’s Western neighbours. When Georgia attacked the breakaway region of South Ossetia on 7 August 2007, Putin found an opportunity to resist the assault, enter Ossetia, and drive out the Georgian troops. However, there was a dominant opinion that Putin’s sole purpose was to prevent Georgia from joining NATO (Ausmus, 2008). In addition, the NATO summit in Brussels in 2008 proposed a plan for Georgia and Ukraine membership. Moscow, in response, shut down the gas supplies.
But now, Russia is following in her arch-rival, the US, steps to balance with the USA by providing military commitments to states in the regions dominated by the USA’s strategic interests and allies. One such initiative is the recent comprehensive strategic partnership pact signed on 19 June between Putin and North Korean President Kim Jun-un.
Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Pact
According to DPRK’s state-run news agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim discussed avenues for future security, economic and cultural cooperation between the two states. The main point of the treaty is immediate military and other assistance if either is attacked by a third party, similar to Article 51 of the UN charter.
A brief overview of the treaty:
- Mutual respect for sovereignty and no interference
- Mutual defence commitment in case of attack
- Collaboration on global challenges regarding food, security, climate change, and energy
- Cultural and educational exchanges
- Joint efforts against terrorism and other organized crimes,
Strategic Implications
The new defence treaty will have the most serious impact on the Asia Pacific region and the two strongest allies of the USA there, South Korea and Japan.
South Korea has been under US security commitments since the Korean War of 1950, so it directly haunts the USA’s strategic interests. South Korea has already condemned the treaty and called it a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. It might be considering sending arms to Ukraine, an act from which South Korea has refrained until now.
Japan, which has also been under the USA’s security umbrella since the Second World War, is now moving towards a military might strategy due to the changing security dynamics of the region.
Response by the USA
USA choices are now very limited options in this divided and conflict-ridden world with suspicion against the USA all over the world. It can only double down on the sanctions on North Korea and Russia while strengthening the relationship with Japan and South Korea through bilateral and trilateral means. However, Russia will only test the USA’s nerves and commitments by making defence treaties in regions where the USA’s primary strategic interests are at stake.
Conclusion
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Putin has been following the tit-for-tat strategy and strengthening his relations with countries that are at odds with the USA. Moscow and China are working together for a new international order at the expanse of US hegemony and values. The comprehensive strategic partnership pact between Moscow and Pyongyang will also increase Kim Jun-un’s urge to ignore world opinion against the buildup of weapons of mass destruction, with Russia’s veto.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
He is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, at the University of Peshawar. He is interested in Asia-Pacific, Middle Eastern, and European politics.