Pakistan is rich in mineral resources and is estimated to possess significant deposits of gold, copper, and other minerals. However, the mineral development sector remains underdeveloped. The country is unable to capitalise on its own mineral resources. This is best illustrated in Balochistan, home to Reko Diq, considered to be the world’s fifth-largest gold mine and one of the world’s largest underdeveloped copper-gold deposits.
According to the Geological Survey of Pakistan, Reko Diq holds more than 3,000 million tonnes of mineralised material. This material possibly contains around 18 million tonnes of copper and 35 million ounces of gold, making Reko Diq a dynamic opportunity for Pakistan to translate its mineral wealth into economic assets. In spite of this, the economic gains through these locations with vast mineral resources are constrained by many structural and security challenges.
Reko Diq became one of the most significant projects, with hopes to increase the country’s foreign investment, exports, foreign exchange, and employment opportunities. At the same time, the mining sector in Pakistan is not thriving as it should. The mining operations, infrastructure development, and logistics are at risk due to persistent militancy and instability in the province. This ultimately leads to negative economic consequences for the country. Therefore, the insecurity in Pakistan inhibits the exploitation of its own resources.
The Evolution of Reko Diq
Reko Diq, meaning “sandy dunes” in the Balochi language, is a significant project not merely because of its conventional gold mine but also because of vast mineral resources. In 1993, the Balochistan Development Authority (BDA) and BHP Minerals International Exploration entered into an agreement called the Chagai Hills Exploration Joint Venture Agreement (CHEJVA). Through the 2006 novation agreement, Tethyan Copper Company (TCC) later replaced BHP.
During 2011, the project was halted due to a dispute over the mining lease agreement between Pakistan and TCC, where the Supreme Court of Pakistan declared the agreements invalid in 2013. TCC initiated international arbitration. ICSID ruled against Pakistan. In July 2019, an ICSID tribunal awarded approximately $5.97 billion against Pakistan in damages. This episode created a significant fiscal and reputational issue. Nevertheless, in 2022, Barrick Company, the Balochistan government, and the government of Pakistan restarted the project and reconstituted the framework. The reconstitution was completed in December 2022.
According to the reconstitution, Barrick owns 50%; 25% is owned by three Pakistani federal state-owned enterprises; and 25% by the Balochistan government. By 2025, the project moved closer to implementation as shareholders approved the updated feasibility study and Phase 1 development. First production of Phase 1 was expected by the end of 2028, but the progress was disrupted in 2026 over security issues.
In April 2026, Barrick announced it would slow the development and extend the review until mid-2027 due to security concerns in the region. This latest setback highlights that the decade-long efforts to potentially start and maximise the profits from Reko Diq are affected by the security environment of the province. Therefore, the development of the project cannot be assessed in isolation from the wider security conditions of the province.
Why Does Reko Diq Matter?
Copper is an essential metal used in electricity, power grids, renewable energy technology, electric vehicles, construction, and industrial manufacturing. According to Barrick’s NI 43-101 technical report, Reko Diq contains approximately 14.6 million tonnes of contained copper on a 100% project basis. For Barrick, Reko Diq is a Tier One copper project. The project is vital for foreign exchange earnings through mineral exports and will also encourage foreign investors to examine and explore other mineral deposits.
Reko Diq also provides opportunities for the government to collect royalties and taxes, which can be converted into a long-term revenue stream. Furthermore, since Balochistan has a direct share under the reconstituted agreement, it can consequently improve the economy of the province. Barrick estimates producing 7,500 jobs during the construction period and 4,000 long-term jobs once the project is operational. It is to be noted that construction of roads, power management, water supply, and transportation are prerequisites for mining development; i.e., Reko Diq is expected to support investment that can improve the infrastructure of the province.
