A History of Transactional Ties: The Fluctuating Pak-US Relationship
In a recent development, the United States has declared the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the Majeed Brigade as foreign terrorist organizations, marking another diplomatic win for Pakistan in its rising global diplomatic stature. Relations between Pakistan and the United States have always been transactional. The on-again, off-again trajectory has been the hallmark of the bilateral relations between the United States and Pakistan. Both states once enjoyed the closest relations, but later experienced almost complete disengagement.
This is mainly because Pak-US relations primarily operated on crises and could not be built independently and bilaterally. Since the inception of the former, Washington has enhanced its relations with Islamabad whenever it needed a strong ally in South Asia to counter regional threats. Once the storms subsided, the relationship was downgraded as US strategic priorities shifted. When states interact in a particular crisis, they are bound to have significant expectations from each other, which mostly fall short, and the blame game continues.
The same pattern repeated after the United States’ embarrassing and hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Pakistan witnessed a rapid surge in terrorism throughout the country soon after its alignment with the United States in its “War on Terror.” The country’s economic, social, and cultural fabric was tarnished due to this rising wave of terrorism. From 2000 to 2014, Pakistan suffered an economic loss of $106.98 due to terrorism, while the US aid provided to the country was merely a drop in the ocean compared to these losses. In addition, Pakistan suffered the loss of 80,000 lives due to terrorism.
However, the United States used Pakistan as a scapegoat to veil its embarrassment after its shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan. Many US analysts and politicians blamed Pakistan for the US failure in Afghanistan. In his first term, the US President Donald Trump also accused Pakistan of providing safe havens to terrorists. Islamabad refuted all such claims and showed its disappointment over such sham claims and misinterpretations of facts.
Strategic Shifts: China’s Rise and Its Impact on Regional Alliances
Pakistan’s burgeoning relations with China were also among the major causes of increasing proximity between Washington and Islamabad. China’s rapid rise as an economic power and its expanding global influence pose a direct threat to the United States’ global hegemony and its unipolar world order. Pak-China strategic and military engagement also infuriated the United States. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded its diplomatic clout to three continents.
Pakistan hosts BRI’s flagship project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The US establishment wanted Pakistan to suspend this project. However, the latter’s repeated denial of this US demand further widened the diplomatic gulf between the two sides. The United States strengthened its relations with India to counter Beijing’s rising influence in the region. However, the Modi government totally failed to assist Washington in achieving its regional ambitions.
Diplomatic and Military Breakthrough: Pakistan’s Victory in the Indo-Pak War
On the other hand, Pakistan’s decisive victory in the recent India-Pakistan war raised the country’s diplomatic and military stature around the world. Pakistan emerged as one of the strongest regional and global military powers after this war. The United States and other global powers acknowledged Pakistan’s military strength after this war. Moreover, the war shunned India’s propaganda of Pakistan’s diplomatic isolation. Many regional and extra-regional powers showed unwavering diplomatic support to Pakistan during this conflict. On the other hand, India emerged as a diplomatically isolated country after this war. Even Russia—India’s closest and long-term ally—did not show any diplomatic support to New Delhi during this war.
The reason behind Pakistan’s diplomatic success during this war was its positive political posturing over the past few years. Pakistan has emerged as a torchbearer of peace and inclusivity around the world. The United States realizes that close ties with a rising power like Pakistan would help it maintain its regional influence. US President Donald Trump acknowledged the Pakistani military and civilian leadership’s positive role in establishing peace in South Asia after the recent ceasefire between Pakistan and India. He also invited Pakistan’s chief of army staff, Syed Asim Munir, to the White House for an official dinner.
The two leaders discussed a wide range of regional and global issues, including the Israel-Iran war. President Trump acknowledged Pakistan’s understanding of the regional geopolitics. Allegedly, Pakistan mediated between the warring parties to establish a ceasefire between them, further elevating the country’s international diplomatic standing. The Trump-Asim summit not only infuriated India but also further enhanced Pakistan’s diplomatic stature manifold. The two sides demonstrated their desire to further strengthen their bilateral relations.
