The Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty and Its Strategic Implications for Pakistan

Introduction

The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960, was a historical water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan mediated by the World Bank. It regulates the use of the six rivers that make up the Indus Water system, which are essential for both countries’ livelihood, hydropower, and agriculture. Despite withstanding numerous wars and political unrest for over 60 years, the agreement has been recognized as one of the most effective global water-sharing agreements. However, recent events, such as India’s temporary suspension of the Indus Water Treaty in the wake of the Pahalgam valley attack, have raised questions about the future. The suspension has major implications for Pakistan’s security, economy, and diplomacy; the suspension marks a paradigm shift in regional water politics.

The Indus Water Treaty: An Overview

The roots of the Indus Water Treaty can be traced back to the 1947 partition of British India, which divided major rivers such as the Indus and its tributaries that encompassed newly created countries. Tensions increased after 1948, when India cut off the water supply to Pakistani canals. In order to ease the conflict, the World Bank stepped in in 1950 and proposed a plan for fairly distributing the Indus water system. The treaty was finally signed in Karachi by President Ayub Khan and Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru after nearly nine years of tough negotiations.

The treaty split the six rivers of the India Basin between the two nations. The three eastern rivers, the Sultej, Beas, and Ravi, were given to India, while the three western rivers that supply nearly more than 80% of the water in the shared basin—the Indus, Jehlum, and Chenab—were given to Pakistan.

According to the treaty, India is not permitted to store or divert the western rivers’ flows in ways that would reduce Pakistan’s access, but it is allowed to use them for activities like limited irrigation and hydropower generation. These limitations are intentionally precise and enforceable, which include everything from engineering design elements to notification protocols. For Pakistan, the treaty offers Pakistan more than water. It provides the consistency required to construct a complete irrigation and water management system.

Despite mistrust and constant military disputes, both countries upheld the treaty for decades, using its procedures to settle the agreement peacefully. Its longevity serves as a global example for allocating shared resources even in conflict, illustrating that practical needs and international mediation can pave the way for collaboration. Concisely, the treaty serves as a thriving example of peaceful coexistence, a model agreement, and economic development for both countries.

World Bank Role as a Mediator

The World Bank played a significant role in resolving the India-Pakistan dispute over water. It didn’t just provide financial and technical support, but it also provided a platform where both countries could negotiate, talk, and feel that their apprehensions were taken seriously. Its engagement went beyond the negotiations and also supported the treaty as a guarantor and demonstrated its steadfast dedication to maintaining regional peace and stability. 

Paradigm Shift: India’s Suspension as a Strategic Move

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by India marks a paradigm shift in its relationship with Pakistan. Given that Pakistan depends on the Indus water for its survival, the decision could cause chaos and unrest in the state and put the two nuclear-armed countries in danger of full-scale conflict shortly. This move is not just about the water; it’s a symbolic and strategic step that illustrates how India is ready to rethink the past agreements when its security is at stake, especially after the Pahalgam attack.

The suspension of the agreement marks a turning point in South Asian diplomacy and incorporates a new level of tension where water is seen more as a strategic tool than as a necessity for cooperation. From a political perspective, this move marks a major break from the longstanding tradition of upholding the treaty even during times of war and disputes. It is not just a response to the Phalagam attack, but it’s a potent symbol that now India is willing to use its critical resources like water as part of its strategy to counter persistent attacks against cross-border terrorism.

Throughout the years, the Indus Water Treaty was hailed for decades as a collaboration model. Undoubtedly, it was the only bilateral agreement that persisted unhindered even during full-scale conflict. There is precedent for the Indian government’s recent decision to suspend the treaty, particularly in the growing frustration over frequent terrorist attacks. Pakistan, already tussling with an increasing water crisis fueled by population growth, climate stress, and poor management, now even faces a greater threat. Because the Indus River system is essential for agriculture, limiting its flow could cause political unrest and economic disruption. India is threatening to hold Pakistan accountable by suspending the treaty as a political signal and pressure tactic. However, the shift creates further complications for India, including international scrutiny, retaliatory escalation, and the possibility for Pakistan to use this as an excuse to shift its stance on the Kashmir or water issue.

Strategic Implications for Pakistan

India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty threatens regional peace, economic stability, and water security and poses serious strategic challenges for Pakistan. Pakistan’s water security is at risk as over 80% of its agricultural output and about a third of its hydropower is reliant on water from the Indus Basin. Pakistan’s current shortages could be made worse by India holding onto water in its reservoirs until at least September 2025, which would add uncertainty to water flows. Pakistan’s irrigation system, one of the world’s largest, relies heavily on predictable water flows from western rivers; any disruption in this rhythm may result in issues like missed planting windows, reduced yields, and increased expenses. Due to fewer freshwater flows, the Indus Delta is already getting smaller, and more uncertainty could hasten the process.

For instance, the Tarbela Dam’s water levels are already 20-25% as compared to 2024 as a result of climate stress and delayed glacier melt. Since water from glacier melting is anticipated to start on May 15 may disrupt the timing of rice and cotton sowing cycles. Any shortfall in the river’s timing could lead to difficult decisions regarding the distribution of water, which could exacerbate tensions between provinces like Punjab and Sindh, both of which are in disagreement over water sharing. The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty makes these disagreements worse.

Islamabad currently faces a 30% water shortage, with canals being the primary source. According to experts, India cannot stop all of the water from melting glaciers, but Pakistan needs adequate storage until September 30, 2025. To produce kharif and rabi crops. These developments could have a significant impact on Pakistan.

Punjab and Sindh, being the backbone of agriculture, produce almost 7 million bales of cotton and 10 million tonnes of rice and rely heavily on sowing cycles. Water scarcity could reduce cotton yields and lower the quality of basmati rice, which could jeopardize Pakistan’s position on a global scale.

Beyond agriculture, energy is also at risk; the water that flows through Tarbela, Mangla, and other reservoirs produces hydropower, which accounts for one-third of Pakistan’s electricity. Reductions or poorly timed upstream flows may reduce the capacity of generation, and this shortage could lead to the import of coal, which could potentially cause a strain on its foreign exchange reserves. In a country already grappling with water scarcity, this new wave adds another level of uncertainty and could push the state even closer to a tipping point, putting immense pressure on its social, political, and economic stability across multiple fronts.

Conclusion

Beyond merely being a political move, the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty fundamentally threatens Pakistan’s existence. Water, which was once a rare link between the two adversaries, is now a battlefield. The farmers who wait for the right rains, the families who rely on electricity to light their homes, and the generations who have depended on the steady flow of the Indus for life itself are all part of Pakistan’s story, which goes beyond the rivers and reservoirs. Water shortages, escalating provincial tensions, economic strain, and increasing economic instability are among the major risks that lie ahead. However, Pakistan can address these challenges by investing in strengthening its diplomacy, building resilience, and investing in smarter water management. Protecting resources and ensuring future generations thrive is essential in these uncertain times.

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