The Chenab River, a significant component of the hydrological system of Pakistan, is gasping. The vital inflows of the Chenab River that sustain ecosystems, irrigate millions of acres, and run power turbines are dwindling at a catastrophic rate. Several reasons can be associated with this alarming situation, like domestic infrastructural inefficiencies and climate change impacts, but the most prominent these days is India’s upstream water development. This deepening crisis demands unified action and strong strategic policy interventions for its mitigation before the consequences, which are rooted in geopolitical tensions and environmental factors, become irreversible.
A Stark Warning: Recent Inflow Reductions
A dramatic decrease in water flows into the Chenab River from India was reported by WAPDA in the last week of May 2025. In only two days, a reduction of 91,000 cusecs was observed at the Marala Headworks, where inflows plummeted from nearly 98,200 cusecs on May 29 to just 7,200 cusecs by May 31. In some instances, officials confirmed that the passage of the river into Pakistan was blocked owing to the closing of the gates of upstream dams, Baglihar and Salal, and the flow dropped to a level as low as 3,100 cusecs.
Indus Waters Treaty in Abeyance
The recent decline in water flows is observed as a consequence of the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by India, followed by a deadly attack, causing the death of 27 in IOJK. According to this famous water treaty of 1960, eastern rivers were allocated to India, and Pakistan controls the western rivers, including the Chenab. Apart from this distribution of rivers, this treaty permits India to have limited use of Pakistan’s western rivers for useful purposes such as hydroelectric power generation. India constructed several dams, such as Baglihar, Ratle, and Salal, which Pakistan claims are run-of-the-river. Thus, they control the quantity and timing of water flows to Pakistan during critical periods associated with crop sowing.
The major cause of slow water flows is the suspension of the IWT, but several other factors further deteriorate the situation. The most prominent factor is climate change, which causes “glacier retreat” by reducing the “frozen reservoir” of the Himalayas, feeding the rivers, and disrupting precipitation patterns as evaporation rates increase when temperature increases. In the same manner, uncontrolled deforestation in the catchment area reduces the ability of the watershed to retain water and regulate its flow. Pollution targets water quality further.
The irrigation practices followed in Pakistan are also inefficient. Aging canal infrastructure and its poor maintenance have badly impacted the storage capacity of these systems. The efficiency of these structures, especially in the Marala Barrage, is further reduced by sediment buildup, which amplifies the effects of reduced inflows. Water waste and a lack of modern technologies for water conservation further exacerbate the scarcity issue.
The Devastating Domino Effect
The dire consequences of reduced Chenab inflows are significant, and the most prominent one is their impact on agricultural productivity. Since the fertile plains of Punjab are heavily dependent on Chenab irrigation, crop yields are facing immediate threats. The vulnerability of water-intensive crops such as rice, sugarcane, cotton, and kharif crops is potentially at risk of significant shortfalls.
Since agriculture is regarded as the backbone of the economy of Pakistan, the loss of productivity impacts GDP and causes national food insecurity. Rural livelihood is also affected badly by this loss.
An energy emergency has been created in the country where hydropower dams are running out of water, and Pakistan is on the verge of a chronic energy crisis. Stalled Industries, dark homes, and the grinding down of all economic activities are linked with the failing health of the Chenab River. The ecological consequences of this cannot be ignored. Severe reduction in wetland areas, disruption of aquatic habitats, and elevation of groundwater salinity are attributed to these lower river flows. They are diminishing biodiversity and compromising the river basin’s natural resilience.
Desperation is breeding under water scarcity as competition for resources increases, igniting tensions among agricultural and urban users’ communities at lower levels and provinces at higher levels. The conflict over water has great national and international potential, leading to social unrest.
Apart from all these national issues, geopolitical tensions arise from these patterns. The intensification of apprehensions of Pakistan against India’s policies over water is also an aftereffect of the decline in Chenab inflows. The bilateral tensions can be inflamed further by the violations of the Indus Water Treaty. The already fraught relationship between Pakistan and India further deteriorates, with water emerging as a contentious issue.
The Indus Water Treaty: A Strained Lifeline?
The allocation of rivers was decided in the IWT of 1960, in which the Chenab River was declared to belong to Pakistan. However, the treaty mechanisms are inadequate cumulatively to address the current flow reduction issues due to climate change or as a result of upstream projects. The coagulation of diplomatic channels is observed in the sequence of accusations and counter-accusations. The lack of trust makes it difficult for the technical committees to keep pace with the challenges of the 21st century. Thus, an urgent review of this treaty is needed to ensure the incorporation of climate realities and real-time flow data sharing.
The Imperative for Action
The Chenab crisis demands immediate, multi-pronged, and collaborative strategies.
At the national level, massive investment is required to construct new reservoirs and reactivate the older ones, such as the Kalabagh debate, if a consensus can be reached to cope with water storage. The reduction in seepage by advancements in lining canals, promotion of drought-resistant crops, and precision irrigation is non-negotiable. Apart from this, there is a critical need for reforestation programs and watershed management in the catchment areas.
At the international level, the revitalization of the Indus Water Treaty is required. A science-based, high-level dialogue must be the priority of both India and Pakistan. For treaties to evolve and risks to become obsolete, a joint real-time monitoring mechanism must be established with great transparency. A technical commission can be created with climate scientists to assess impacts and get recommendations for water-sharing adjustments during periods of significant climate-induced scarcity.
In the same manner, regional water diplomacy can be highlighted by engaging China and other international bodies to tackle the issue of water scarcity and the impact of climate change.
Both nations need aggressive water policies focused on reducing, reusing, recycling agricultural waste, and modernizing infrastructure. Public awareness campaigns can also play a vital role.
A River Dying, a Future at Stake
This reduction in Chenab inflows can be seen as a deafening alarm bell. It signals the collision of geopolitical friction, climate change, and unsustainable water management. Ignoring it threatens regional stability, leads millions to hardship, and sacrifices a vital ecosystem. Saving the Chenab cannot be taken as just saving a river; it is about securing the future of South Asia. But, it demands strong visionary leadership, transparent cooperation, and a fundamental shift in the valuing and managing of our most precious water resource. It is the time of action now before the last drop of the legacy of Chenab flows away.
If you want to submit your articles and/or research papers, please visit the Submissions page.
To stay updated with the latest jobs, CSS news, internships, scholarships, and current affairs articles, join our Community Forum!
The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Qandeel Fatima is a Lecturer of Chemistry at the University of Mianwali. Alongside her dedication to teaching and research, she remains deeply engaged with Pakistan's socio-political landscape and global dynamics, believing that scientific thinking must inform public policy for meaningful national progress. As a committed aspirant of CSS and PMS, she aims to combine her scientific knowledge with public service.