India’s Diplomatic Isolation and Sponsorship of Terror
In a striking development, the United States announced it would expand bilateral trade and economic ties. Moreover, the two sides agreed to develop oil reserves. The Trump administration also agreed to invest in the country’s natural resources, rare earth minerals, and fledgling crypto industry. This is the first time that the relations between the two sides are built independently and bilaterally. On the other hand, the United States has imposed 50 percent tariffs on India. The reason behind these high US tariffs on India is the latter’s arrogant and foolish diplomacy. Moreover, New Delhi’s incessant terrorist attacks in the United States and Canada have also diminished its global diplomatic stature. These state-sponsored terrorist activities have also exposed the BJP’s extremist ideology.
The Indian government’s denial of Trump’s mediation between India and Pakistan during their recent war has also deteriorated India-US relations. According to some reports, the Indian government requested the US officials to mediate between India and Pakistan to de-escalate the situation. However, after severe criticism from the Indian citizens over the shameful defeat in the India-Pakistan war, the Modi government denied Trump’s claims of mediation between the two South Asian nuclear powers, further worsening ties between the two sides.
The Indian establishment has long been supporting terrorist groups operating in Pakistan, including the TTP and BLA. The arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian spy, in Balochistan, is one of the greatest pieces of evidence of India’s state-sponsored terrorist activities. In a confessional statement, he stated, “My purpose was to hold meetings with Baloch insurgents and carry out activities with their collaboration. These activities have been of [a] criminal nature, leading to the killing or maiming of Pakistani citizens.” Pakistan’s civilians and military have repeatedly accused India of providing financial and military support to Baloch insurgents. The medical treatment of Aslam Baloch, a BLA leader and mastermind of the attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, in an Indian hospital, also shows New Delhi’s support for the Baloch insurgents.
India’s support for these terrorist and separatist organizations has multiple underlying objectives. New Delhi is openly against the CPEC, which it perceives as a threat to its sovereignty and security. BLA and TTP have conducted multiple terrorist attacks on Chinese engineers working on the CPEC to sabotage the project. The Modi government also seeks to work on its fanatic agenda of creating Akhand Bharat, an ideology advocating the reunification of the Indian subcontinent, encompassing Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives, Pakistan, Nepal, Tibet, and Sri Lanka. Therefore, it seeks to destabilize Pakistan through separatist movements and insurgencies like BLA, Majeed Brigade, and TTP.
US Designation of BLA and Majeed Brigade: A Strategic Diplomatic Win
The recent US labeling of BLA and Majeed Brigade as foreign terrorist organizations is one of Pakistan’s biggest diplomatic victories in recent years. In an official statement, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the move “demonstrates the Trump Administration’s commitment to countering terrorism. Terrorist designations play a critical role in our fight against this scourge and are an effective way to curtail support for terrorist activities.” This suggests that the United States has accepted Pakistan’s narrative about the Baloch insurgents, increasing diplomatic hardships for India. Moreover, Pakistan can now use the evidence of Indian support for these groups to counter New Delhi’s international propaganda against the country.
Furthermore, this new designation by the Trump administration makes it a crime for people residing in the United States to provide any type of support to these terrorist organizations. This move also implies that Pakistan can now counter these insurgencies more effectively due to international recognition. Moreover, Pakistan can also gain US support to counter these insurgencies. In addition, the propaganda of the allies of these insurgents about human rights violations will have no international standing after this designation. In sum, Pakistan’s diplomatic stature has risen to an unprecedented level during the recent few months, and it has emerged as a key regional player due to its diplomatic and military victory against India in the recent war. However, Pakistan must tread carefully in its engagement with the United States, given the latter’s history of strategic betrayals.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.
Muhammad Hamza Tanvir is a political analyst specialising in South Asian and Middle Eastern affairs. His work focuses on religious nationalism, regional security, and minority rights. He has been featured in Stratheia, Pakistan Today, Pakistan Observer, and the Asian Mirror. He is also working as a research analyst and political commentator for Paradigm Shift and contributes to the monthly magazine of Nearpeer