Trump’s Favorite Foreign Partner? The Rise of the Trump–Erdoğan Alliance
Donald Trump has pretty testy relationships with other world leaders, with fallouts and blowups with traditional allies a pretty regular feature of his tenure, particularly in his second term, but one person who can seemingly do no wrong in Trump’s eyes is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In the past week, it’s been reported that the Trump administration is pushing ahead with more than $700 million worth of jet engine sales to the Turkish military, and he expressed optimism about bringing Turkey back into the US’s F-35 fighter jet program, which would represent a big win for Erdoğan. Similarly, Trump told reporters that he’s only going to this month’s NATO summit because Erdoğan is hosting it. Considering that there are many potential tensions in the US-Turkey relationship, from ongoing democratic backsliding to Erdoğan’s vociferous criticism of Israel and support of Hamas, Trump’s affinity for Erdoğan is pretty eyebrow-raising.
When Trump was asked about this and the possibility of Turkey being brought back into the F-35 program, Trump said, “I’m going to probably do something that will make Erdogan very happy.” For context, back in Trump’s first term in 2019, the US imposed sanctions on Turkey and removed the country from the US’s F-35 fighter jet program as mandated by an act of Congress in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system. This has remained a sore point in US-Turkey relations as it’s frustrated Turkey’s efforts to modernize its air force. So, any move by Trump to bring Turkey back into the fold would be warmly welcomed by Erdogan. Meanwhile, it was good news for Turkey last month when a US judge signed off on a deal struck by the Trump administration that ended the US Justice Department’s prosecution of Turkey’s state-owned Halk Bank, which had been charged in 2019 with helping Iran evade American sanctions. The deal came after a meeting between Trump and Erdogan last year and sees the bank make no admission of criminal wrongdoing while committing to not engaging in transactions that benefit Iran.
Behind the Friendship: Power, Pragmatism, and the Politics of Strongmen
Trump’s reaction to Erdogan’s domestic and foreign policy is pretty notable, too. Trump has offered virtually no pushback to Turkey’s human rights record and Erdogan’s continued crackdown on the country’s political opposition. Instead, Trump regularly touts his friendship with Erdogan, saying that he likes him and that he’s a great leader and a very strong person. Trump has even been happy to praise the Turkish president in front of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu despite the fact that Netanyahu really does not like Erdogan.
After Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has close ties to Turkey, took power in late 2024, Trump suggested, but not in a way that was critical of Erdogan, that Turkey had engineered an unfriendly takeover of Syria, proving that Erdogan was, quote, very smart and very tough. There are many more quotes we could go through, but the point is that Trump is clearly a fan of Erdogan. So, the question now is why? A similar explanation is that Trump and Erdogan just do genuinely seem to get on with each other, and this does appear to be true. There’s also a theory that he has an affinity for strongman leaders, which is pretty well documented as well. The logic here is that Trump therefore admires how Erdoğan has consolidated power, and that criticism of Turkey’s democratic backsliding simply doesn’t resonate with Trump as a negative factor in their relationship.
Trump has been pretty open about why he likes Erdoğan so much, saying last week that everything I’ve ever asked him for, he’s done. Trump added that Turkey had been a prime contender to join the war in Iran on Iran’s side, and that he therefore asked Erdoğan to stay out, and, quote, he stayed out. Now, Trump’s claim that Erdoğan has done everything that he’s ever asked for is characteristically hyperbolic, and there’s not really any evidence that Turkey was on the verge of joining the war.
Nevertheless, the broad point that Erdoğan has positioned himself as a real Trump pleaser does stand. He has backed several Trump’s foreign policy ventures. For instance, Turkey signed up to Trump’s board of peace and signaled its willingness to take part in the Gaza international stabilization force. Erdoğan has also been very careful not to publicly criticize Trump, which is even more notable when you consider that Erdoğan is not exactly known for his rhetorical restraint. Trump, like many other world leaders, may also recognize the importance of Turkey, and therefore Erdoğan, as a partner. Straddling both Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is a big diplomatic and military player in both regions, playing important roles in the Ukraine war and post-Assad Syria.
Between Allies and Adversaries: Why Trump’s Turkey Policy Is Sparking Controversy
Based on his comments, it seems like Trump respects Turkey’s military capabilities, and perhaps he recognizes the important role that Turkey can play in filling any vacuum left by US military withdrawal from either Europe or the Middle East. So, those are several reasons why Trump likes Erdoğan so much. However, we should conclude by making clear that for basically everyone else, this is a pretty controversial relationship. Back home in the US, Trump’s chumminess with Erdoğan has upset not just the Democrats, but also Republicans. For example, Trump ally and Fox News host Mark Levin reacted to the jet engine news by saying, “Stop giving our best technology away to Islamist nut job Erdoğan.”
Similarly, four Republican lawmakers, all Greek Americans, said that they were deeply concerned about the reports, adding that Turkey continues to be a destabilizing force in the region through its expansive and disputed maritime claims, continued illegal occupation of Cyprus, and rhetorical demonization of Israel. Democratic lawmakers, meanwhile, reacted to the Halk Bank deal with outrage, saying that the bank’s sanctions evasion scheme has been a critical financial lifeline to the Iranian regime. Trump’s closeness to Erdoğan also has implications for the US-Israel relationship, given the historically bad relations between Turkey and Israel right now, with the two countries clashing over influence in Syria, the genocide in Gaza, and Erdoğan’s backing of Hamas. In fact, in a bid to up the ante against Turkey, the Israeli government last week recognized the Armenian genocide of the early 20th century. It remains to be seen exactly how far Trump will go to please Erdoğan, but if his actions live up to his rhetoric, he will face staunch opposition from allies and adversaries alike, from Washington to Jerusalem to Athens.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Muhammad Haseeb Sulehria is a student of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University, and a former internee at Pakistan’s Ministry of Defense. With a keen interest in national and international affairs, he actively explores issues of security, strategy, and global politics, aspiring to contribute to policymaking and peacebuilding.