Security Challenges
Balochistan is known for decades-long insurgencies and militant violence. Separatist groups like the BLA have posed security challenges for projects like CPEC as well. They are known for attacking security forces, damaging infrastructure, targeting foreign nationals, and hampering the development of projects in the province. The vulnerability of such projects originates mainly from the remoteness of sites and the necessity of extensive physical infrastructure, which is geographically dispersed. This also requires water supply systems, logistics networks, power infrastructure and, most importantly, the accommodation and transportation of workers.
In a highly insecure environment such as that of Balochistan, a project like Reko Diq, therefore, faces numerous security challenges which inhibit the country’s efforts to capitalise on its own resources. The security risks in the region are not hypothetical; they have been demonstrated through a series of incidents across the Chagai region which ultimately led to Barrick’s decision to slow the project down on the basis of security. However, the security situation in Balochistan has deteriorated further in recent years.
The security situation in the region deteriorated in January 2026, when a major wave of militant attacks occurred at multiple locations in the province, including Dalbandin, which is in the Chagai district. According to ISPR, 18 civilians and 15 security personnel were killed while 92 militants were killed during the operations across Dalbandin, Quetta, Panjgur, Tump, Mastung, Nushki and Gwadar. Barrick’s decision to slow the project activities came after these events.
However, the series of events exacerbated the security problems of the province. For instance, in October 2025, an intelligence-based operation was conducted in Dalbandin, Chagai, by security forces, which resulted in the killing of six militants. Similarly, on April 22, 2026, a copper-gold mining project under National Resources Limited (NRL), the Darigwan site in Chagai, was attacked by an armed group, killing ten people, including a Turkish national and two security guards. This highlights that mining workers were vulnerable in the district of Chagai.
The events are not limited to operations between security forces and militants; instead, workers from other parts of the country are also targeted. Such an incident occurred on 28 April 2026, when five labourers from Punjab were attacked in Dalbandin. The attackers threw a grenade at a house, which injured them. The transport infrastructure in the region is highly vulnerable too. On 20 June, 2026, three officials were abducted from an excise checkpost on the Dalbandin-Taftan Highway by 30 armed men. It is to be noted that Reko Diq depends on transport infrastructure and safe movement of workers and supplies.
The issue with security was on the government’s agenda before the recent escalation. For example, the prime minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, ordered foolproof security for Reko Diq’s personnel in March 2024.
Implications of Security Risks
Security issues also have a direct impact on economic conditions. The unstable security environment in Balochistan has created a fiscal burden for the government. For instance, in February 2025, the Interior Division requested Rs 1.8 billion for security arrangements for the project while 700 security officials were deployed to watch over the project. The Finance Division approved Rs 257 million initially for security purposes.
As of June 2026, the government of Pakistan and Barrick were reviewing the upgraded security requirements of the project, increasing the security costs of the multi-billion-dollar project. Since the security situation in the region has deteriorated, Barrick’s decision to slow down the development work and extend the project review until mid-2027 illustrates that a longer timeline may increase the project cost more than it was originally estimated and also delay project completion.
According to Barrick, the previously estimated capital budget could see “significant increases.” The estimated capital cost of Phase 1 of the project is around $5.6-6.0 billion, while Phase 2’s estimated capital cost is around $3.3-3.6 billion. Barrick has explicitly acknowledged that the security review could affect these budgets. Pakistan has also proposed more than Rs46 billion for security during the construction of the Rohri-Taftan railway in relation to the ML-3 railway project, which will support the Reko Diq mining project. The rail line is vital for the transport of minerals from the mines and indicates a wider infrastructure cost of securing the project.
Insecurity has led to high security expenditure, which eventually adds to the high operational and development costs of the project. Insecurity has also produced high investment risks, which can slow project development, as evident in the case of Reko Diq. Delayed production can ultimately lead to delayed exports and revenues, which affects economic development and defers the realisation of economic benefits.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Meharwar Najam is a writer with an MPhil in International Relations. Her academic and professional interests span geopolitics, foreign policy, and political philosophy. She has taught IR, current affairs and Pakistan studies, and writes on contemporary geopolitical and strategic issues.
